For all you who thought cattle couldn't go down

[ALLFARMER]

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GF/

Quite the nasty little turn!

[grassfarmer]

Quite predictable though if you've been paying
attention all that's been going on in the world.

[tweaker101]

Any idea on how far down the prices will fall?...any crystal balls out there?, I had a crazy thought that I should buy a few more heifers and expand but that may be just nuts.

[kato]

I wouldn't call that exactly nasty. A cent an a half, if I'm reading it right. Wouldn't call it a crash by any means. The dip in December was followed by a long run up. Corrections happen.

I don't think the fundamentals have changed. There are still low cattle numbers, and I read a story about how the corn acres are supposed to go up. And I don't think cheap imports are an issue, since there are none to be had.

That's just my opinion based on experience. Maybe some market watching analyst types here have more input.

However, I can see those at the top of the chain who have the clout trying to do whatever it takes to drive cattle prices down. Profit margins are down, and heaven forbid they have to dip into the slush funds accumulated during the Great Cattle Robbery that's been going on since 2003.

[forage]

Kato , I cann't agree with you more. The sharks at the top of food chain are always playing games with prices they have to pay for cattle. Cann't wait on old Kaiser gets on the move with alternatives to the big boys. Question , just how much of a decline are we taking about. According to the radio Jack Daines says its the highest prices ever, of course Jack only wants the cattle in for the commission/

[grassfarmer]

My uneducated guess is a 10 cent drop on heavier
feeders, maybe 15 cents if things get uglier. Calves
less than 600lb going to grass should suffer less -
maybe a 5-10 cent slide? Fundamentals still look
sound to me, just time for a bit of a correction.

[smcgrath76]

This speaks to marketing psychology at
it's finest. We don't plan to hit the top
of the market, but we know our costs and
plan to sell for more than our cost.
Currently we have a lot of downside before
I am too worried. No one officially takes
a loss until they sell them (LOL).

[kato]

We've gone through enough feeders to have learned not to obsess about how much we "could" have gotten. You could drive yourself crazy doing that. We know our costs, we know what we need, we know what it would take to make us happy, and if we hit all those marks, we take the money and move on. If not, well, there's always the next batch.

Would'a could'a is a bad road to go down.

Whatever prices do, they'll be above last year, I'd bet. There will be the occasional try by some at firing up some bad psychology, but that's likely just an attempt to drive down inputs. Put a scare out there, see if you can pick up some cheaper feeders. I still say the fundamentals haven't changed.

[tweaker101]

Kato you sure said that well!, all my neighbours thought we were nuts for buying steers this fall. But we knew what our costs were going to be and we were carefull and in the end we did okay...had a few sleepless nights..LOL

[kato]

We won't know until ours go, probably before the end of the month. Thanks to some serious bench time at the auction mart, Hubby kept the price in line, and the warm weather seems to have done good things for the gains.

It looks good for this batch, but we're really wondering if we have the nerve to replace them. As the prices get higher it gets scarier and scarier. We'll see.

[ProFarmer]

Hey if the price drops even a little the cowcalf producer will see it as a wobble in the market get gittery feet and dump some of these so called replacements and way gone are any chance of rebuilding the cow herd. It is all about buy low sell high. So many good farmers got fleeced the last time and memories may be short for some but not all..