What to do?

[kato]

Just got a call from the price insurance people. Apparently until 8 pm tonight we are in a claim position. What a nice guy to call us! I'm impressed. Almost 10 cents a pound, but the contract doesn't expire until Oct 3. Decision time...

Any opinions on the market going forward? Apparently futures are up the limit two days running and the dollar went down. Have we seen bottom? Mmmmm...... What to do.

[15444]

I think we are far from bottom. Good 5-weight steers in the US are hovering around the $600 mark. The quicker they drop to $400, the quicker we can cull out the 'herd' and start climbing again.

[kato]

So far we've decided to sit tight and see what the next couple of weeks brings.

[grassfarmer]

I think we are far from bottom. Good 5-weight steers in the US are hovering around the $600 mark. The quicker they drop to $400, the quicker we can cull out the 'herd' and start climbing again.

They haven't been that low since 1998- why should they, or why would you want them to, drop that far?

[kato]

If that's us funds it works out in the neighbourhood of 830 cdn. Weve seen worse. Still don't have to ask for it though.

There seems to be rumblings about the bottom being found, so maybe that will turn out to be true. I believe the cycle in the U.S. is ahead of us, so theoretically their turnaround should be sooner rather than later. The trick is to figure out when.

[DaneG]

Mine matured yesterday with almost 23 cent pay out, last weeks settlement was delayed until yesterday 15 cents higher than yesterday.Claim or not good question with the swings in the futures one week can make quite a difference, any payout is better than none.

[15444]

They haven't been that low since 1998- why should they, or why would you want them to, drop that far?

To thin out the herd of people wanting to play with cows while subsidizing them with off-farm income.

Like I told a cattle guy today, I would love to see them at $500 CDN tomorrow and stay that way for one year. This industry would change in a heartbeat and get some of the playboys out. I'm all for a reckoning, not sunshine and rainbows.

[kato]

Whatever the cattle numbers are in Canada doesn't make much of a difference in the big picture. It's the American herd size with the exchange rate that sets our prices. I agree that the crazy highs of a year ago were out of line, but still wouldn't ever wish a market collapse on anyone. Been there done that and got the t-shirt.

[smcgrath76]

To thin out the herd of people wanting to play with cows while subsidizing them with off-farm income.

Like I told a cattle guy today, I would love to see them at $500 CDN tomorrow and stay that way for one year. This industry would change in a heartbeat and get some of the playboys out. I'm all for a reckoning, not sunshine and rainbows.

I am not sure that would help, other than to drive serious players out. If you don't know your costs, can claim tax deductions and use farm fuel to offset your other income, why would you care if you lost $1000 per head. Hobbies generally cost money and you could spend the same amount of money gambling or hunting or golfing without the tax benefits. I think $500 calves will just lead to a lot more acres covered with canola.

[WiltonRanch]

I am not sure that would help, other than to drive serious players out. If you don't know your costs, can claim tax deductions and use farm fuel to offset your other income, why would you care if you lost $1000 per head. Hobbies generally cost money and you could spend the same amount of money gambling or hunting or golfing without the tax benefits. I think $500 calves will just lead to a lot more acres covered with canola.

Very true. The last blood bath in cattle markets saw a lot of hay and pasture get sprayed out and turned into canola fields. We need enough cows out there to justify the packers and feedlots who buy our cows. If it contracts too much buyers leave and we are reduced to marketing sides of beef ourselves. Fine enough for a guy with a few head intrepid enough for that endeavour but for the bulk of us lazy folks running 200+ head it's not in the cards. There will always be hobby herds and wannabe cowboys. at least they are there at the ground level of agriculture involved. I have more problem with non resident land owners. That hurts us more than anything.

[grassfarmer]

It maybe looks different in your part of Ontario but in Alberta the BSE decade proved that the guys for whom it isn't their only source of income would hang on to their cows no matter how low prices went. Converted a lot of full time producers into part time producers too.

[grassfarmer]

I always enjoy the commentary from Westlock Auction on market trends. Not pulling any punches here (commentary posted below price tables)

[URL="http://www.vjvauction.com/westlock/market-report/cattle"]http://http://www.vjvauction.com/westlock/market-report/cattle[/URL]

[WiltonRanch]

I always enjoy the commentary from Westlock Auction on market trends. Not pulling any punches here (commentary posted below price tables)

[URL="http://www.vjvauction.com/westlock/market-report/cattle"]http://http://www.vjvauction.com/westlock/market-report/cattle[/URL]

Ha ha. That about sums it up.

[15444]

It maybe looks different in your part of Ontario but in Alberta the BSE decade proved that the guys for whom it isn't their only source of income would hang on to their cows no matter how low prices went. Converted a lot of full time producers into part time producers too.

Things were looking good for oil and gas back then, today would be a different story. In Southern Ontario, the issue would be land price in correlation to the product it is producing.

[perfecho]

As I said to a city friend the other day...prices are half of what they were a couple of years ago, but twice of 8 years ago....
Are we half lucky?
The whole commodity thing is taking a kicking, and we are part of it. This is where one would like more "local" customers..
.prices haven't caught on in grocery stores, kinda like gas stations.....