Crystal ball time

[ALLFARMER]

Since my prediction of 1700$ bred cows was flat
out wrong I ask a couple questions.

1) what are interest rates going to do over the
next five years? I am doing a loan and offered 4%
variable or 4.6% fixed for five? I am leaning
toward fixed 0.6 not much to pay as insurance.

2) do we up here in the great white north get rain
next year? If I knew this answer I would buy at
least another 30 bred cow closer to spring.

[Happytrails]

1. The .6% is cheap insurance.
2. Hope for the best and plan for the worst.

[ALLFARMER]

I figure tops another 2 years of low interest rates.

[15444]

I agree, cheap insurance.

Our drought locally was worse this year than last (9.6 inches of rain May 1st to Nov 1, as opposed to 12.1) and the southern boys tell me its been getting worse further north every year, so I am expecting just as bad, or worse next year.

I had a bunch of rockpiles buried this fall and the hoe dug down 10-12 feet (wanted 4 feet of cover). Clay was pure powder the entire way down. A huge dust plume would rise in the air when he shifted it around. Some people thought it looked like we were burning. Never has anyone seen clay get that dry.

So if the winter forecast is right (warm winter/low snow), we better get a flood next year, or 1/2 the cattle is this area will be gone. People are scraping-by with feed and water supplies this year, so doing with less next year will force changes.

[ALLFARMER]

I read an article that said tree rings are indicating
were due for a number of dry years.

In this area if you did down 10 feet you find a 3"
thick layer of willow/wood. This wood layer I hear
stretches for over 5 or 6 miles, likely much more.
Noah's ark?

The more we know the more odvious it is how
little we really know.

[smcgrath76]

AF - I think rates are going to stay low for quite a while, but we will
be keeping close tabs. We have all of our lending on OVR at the moment
with the option to lock the rate in at any point in time. So far it has
been working well and I like keeping the extra 1/2% in my pocket. Even
if they do go up, I don't expect a 5% jump overnight.
As far as drought goes, we fully expect it and manage for it ahead of
time as well as we can. In 2002 - the year we came back to the farm -
we had 3/8" total from May 1 to Sept 30. If I drop to 9" I am still
living in relative hog heaven. I think it is coming and YES I DO
BELIEVE IN GLOBAL WARMING. The thing that most people miss about global
warming models is that the weather overall becomes warmer, but the
important part is that it becomes more volatile/sporadic or whatever you
want to call it.

[grassfarmer]

hear, hear on the global warming thoughts Sean.

[ASRG]

Sean: I think you are right about the climate change thing. In the last decade the weather has been weird...maybe that is just my perception, but it seems we get either overly wet years or crushing dry years?
Again maybe just my perception....but it seemed when I was young you could plan better for weather, markets, finance.....now it seems everything is crazy!
From my point of view it might be better to be careful.....than to max out production with as many cows as you can put on the place? Those $1700 cows can soon become $1000 cows when it gets dry? In 2009 people were paying $150/ton (or more)for hay and feeding 250 days.....to keep those cows. It just didn't make sense....a lot of people lost their shirts that year!

The older I get the more risk adverse I get. I think BSE was a pretty good wakeup call (2002 wasn't very pretty either)! Those 1999/2000/2001, $1200 cows became $500 (or less) cows pretty fast! Who knows what goofy thing could come along and turn those $1700 cows into $500 cows again?

Personally I think rather than add a bunch more cows a person should be concentrating on making sure they have more productive cows and improved pastures?

I'd rather own 100 cows that were actually turning a decent profit than owning 200 that were losing me money.

A lot of little things go into the difference between a profit....or a loss. When prices are good you don't need to be on the ball, anyone can make money in the good times.When prices are in the tank you had better have cows that get the job done and you better have your costs under control? I would suggest the time to get your ducks in a row for the bad times, is during the good times?
I see people bringing in these little 400 lb. calves and thinking they are doing okay because they sell for $1.75/lb. That might work today.....it certainly won't work when prices drop back to $1.10! Surely a cow should be able to wean an April calf that weighs more than 400 lbs.? If not.....I would suggest she should be on the trailer as well!

[smcgrath76]

ASRG - I know there are a lot of
naysayers and I usually keep my opinion
to myself, but I have a stack of
scientific, peer reviewed papers from
published journals that is over 2.5 feet
high sitting in my basement and I have
read every one of those papers from
start to finish (some were pretty
painful). It would take a lot of
convincing and evidence to change my
mind, when 2.49999 feet of that stack
explain with good scientific reason the
phenomenon of global warming. Worst
case scenario the pundits are wrong and
I am cautious and take care of my
ecosystem to buffer disaster and be more
productive, best case scenario I am
prepared and take care of my ecosystem
to buffer disaster and be more
productive. Global warming is a big
risk factor in my mind going forward
(bigger than BSE).

[grassfarmer]

I think most of the naysayers have short attention
spans and just read the other 0.00001 of the pile.
The thing that has always struck me regardless of
whether 99% of the science is right or not is that a lot
of the remedies you would use to mitigate the effects
of global warming assuming it is happening are just
common sense things that it makes sense to move
towards anyway. As we are playing for rather big
stakes on this one isn't only prudent to err on the
side of caution?

[kato]

Global warming and climate change may be a risk going forward for cattle producers, but that risk pales in comparison to what grain growers could face. They don't have nearly as much leeway and wriggle room with a canola crop as we do with our cattle. Top that with the massive money invested to produce those crops, and wow.. scarey stuff.

[grassfarmer]

No you've got it all wrong Kato - just ask the guys
over on the commodity forum. They are all buying
bigger trucks and tractors in an attempt to speed
global warming so their crops will grow faster.

[Kathy]

How do I "plan" to deal with artificial influences on the weather being perpetrated upon us and many regions by "private corporations" experimenting with "geo-engineering"?

The last two days (November 14 and 15) for example, started out with clear skies and warmer temperatures. I had to sit and watch the planes fly back and forth spreading chemtrails of God knows what. Over time these "trails" spread out to form a haze and blocked out the heat of the sun. (I have photos). Today, we are dealing with fog - which may have actually been snow, if not for the dissemination of the fine particulate by these planes.

This website provides alot of information for those who remain open to "observable" evidence:
http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/


This link:
http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/amazing-chemwebs-fall-france-nov-7-2012/

shows "chem webs" as they call them, falling from the sky in France on November 7, 2012. We experienced this as well one day in October (I'll have to check for the actual date); but it is exactly the same appearance. I phoned friends both east and west (12 to 20 miles away on each side of us) and they saw these webs falling as well.

Some people tried to pawn this off as baby spiders travelling on webs to their new homes.... But this can be ruled out by the total coverage distance and concentration of the substance. We collected some samples and hope to get them analyzed soon.

[Happytrails]

Sooo.. AF did you get your answers!!??

Cows can quickly go from being an asset to a liability if feed gets short. However if you've got the winter feed, grass, and ambition it looks like bred heifers or cows might yield a good profit this turn. The big guys don't like calving cows and a lot of the little guys are giving them up. I think there is a serious labor shortage in the cow-calf sector which might explain weak prices for bred stock. Lately the market for pairs in the spring has been pretty good. Good Luck.

[ALLFARMER]

Your very correct Happytrails about the labour
shortage in cattle, guys willing to do the job. We
just ran the herd thru for preg checking. Very glad
my 2 wealthy/young neighbors agreed to come
help out. Not a chance of them shifting from grain
and oilseed production to raising cattle. I do
though have only a small fraction of the debt they
have.

My take
When I look at back at what I sold calves for in the
last few years.....not even 500$ for a 600lb heifer
to now 725$ for a 450lb heifer and guys still
quitting?? I thought the number of cattle
producers in the business would stop going down
and come near stabilizing. The price of bred cattle
tells me thats not happening. The trend of less
and less producers is unabated.

JSB is now kicking the tires of the XL plant do
they want to be the 4th owner to try and make a
buck with this plant?

We're in a industry that's very close to being in
serious trouble. Its going to take spectacular calf
prices for herd numbers to rebuild. Is JBS going to
financially offer this incentive in a real way?
Canada is not going to supply JBS it's cheapest
container of beef to globally market.