How about bulls?

[cowman]

Just wondering how many people are going to need a bull or two next spring? Or will you keep what you got for another year? What kind of money do you expect to pay for a yearling/two year old? I know a guy who had a couple of bulls waiting to go to China when the BSE crisis hit. They were bought but not paid for! Needless to say the Chinese backed out of the deal and he ended up getting 18 cents for them at XL! The original deal was $3500/bull and they were the pick of the litter! I think he ended up with about $250/each.
What's a 1300 lb. yearling going to be worth in the spring? How about an 1800 lb. two year old?

[15444]

I know I was glad when I sealed the deal on the bull I had for sale a few days before 5/20. I can't see bulls as being a lucrative business anymore. I sure wouldn't spend anymore then $1000 on the best bull out there now and anybody looking for more can keep him!

[Bruce14]

Just came in for coffee and thought I would check in. This one really blows me away but let's think this through.

Top quality calves are still selling pretty darn good. Fall calves and big early Jan. calves are still bringing about nine hundred-one thousand bucks.

You expect to buy a bull that influences half your herd (over half if you keep some daughters) for roughly the price of one good calf.

You might find some at that price but it will be a one time thing and from a breeder that is so desperate that I would be worried about the guarantee. (He probably won't be around for another year to sell you another bull anyways.) Why should anyone in their right mind keep a calf thru winter, semen test, guarantee and deliver him for $1000.00.

You may also be surprised how many purebred breeders have already cut a lot of their bulls and aren't taking the chance. Alot of the cow fresheners won't be at the sales next spring.

If you expect to get a quality bull bought for $1000 maybe you ought to take an A.I. course this winter so your cows aren't disappointed. Remember empty cows aren't worth a whole lot either.

[kato]

We just went out this spring and bought four of them. They will be around for quite some time, especially after the bath we are going to take on the two big guys we have to sell this fall.

I wouldn't be surprised if the two year old bull market is going to really downsize. Breeders aren't going to hang on to them past yearling size, or the risk of money lost is going to be too high. If I was selling bulls, I would say.."If you're not sold as a yearling, you're outta here"

[Muttley]

Quality genetics still pay no matter what the price. Most producers will still need to have quality calves to get the good money. Poor bulls and cheap bulls will result in poor calves which will result in poorer prices.

If your wanting to keep heifers you will as well not want to have a poor sire. A good bull will pay for itself over time not one year.

[grassfarmer]

I think Cowman is raising a valid point and something that pedigree breeders should be preparing for.
To expect new bulls to cost less is not a matter of being cheap or working with poorer genetics - it's market forces reacting to lower cull values. If a rancher was previously buying a decent bull for $3000 and had a $1100cheque in his pocket from selling a cull bull (1800lbs@61c/lb) his replacement cost was $1900. When his cull is only worth $180 (1800lbs@10c/lb) he will be looking to spend around $2000 on a replacement. That is the kind of price drop I would expect to see next Spring when the bull sales arrive. Bull sellers will not be able to hold out for last years prices because there will be less buyers around and they will have less money to spend.
Bruce14: I was always told the cow was responsible for 60% of the genetics - 50% through the bloodlines and 10% for rearing the calf. Fair enough you can influence the herd a lot by the purchase of a good individual bull but real cowherds that last are built on cow families.

[Bruce14]

I agree with you grassfarmer, good cowherds are built on strong cow families.

That's why if you keep your own replacements you buy a bull out of a good cow!

Actually genetics are gentics, cow and bull each contribute 50%. Yes the cow does end up contributing more to the outcome as she also provides the nutrition for a few months.

Although there are some cows that are still basically companions. A shot of colostrum at birth and then a bit of shade and comfort thru the summer.

Yep you hit the nail on the head. Cow families are very important and we also only make sure our bulls out top end females.

[15444]

Grassfarmer hit the jackpot!
Cull value is exactly what will destroy the majority of the bull market. Even as we speak, top quality Hereford bull calves in registered sales are going for $800-1000, when these exact same calves should have fetched $2000-2500 based on last years prices. My good friend sold his 5 year old bull last spring for almost $1800. He could go and buy a decent yearling for that price or a little more. How would you suppose he could do such a feat when bulls are now basically worthless? It's just not in the cards to buy a hefty priced bull, regardless of how many genes he contributes. I predict alot of bull swapping between commercial breeders and the rapid spread of communicable cattle diseases as long as the border is closed.

[cowman]

I suspect a lot of bulls that would normally be going to the mart this fall will be staying home this winter. Ist he's not worth anything and secondly there's no money to buy a new one. So it will be run him one more year!
The purebred breeder is going to take his lumps right along with the commercial guy. Maybe more so as I imagine the packer buyers will be pretty tough on those yearling bulls come spring?
The commercial guy can cut expenses if he has to and lets face it $2000 to $3000 for a yearling is a lot of money when that 4 or 5 year old bull is worth $300! Especially when he can still do the job of 2 yearlings! The purebred guy still has to feed a whole lot better and keep up the advertizing, extra work etc. if he hopes to sell his product. I suspect it could be fairly ugly to be in the bull business?

[Bruce14]

"Even as we speak, top quality Hereford bull calves in registered sales are going for $800-1000"

15444 I wasn't aware there had been many purebred sales yet this fall in any breed. Whose sales were they and where were they held?

The purebred bull market is going to be tough but I would like to see you print the FACTS.

[kato]

I think that the bulls that are offered for sale next spring are going to probably be the best quality we've seen in years. The incentive to leave them all intact, and only ship the ones that don't sell is definitely reduced.

My off farm job is at a vet clinic, and believe me, when prices are good, there are a lot of bulls being tested for sale that really should be in a feedlot. They may test well for breeding, but that's about all they have going for them.

[15444]

Bruce14:

http://www.buyagro.com/sales03/newcentury03.htm

The bulls calves at this sale averaged $842.00.

[Bruce14]

15444:

Thanks for the update.

While I checked the site you mentioned, I noticed this other one. Have a look.


http://www.buyagro.com/sales03/elm03.htm

Twice as many Hereford bull calves sold at this sale as the one you have highlighted. 4.41 to average $4246.00 to be exact. Add that to the Party of Friends sale results (2 @$1500 each) and the 2 you mention @ 842.00. I come up with average price of $2783.46 on the 8.41 bull calves. I don't think that's all bad for spring baby calves.

Hardly enough information or animals to base one's spring buying decisions on.

I agree that it will be tough for purebred breeders and I'm not trying to enter into debate, rather show there is a bit of a break in the clouds once in a while if you choose to look at the entire picture.

If we spend as much time finding the positive examples as we do the negative it may be easier to deal with the BSE situation.

[cowman]

I would say that is awfully good money for a spring calf! Especially a Hereford calf! Herefords are pretty well extinct around central Alberta! It's all Angus right now red or black! If someone had told me, ten years ago, that the majority of our cattle would be Angus I would have never believed them. How the world does change?
I've used some pretty good angus bulls through A.I.(always chosen for light birthrates/for heifers) and while a lot of the resulting calves made excellent cows they never grew like a Charlais or Simmental! And at the end of the day we do sell pounds! I still believe that big buckskin calf puts the most money in your pocket! It's like Jack Daines(Innisfail Auction Mart) says " I don't know if Charlais are better cattle I just know that they bring the most money when I sell them!"

[Muttley]

I'm a Angus breeder but am sure thinking about a Hereford bull to put on the cows next spring. Can't beat those white faces on blacks.

I do agree that bull prices will be down but I myself have a limit to how low I will sell. I will cut bulls this fall and sell before keeping so many I am forced to sell intact next spring for slaughter.