Crystal ball time

[kato]

Global warming and climate change may be a risk going forward for cattle producers, but that risk pales in comparison to what grain growers could face. They don't have nearly as much leeway and wriggle room with a canola crop as we do with our cattle. Top that with the massive money invested to produce those crops, and wow.. scarey stuff.

[grassfarmer]

No you've got it all wrong Kato - just ask the guys
over on the commodity forum. They are all buying
bigger trucks and tractors in an attempt to speed
global warming so their crops will grow faster.

[Kathy]

How do I "plan" to deal with artificial influences on the weather being perpetrated upon us and many regions by "private corporations" experimenting with "geo-engineering"?

The last two days (November 14 and 15) for example, started out with clear skies and warmer temperatures. I had to sit and watch the planes fly back and forth spreading chemtrails of God knows what. Over time these "trails" spread out to form a haze and blocked out the heat of the sun. (I have photos). Today, we are dealing with fog - which may have actually been snow, if not for the dissemination of the fine particulate by these planes.

This website provides alot of information for those who remain open to "observable" evidence:
http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/


This link:
http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/amazing-chemwebs-fall-france-nov-7-2012/

shows "chem webs" as they call them, falling from the sky in France on November 7, 2012. We experienced this as well one day in October (I'll have to check for the actual date); but it is exactly the same appearance. I phoned friends both east and west (12 to 20 miles away on each side of us) and they saw these webs falling as well.

Some people tried to pawn this off as baby spiders travelling on webs to their new homes.... But this can be ruled out by the total coverage distance and concentration of the substance. We collected some samples and hope to get them analyzed soon.

[Happytrails]

Sooo.. AF did you get your answers!!??

Cows can quickly go from being an asset to a liability if feed gets short. However if you've got the winter feed, grass, and ambition it looks like bred heifers or cows might yield a good profit this turn. The big guys don't like calving cows and a lot of the little guys are giving them up. I think there is a serious labor shortage in the cow-calf sector which might explain weak prices for bred stock. Lately the market for pairs in the spring has been pretty good. Good Luck.

[ALLFARMER]

Your very correct Happytrails about the labour
shortage in cattle, guys willing to do the job. We
just ran the herd thru for preg checking. Very glad
my 2 wealthy/young neighbors agreed to come
help out. Not a chance of them shifting from grain
and oilseed production to raising cattle. I do
though have only a small fraction of the debt they
have.

My take
When I look at back at what I sold calves for in the
last few years.....not even 500$ for a 600lb heifer
to now 725$ for a 450lb heifer and guys still
quitting?? I thought the number of cattle
producers in the business would stop going down
and come near stabilizing. The price of bred cattle
tells me thats not happening. The trend of less
and less producers is unabated.

JSB is now kicking the tires of the XL plant do
they want to be the 4th owner to try and make a
buck with this plant?

We're in a industry that's very close to being in
serious trouble. Its going to take spectacular calf
prices for herd numbers to rebuild. Is JBS going to
financially offer this incentive in a real way?
Canada is not going to supply JBS it's cheapest
container of beef to globally market.

[grassfarmer]

I'm so tired of this "industry" bull crap - industry this,
industry that. You aren't in the beef industry as long
as you sell weaned calves Allfarmer - you are in the
cattle business. With dwindling numbers of producers
and higher cattle prices why should we be close to
serious trouble? its exactly where we want to be if we
are to be successful. Don't worry about the "industry"
being in trouble - worry whether you can actually
produce a calf and leave a margin at the price you
quoted feeding for a 200 day winter.
Don't worry about JBS they know how to run beef
plants and they'll stay. You are right Canada is not
going to supply JBS it's cheapest container of beef to
globally market. Cattle producers may well supply JBS
with the cheapest Canadian beef going into a
container though.

[ALLFARMER]

The problem is packers can't afford to pay much
more for the cattle coming in. Paying more is what
they are going to have to do to run their plants
efficiently long term.

[ALLFARMER]

ASRG - how is the hog plant at Red Deer making
out? The volume of hogs comming in must be a
fraction of what they used to get. High feed costs
but now at least a lowering Canuck buck.

[ASRG]

I think they are still doing okay. They get pigs from all over... including lots from Saskatchewan.

[grassfarmer]

"The problem is packers can't afford to pay much
more for the cattle coming in." ....and you know that
how?

"Paying more is what they are going to have to do to
run their plants efficiently long term." ..... don't follow
the logic there.
Why would running a plant "efficiently" by which I
take it you mean at or near capacity be the goal?
Surely like the primary producer profitability should
be the goal? If you have to bid up cattle so that you
lose money on each one running the plant "efficiently"
(at capacity) what's the point?
I don't profess to know a lot about running a big meat
plant. I'll leave that to those who want to be involved
in that sector of the beef production chain. We should
probably just concentrate on running our cow/calf
operations profitably.