Errol Anderson's cattle price bounce???

[ALLFARMER]

Errol is saying cattle prices should be bullish the
fundamentals are there. Then you look at the
futures charts and see 2 rally attempts flat out fail.

Then I look at NBI market reports (for what their
worth) and see this


Clyde sale numbers 5/6 weight str
Sept 11-- 2050
Sept 18--2634.    1.50/1.67
Sept 25--1932.    1.50/1.67
Oct 2--  2456.    1.45/1.55
Oct 9-- 2424.    1.45/1.65
Oct 16--2318.     1.55/1.71
Oct 24--4607   1.55/1.71
Oct 31--4890.   1.55/1.71
Nov 6--6535.    1.55/1.69
Nov 27--5816.   1.50/1.60
Feb 12--5052.   1.55/1.66.5
Mar 5--3500.  1.50/1.63

Looks like a flat market to me.

[grassfarmer]

Why worry when you don't have calves to sell? If you
still own calves you have the chance to lock in higher
prices through contracts or the price insurance
program. There is only one way cattle are going and
that is UP in my opinion. It just takes a little patience
due to the high grain price/drought situation in the
US.

[ALLFARMER]

The buns are in the oven! The kids are already
making sure they each get a calf lol. 12 year old
wants to work on this farm all summer and be
paid with calf/calves. 1.5 weeks more of log haul
then V cutting begins.

[kato]

On the plus side, the grain market predictors are calling for somewhat lower grain prices.

On the minus side, I heard a report the other day that said due to laying off meat inspectors, that it's expected some U.S. processors will be shutting down intermittently due to lack of inspection services.

I think the safest prediction is that things won't be predictable.

[ALLFARMER]

At least cattle prices are stable. I heard a
prediction baby boomers sitting on their money is
going to mean low interest rates for the next ten
years. I would look forward to that!

[ALLFARMER]

Cows are starting to do well on alfalfa pellets and
straw. Been 3 days now and they seem to be
settling in to eating straw with a touch of hay. 7lbs
each cow 30 lb's/pail 29 pails/day, very doable.
Just waiting on the weather to warm up some!

[ASRG]

Allfarmer: It would be very interesting for you to keep us all informed how the pellets/straw thing works out? Perhaps a report on how you think it worked out after calving?

[ALLFARMER]

I don't know ASRG I usually try and keep things
pretty close to the vest. Sark.

1.5 weeks of log haul left and now they want to
start enforcing the speed limit on the bush road
.....o that's funny. Like who would care if they get
a day off at this point?

[ASRG]

I am intrigued by the straw/pellet thing. There is a guy a few miles from me who feeds his cows nothing but straw/pellets. His cows always look to be in good shape.
He has a tank on the side of the processor that lays the pellets on top of the swath.
He told me it costs less than bought hay hauled in. He bales straw close to his place.

[ALLFARMER]

Pellets figured out to cost$ 0.88 per cow per day.
Seems like cows eating about 1 an 3/4 bales per
day of straw $15 x 1.75 is $26.25 / 110 is $0.34
so $1.12 :day

Hay feeding was close to 3 bales a day recently
so 1.63/day

So hay would need to be less than $41/bale to bet
pellets.

[grassfarmer]

Allfarmer, do you know the analysis of the alfalfa
pellets or the straw? My guess would be that you are
going to be short of energy for late gestation/post
calving cows. Depending on the straw you could be
anywhere from 42-52 TDN, alfalfa depending if it is
sun cured or dehydrated will be in the 60-66TDN
range. Feeding 2:1 straw to alfalfa pellets would give
you a total ration TDN of 48-56 where you need to be
closer to 60 TDN.

[ALLFARMER]

Dehy alfalfa pellets 3.3 kg tdn for each kg of
protein. Made from fresh cut alfalfa.

The Legal Alfalfa plant has some ration emails
they send out. 1-877-253-2832

I am for certain no expert on ration building. I
should check with AB Ag info centre.


Basic Rations:
• 1500 lb cow
•- 8-9 lbs/head/day with free choice straw •
- 6-7 lbs/head/day with free choice hay •

1200 lb cow
- 7-8 lbs/head/day with free choice straw
- 5-6 lbs/head/day with free choice hay

[grassfarmer]

Something like this for a 1200lb cow at or after
calving:
27 lb DM intake × .59 TDN required = 16 lb/day TDN
required

23 lb straw × .50 TDN = 11.5 lb/day TDN from straw.

7lb alfalfa pellets × 0.649 TDN = 4.54 lb TDN from
alfalfa

11.5 lb/day TDN from straw 4.54 lb/day TDN from
alfalfa pellets = 16.04 lb/day TDN

A cow will struggle to eat that much straw in a day
though. I guess it depends how much hay you are still
feeding and how good the analysis is but I would
guess you are still short on energy.

[ASRG]

If you are paying between 10-11 cents a pound for alfalpha pellets at 8 lbs/day, how would barley compare? It would certainly up your energy and at 13% protein and straw at 4% protein, it would satisfy the protein requirements?
The Alberta Beef Herd Management Binder has a straw/barley ration for an 1100 lb pregnant beef cow as follows:
16.5 lbs straw
3.3 lbs barley
1.32 lbs 32% supp

From my own experience about 20 lbs good 2 row straw and 9-10 lbs whole barley works on a 1400 lb cow (might get a little fat).Rolled barley would increase efficiency about 20% in a mature beef cow.
Of course barley is pretty expensive right now, but barley is rated at 1.7 Mcal.lb while alfalpha is 1.18 Mcal/lb.

[ALLFARMER]

No sure about the barley ASRG and I don't have a
roller mill yet so...

Their are about 4 or 5 guys up here that I know of
feeding alfalfa pellets. One guy was warning me
the cows would get fat feeding much more than 8
lbs.

Grassfarmer. I have been shredding one hay
bale ontop of the straw every other day so not
much. I am glad we have the bunk fence for
feeding because cows get a pretty even
opportunity to get at the pellets. Plus their not
walking & crapping on the pellets.