Bred hfrs

[Retired]

Any quotes on breds, in westlock VJV on thu good bred hfrs $17/1750 didnt see them but sounds like someone is going to take a bath

[Redone]

Anybody that bought inventory in the past 12 months is taking a bath. Alberta beef report says any feedlot selling fats in the cash market has suffered 12 months of losses. It's gonna be a year to consider retaining ownership

[grassfarmer]

Couldn't really consider something born in the spring of last year a poor trade at over $1700. Should be able to make good money at that unless your costs are out of hand. Sure, cattle were worth more earlier in the bell curve of price decline but we reaped the benefit of the bell curve on the way up too.

[15444]

Fella who farms locally and is in deep with FCC (I mean, they own EVERYTHING of 'his'), was told by them that $1500 is their cap on financing if buying breds. I would hope that the premium bred heifers would fetch $2k, but that might be a stretch.

[smcgrath76]

I think a lot depends on your perspective. If you are selling those heifers that is still a fairly historically high price. if you are buying those heifers, you had better be aware that we are on the downside of the cycle. We have been expanding from within, using sexed semen to accelerate the process, but you have to be cautious of cash flow. The comment about retained ownership is valid this year, but I think based on the trend in the futures, it would pay to hedge as any gains in weight have the potential to be offset by price declines, particularly in Canada. If oil strengthens, the CDN $ will go up and things could get scary pretty fast. The flip side is that feed is pretty inexpensive this year.

Costs will probably determine profit more than price...

[grassfarmer]

Costs will probably determine profit more than price...

Isn't that usually the case?

[smcgrath76]

Isn't that usually the case?

Touche. I don't think I would budget on an increasing price at this point though. that is one thing we are wondering this fall, whether the feeder price will decline faster than the calves gain weight and if we should be marketing them and then flipping into some cheaper cattle.

[grassfarmer]

I just find it a very difficult situation to predict at the moment - even some dedicated buy-sell marketers I know are finding it tough to identify replacement stock. Just what do you buy at the moment?

[WiltonRanch]

I'd be damn cautious about backgrounding anything this winter. I've done before on a down cycle and donated my feed. Last few years we've been selling the bigger steers in the fall and keeping dinks and heifers till feb-march. I might let all steers go this fall. Even heifers that won't make breeders should maybe go too. I am just unsure about putting a bunch into something that there is a good chance to lose on. Besides my helpers are 80 ish and they should really just take it easy in the winter. Many with the same attitude these days. Last turn guys who kept to February-mar didn't make squat ourselves included.

I really can't see there being any $4000 bred heifers at Vermillion this fall. If yearling heifers are bringing $1500 now and things slide further those breds will be cheaper. If you want to be counter cyclical this'll be the year to keep a few more heifers and probably more next year if the cycle holds.

[grassfarmer]

Anyone want to guess the % of cow calf outfits that change their marketing time in response to market prices? I'm not talking selling 3 weeks late or a week early but how many outfits are prepared to switch from selling fresh calves to backgrounding through to spring or right through till the next fall? I'd be curious to know that number but suspect it would be very low.

As for $4000 heifers that was crazy, said so at the time.