Selling Calves this Fall

[pickarock]

I am sure most of the cow/calf guys have been thinking of what they are doing with their calves this fall. Should be hanging on as long as we can to them or dumping them and taking our loss right away. What are the bankers saying...... went to a mtg the other nite and gov't types say the "new super nisa" will help us out.

[15444]

I am planning to sell all the steers and the poorer heifers this fall, but might just wait to see what the New Super NISA is like. My neighbour sold his calves off the cows two weeks ago, got 70 to 85 cents a pound.

[NeilS]

My neighbor is a cow-calf operator who thinks the border will open soon for young animals. His reasoning is that the feedlots south of the border depend on Canadian calves or they will be short of animals. He also underestands that the younger animals are considered low risk for BSE, paving the way for calves next after boxed beef.

[kato]

I have heard the same thing. Apparently, "according to the science" young animals and boxed beef are on par.

But then again, "science" hasn't always meant much lately.

[jmillang]

I agree that young cattle are likley to be next on the importation list but the world of politics and trade are making things interesting.

The US sends as much beef into Japan as Canada sends into the US. So the US is not very likely to jeopardize that market for the sake of a importation of CDN beef. If you read some of the material that is posted on the USDA website as to what they are proposing to the Japanese as certification of CDN free product we won't be shipping CDN calves for a while. The USDA is proposing that only product that is killed in the US is "certified" CDN free so we won't be killing CDN calves in the US for a while unless the japanese reduce their demands on what they consider BSE free.

on the good news side the US feeders have capacity they can't use as there are not as many calves out there as they have feedlots so if they really want to feed cattle they need to bring their equity up here and invest in either calves or lots. Also in Alberta we have two packing plants that could utilize thier boxed beef operations to a heavier demand and thus we could fill some pacific northwest demand via boxed beef rather than live cattle.

The only thing for sure is we don't / won't have a normal market this fall and for some period of time. We now live in a new marketplace (which may be better than the old one).

[jmillang]

Interesting comments.......it defintely is not going to be a normal fall, yes American feeders want our calves, but the Japanese requirements and the America desire to maintian their export maket to Japan may well lock our live feeder cattle and slaughter cattle out .........I have not heard if feedlots in Alberta are placing cattle on feed, but I suspect that they are positioning themselves to do so, cow calf operators are going to have to be market sensitive and be very prudent in their makreting throughout the next six months .......personally I am prepared to sell my steers if the return is there $1.00 per pound or more for 500- 500 steers(intend to market end of August), but all of my hiefers will be remaining at home ........ I have lots of feed and and am in a good cash position so I can afford to string it out, but there are plenty of guys around me that are not, so I anticipate that the market will be flooded by the middle of September to the end of October whether the money is there or not! If the steers do not sell then they too are in the yard for the winter!

[topper]

It's interesting to hear what others are planning but I think no one has enough facts to make a proper decision on fall marketing. The way I see it is if we sell our calves this fall we are for sure going to get a beating and if we keep them until spring we maybe have a fifty-fifty chance that the americans will be taking live cattle and prices will be a little better. So I think I will be keeping my calves till spring and at least getting a chance at better prices. I realize that others because of economics will have no choice but to sell this fall, they may however turn out to be the lucky ones. Who knows!!!!Just think back to the drought last year and think about all those that where forced to sell off their cows, I imagine some of them feel pretty lucky now.

[kato]

It wasn't that long ago that some producers here in Manitoba were forced to liquidate due to TB. It was a horrifying prospect at the time. Who would have thought then that it was really a blessing in disguise! The compensation level for those cattle was pretty good by today's standards.

Just goes to show that you never really know how things will turn out. Maybe this cloud will have a silver lining someday. :-0

As for selling calves, we usually sell as short keeps, so will do that again. Our problem is cashflow due to the lack of cull cow sales this fall. Some calves may have to go to fix that problem.

[topper]

Kato: Why wouldn't you take that 50,000 that the manitoba government is offering rather than give some of your calves up at below cost of production pricing. Just curious as I was thinking of taking that loan for cash flow. I know people don't want to go further in the hole but money is money and I think that it is probably a better option than emptying the bank account or selling calves cheap.

[cowman]

If the Americans open the border for really young stuff(calves) we will see a massive stampede of calves heading south. Good for the cow/calf guy but the end of the feeding business in the west. And then next year we get whatever the Americans feel like paying us! Of course our grain farmers will have to find a new home for all their feed grain. I guess those nice Americans will be glad to take it off their hands...if the price is low enough!
Make no mistake here...this is not about "mad cow"! This is an out and out takeover of our resources by a greedy nation of pirates! And we wonder why most of the world hates America?