Dispersals - Mulligan

[smcgrath76]

Thanks for the heads up ASRG. I have been noticing quite a few dispersals this
fall. Some large ones like Westwood, but some others that are long time cowherds.
My neighbours to the south MJT are dispersing as are Geis Angus (Bought one of my
first purebred cows from them when I was 12 years old). The interesting thing to
me is that some of these herds have been at it a long time. In the 2 examples
above it is since the mid 1950s.
Obviously personal issues and life choices come into play with any decision, but it
just trips my interest when I see long time and successful (commercially oriented)
operations moving out of the business. I doubt we have seen the end of this
either...

[brian99]

I think we might be close to the end. I've been looking around for decent cow dispersals and good cows are as rare as hens teeth. Lots of heifers though, if you like the work!

[grassfarmer]

End of what?
I agree with Sean's comments and see there are lots
and lots of decent sounding cows advertised. Maybe
another month before many of them are sold but if
you can't find good cows this year I think you must be
too picky.

[ALLFARMER]

I also was pretty surprised when I drove past the
Geis farm road and saw the sign. Brian is not that
old and has a very good business going.

Maybe the statistic that farmers never retire is
changing.

Must be that show International House Hunters
...they shop you around the nice places in the
world showing how affordable they are and how
nice the climate is. Farming not exactly the easy
life.

[ASRG]

Personally I think a lot of guys had a good hard look at where things were going when the latest gong show at XL took place?

Nothing much has changed since the BSE gong show? Same old screwed up CFIA and total lack of any accountability? No one lost their job. No politician walked the plank. Nilsson brothers may have lost a lot of money.....or maybe not!

Maybe these guys are thinking "okay....this gong show cost me some money. What's next? What has changed? When is the next wreck coming?"

Maybe it is a good time to walk away from an industry where the f-ups in government and industry make all the rules, don't do their jobs,.... and you get to foot the bill?

At the present time grain looks pretty good. Maybe they just came to the conclusion "who needs this crap"!

[brian99]

Damn rights I'm picky. Learned the hard way. By the way, anyone figured the cost in a replacement heifer starting this fall? Holy crap batman, you could easily spend over $1700 bringing a bred heifer to market next winter.

[smcgrath76]

A lot of the cattle in any herd don't suit me (including my own) but I will say there are a lot of good
cowherds with some good cattle in them going to town. I will be interested to see how many cows relocate
vs. how many disappear altogether, perhaps not as much on the purebred side as the commercial.
Brian99 - I think if most people were honest with their math and valued their labour $1700 would be pretty
cheap. I think that is why we keep hearing about a prolonged profitability and counter cyclical movements
in the industry due to drought. We may still be a couple of years away from the really expensive heifers
(one bought at the highs producing calves at the lows), barring any kind of market interruption over which
I am certain we have no predictive power anymore.
I think the reality is the way the industry is set up there are only two risk management strategies that
are really working. 1.- produce as cheap as humanly possible and 2.-exit the system and market differently
(see GF and RK examples).

[ASRG]

Lots of heifers for sale on the Alberta Ag site for $1700.
From the same site: May 25/12 heifers 800 lbs $1.20-$1.30.....so $960-$1040?
6 months pasture @$20/mo. $120
breeding $ 35
salt & min $ 15
selling costs & trucking $ 50
Labour ?
misc. ?

Depends a lot on how you allocate expenses?
I would suggest Brian Butterfield has a pretty good take on costs and profits and he is asking $1400 (1000 lb. blk hfrs bred to LLB bulls)? I don't think Brian breeds heifers to lose money?

[grassfarmer]

brian, paying higher prices gets you fancier looking
cows but are they more profitable?
I picked up a few bred tan char x cows around 2006
for $480 with the intention of calving them out and
selling them the following June. I've still got a third of
them and although they aren't the prettiest cows to
look at they are likely the most profitable cows on the
place. Their crossbred offspring are grossing over
$2000 at 17 months off grass in my retail beef
program.

[brian99]

Interesting numbers ASRG, but I was talking for next year. Higher feed costs and higher calf prices may squeeze the bred heifer seller. There were some pretty average 600 lb tan heifers sell in Strathmore this week for $1.52. I've seen lots of heifers around $1.40 and maybe it was a crazy sale, but that's where I started when I did my post.

Taking those heifers for arguments sake(($900)
backgrounding for 180 days ($350)
summer pasture(I'll use your number at $120, I cant get below $140 here) gets me to $1390. No bull, no death loss, no opens, no meds, to trucking, no labour, no salt etc.

All I was saying is it would be very easy to lose going forward selling bred heifers.

grassfarmer, I did the same thing a few years ago. A neighbour sold me his older cows for $475. He always sold cows by their age. I've sold triple that in calf value by now. Pretty cows don't pay the bills. $2000 sounds like a pretty good premium at the retail level, you didn't say what weight. If grain prices remain high, guys may have to learn how to grass finish again.

[ASRG]

brian: Yea, I know it's a bit different this year, I was just throwing those numbers out there.
I hear you on the $120 grass cost. I was going 2/3 of the cost of a cow/calf generally for my area.
At the presort sale on monday 600 lb heifers were up a fair bit from the week before to that $1.38-1.40 range....while 600 lb. steers stayed about the same at $1.48. So your $900 figure for really good heifers is probably pretty close.
I wonder if all the interest in breeding heifers to sell is guys who have sold their cows and don't want to do cow/calf anymore?

[grassfarmer]

No, $2000 isn't a pretty big premium at retail - the
professional retailers will probably be higher than
that selling commodity beef by the cut and adding
value to every little spare part. We are still essentially
giving away our livers and other organs to the
customers that want them. We are running about
615lb HCW this year, about 15lbs heavier than usual.