Beef market are criminal

[furrowtickler]

Restaurants have priced beef to unaffordable levels for 90% of us
$40 for a steak supper - *** me , let alone they want 20% tip
Sooner or later it was going to happen
No one can afford to eat out at all , Fukin crazy

[smcgrath76]

Interesting thread about beef demand. I think anything we can do to encourage demand is good for our business, even if it means we can't afford to eat a steak dinner out. Beef is a luxury item for most of the world, and needs to stay somewhat in that space otherwise, the pork and chicken model of production will take over completely. Without a premium in the marketplace, we have to simply compete on volume and margin. Not really a sustainable practice in my mind. If demand rises, then so does price (to a cyclical point), meaning we might be able to afford that dinner for our own.
I just read an article about selling calves in the fall
[URL][http://cattlenetwork.com/advice-and-tips/cowcalf/can-you-afford-sell-your-calves-fall][/URL]
and it is interesting to see the perspective. I understand Kris' point, but am not sure why you would keep calves longer when the feeder sector is losing record amounts. Sometimes the first profit is the best (and maybe only profit).

[WiltonRanch]

Interesting thread about beef demand. I think anything we can do to encourage demand is good for our business, even if it means we can't afford to eat a steak dinner out. Beef is a luxury item for most of the world, and needs to stay somewhat in that space otherwise, the pork and chicken model of production will take over completely. Without a premium in the marketplace, we have to simply compete on volume and margin. Not really a sustainable practice in my mind. If demand rises, then so does price (to a cyclical point), meaning we might be able to afford that dinner for our own.
I just read an article about selling calves in the fall
[URL][http://cattlenetwork.com/advice-and-tips/cowcalf/can-you-afford-sell-your-calves-fall][/URL]
and it is interesting to see the perspective. I understand Kris' point, but am not sure why you would keep calves longer when the feeder sector is losing record amounts. Sometimes the first profit is the best (and maybe only profit).

Seen this rodeo before. Lost money backgrounding my calves in this scenario. Best to keep lots of breeder heifers and move the rest culls included. When all I can insure for is $134 850 weights at a $5.40 premium there is no money if the trend holds. Lick your wounds now and regroup for next season. When the cycle starts to turn is when feeding will pay a couple years.

[smcgrath76]

Seen this rodeo before. Lost money backgrounding my calves in this scenario. Best to keep lots of breeder heifers and move the rest culls included. When all I can insure for is $134 850 weights at a $5.40 premium there is no money if the trend holds. Lick your wounds now and regroup for next season. When the cycle starts to turn is when feeding will pay a couple years.

I agree with that sentiment. We have made very good money backgrounding in the past, but not on a down cycle. The article I was referring to was saying that cattle are at heavier endpoints than ever but average WW that is sold off the cow has not changed much. This is interesting, but I think they forgot to ask how much margin is being made on the last pounds put on... Better to sell lighter with a margin than heavier with a loss as nearly as I can figure. One advantage of low costs is that you can cash flow with fewer calves, thus freeing up expansion possibilities through retained heifers. We have not historically bought bred heifers as they are often overpriced and rarely as well suited for our operation as what I can produce at home. This year is our second of using sexed semen and I am pretty excited about how it is working and what it does to free up resources to expand while creating more calves for sale as well. I think the only surprising thing about this cycle for me is the speed it has moved (thought I had at least another 6 months midslope) and possibly the volatility that it has shown. I also agree with your assessment of the insurance program. We insured our calves this year (thanks US election for creating extra uncertainty) on a program that is terrible for those of us that calve later, but the volatility is hard to figure.

[WiltonRanch]

I agree with that sentiment. We have made very good money backgrounding in the past, but not on a down cycle. The article I was referring to was saying that cattle are at heavier endpoints than ever but average WW that is sold off the cow has not changed much. This is interesting, but I think they forgot to ask how much margin is being made on the last pounds put on... Better to sell lighter with a margin than heavier with a loss as nearly as I can figure. One advantage of low costs is that you can cash flow with fewer calves, thus freeing up expansion possibilities through retained heifers. We have not historically bought bred heifers as they are often overpriced and rarely as well suited for our operation as what I can produce at home. This year is our second of using sexed semen and I am pretty excited about how it is working and what it does to free up resources to expand while creating more calves for sale as well. I think the only surprising thing about this cycle for me is the speed it has moved (thought I had at least another 6 months midslope) and possibly the volatility that it has shown. I also agree with your assessment of the insurance program. We insured our calves this year (thanks US election for creating extra uncertainty) on a program that is terrible for those of us that calve later, but the volatility is hard to figure.

If the insurance was too good it wouldn't last. Crappt thing is there is no incentive or security to feed your calves. School of hard knocks; failing to listen and act on market signals will spank you. So much uncertainty with everything right now and where it goes when the run comes.

[perfecho]

Have extra barley that is not worth a whole lot either...so maybe....???