Seller's remorse?

[15444]

I am actually surprised to see that more of the older producers (over 65) haven't left in bigger droves, based on current prices.

All I can figure is that they are milking the current rise for all it is worth, meaning that when the fall eventually comes, the rush to the exits will be fast and furious.

[perfecho]

The reason older producers haven't left is the point of this discussion; the next calf will make more than the cow if you exited. Many, I would think are hoping/banking that eventually the "factory" will be worth more, and then it is time to exit.
Although we had cows earlier, I entered the "dream" and bought purebred cows in 1999, at $1800 a cow. Just before that a neighbor had sold his herd of commercial cows, farm auction, at $1600. My thoughts were that I only paid a premium of $200, if the PB part wasn't my game, and was comfortable with the price.
Today, although we do get paid well for the purebreds, the commercial end has to be healthy to make the whole industry viable. And at $1000 to $1200/cow...and a good cow...it is not, and I believe that is why some haven't exited.

[dluther]

This is good reading, as for me 68yrs it is I'm to old to work at pumping gas. My son and I work together [don't always agree] but that makes it interesting. I worked with my dad and as I got older it was surprizing what he new. I could have sold in 2001 for big money but my dad did not sell because I wanted to farm so I could not sell on my son. We did mix farming until CONEXUS CREDIT UNION DECIDED THEY COULD DO BETTER in 2009. He has got a start in purebreds and I agree PERF we hope the commercial side keeps strong. Getting back to why am i'm still in the cattle business is I am fortunate I have good health and enjoy it most of the time [not cold weather but it always warms up].We still have our calves[going Monday]Prices look good and greed is a bad thing. I hope to stay around for a few more years so I can get back to where I was before B.S.E. , health is good don't enjoy traveling so I might as well work. HOPE THE MARKET STAYS FOR A FEW YEARS and DREAM BIG. Dave

[burnt]

Kato, this thread is simply epic.

I don't think I have ever read a thread that does more to explain why we do what we do and why the people of this land have a steady supply of very affordable food.

It shows that we are either too committed, too old, too deep in debt or in my case, just too dumb to quit! LOL!

In any case, we know that the good times are just around the corner.

Right?

Right?

[kato]

We dropped in at the local auction mart yesterday and liked what we saw. If anything, the calves were a bit higher than before the Christmas break. A 91 cent dollar doesn't hurt, that's for sure. I sure hope good times are returning. I think the guys who bought those expensive calves yesterday are hoping as well.

But, being someone who's seen it all go off the rails before, I'll let you know if the good times have returned when I deposit a big cheque for a change. It's been a long long time coming, and I'll believe it when I see it.

Hope for the best, and prepare for the worst. Do that and you can muddle through just about anything. LOL

[grassfarmer]

I took in the bred cow section of the sale in Innisfail
today out of interest. I thought the trade was decent
for the cows on offer compared to what I've heard of
late. A dispersal of big Simmi/Angus types were
mostly in the $1300s. One pen weighed 1790lbs after
an overnight stand so they could likely rack up a feed
bill!
Nice black baldie 2-3rd calvers 1330lbs brought
$1290, the slightly older cows in that deal were over
1500lbs and brought $1170.
Some nice young red Angus coming 2nd calvers in
the 1100lb range brought $1150-$1170. 5-6 year
old reds brought around $1200 at $1350lbs.
Most of these were March calvers and they were
generally in really good shape considering the winter
we have had around here. The older end of the
dispersal cows weren't preg checked, just pounded
out.

[Horse]

Went to the sale at westlock today with the neibor he sold alves well at least 73 head gate run str / hfrs averaged $1101 clear he did his own trucking.
Didnt stay to see the cows sell but an wondering if mabey a few more buyers enter the market place with these strong prices.
some 435 strs $217/#
660 strs $168/170/#
lots of 500# real close to $2/
Asked schmit what bly was $2.70 at least it keeps the bins anchored.

[grassfarmer]

I think that is the case Horse - the feeders taking
quite a jump since Christmas seems to be triggering
more enthusiasm.
Looked at the AB cattle price insurance program
today $160 for Sept 1 (900lb) was available for
$15.84. That's relatively cheap downside protection in
my book. A month ago it would have cost $25 to buy
$158 insurance for Sept 1.
A 900lb steer at $160 in September is $1440 and I
know a calf doesn't have to be very big just now to
make 900lbs by September. Looks like there could be
money in grassing cattle even if the 5 weights are
bringing $2/lb just now.