Errol Anderson's cattle price bounce???

[ALLFARMER]

Errol is saying cattle prices should be bullish the
fundamentals are there. Then you look at the
futures charts and see 2 rally attempts flat out fail.

Then I look at NBI market reports (for what their
worth) and see this


Clyde sale numbers 5/6 weight str
Sept 11-- 2050
Sept 18--2634.    1.50/1.67
Sept 25--1932.    1.50/1.67
Oct 2--  2456.    1.45/1.55
Oct 9-- 2424.    1.45/1.65
Oct 16--2318.     1.55/1.71
Oct 24--4607   1.55/1.71
Oct 31--4890.   1.55/1.71
Nov 6--6535.    1.55/1.69
Nov 27--5816.   1.50/1.60
Feb 12--5052.   1.55/1.66.5
Mar 5--3500.  1.50/1.63

Looks like a flat market to me.

[grassfarmer]

Why worry when you don't have calves to sell? If you
still own calves you have the chance to lock in higher
prices through contracts or the price insurance
program. There is only one way cattle are going and
that is UP in my opinion. It just takes a little patience
due to the high grain price/drought situation in the
US.

[ALLFARMER]

The buns are in the oven! The kids are already
making sure they each get a calf lol. 12 year old
wants to work on this farm all summer and be
paid with calf/calves. 1.5 weeks more of log haul
then V cutting begins.

[kato]

On the plus side, the grain market predictors are calling for somewhat lower grain prices.

On the minus side, I heard a report the other day that said due to laying off meat inspectors, that it's expected some U.S. processors will be shutting down intermittently due to lack of inspection services.

I think the safest prediction is that things won't be predictable.

[ALLFARMER]

At least cattle prices are stable. I heard a
prediction baby boomers sitting on their money is
going to mean low interest rates for the next ten
years. I would look forward to that!

[ALLFARMER]

Cows are starting to do well on alfalfa pellets and
straw. Been 3 days now and they seem to be
settling in to eating straw with a touch of hay. 7lbs
each cow 30 lb's/pail 29 pails/day, very doable.
Just waiting on the weather to warm up some!

[ASRG]

Allfarmer: It would be very interesting for you to keep us all informed how the pellets/straw thing works out? Perhaps a report on how you think it worked out after calving?

[ALLFARMER]

I don't know ASRG I usually try and keep things
pretty close to the vest. Sark.

1.5 weeks of log haul left and now they want to
start enforcing the speed limit on the bush road
.....o that's funny. Like who would care if they get
a day off at this point?

[ASRG]

I am intrigued by the straw/pellet thing. There is a guy a few miles from me who feeds his cows nothing but straw/pellets. His cows always look to be in good shape.
He has a tank on the side of the processor that lays the pellets on top of the swath.
He told me it costs less than bought hay hauled in. He bales straw close to his place.

[ALLFARMER]

Pellets figured out to cost$ 0.88 per cow per day.
Seems like cows eating about 1 an 3/4 bales per
day of straw $15 x 1.75 is $26.25 / 110 is $0.34
so $1.12 :day

Hay feeding was close to 3 bales a day recently
so 1.63/day

So hay would need to be less than $41/bale to bet
pellets.