Explosive Cattle Board! . . . .

[errolanderson]

Poisoned or tainted beef from Brazil had nothing to do with it?

good point bucket . . . China quickly allowed Brazilian beef back in their country, but certainly China has a motive in keeping the Brazilian commodity pipeline open.

[Cattleman]

The fact steer carcass weights in the US are 30 lbs below last year, and the US has been a next Exporter the last couple months, has resulted in Domestic beef supplies about flat year over year. Combine this with the fact that the number of cattle on feed 120 days + is way below a year ago has been very bullish in terms of market developments. Big driver has also been the drop in retail beef prices, and big jump in beef features has resulted in beef being pulled through the supply chain and getting the industry very current. Packers have sold ahead a lot of beef with orders to fill. The US only exports a little over 10% of its beef, I really don't think the China was a big deal. As pointed out, it was the repeat of an old announcement. I see most of the market shift as domestically driven, with help from the trade balance.

Market fundamentals are much healthier, and prices have jumped over 30%. Funny you talk of the markets being rigged Grassfarmer, after market fundamentals have changed dramatically and prices are up 30%! Why would packers let the feedlots make $600/head if markets are rigged?

Sorry, end of rant.

[grassfarmer]

Better that they give back $600 on a few than $600 on them all, so the market fixing has still worked for the packer. When prices topped out in 14/15 predictions were that they would remain high until 2020. Then mysteriously last summer/early fall the talk changed - all of the sudden US numbers had grown at a rate that wasn't possible given the speed cattle multiply at. On top of that weights had increased and demand slumped. We were warned that prices fall 16 would be bad but fall 17 would be worse. I called BS on it then and I'm calling BS on it now. There was futures manipulation and likely inventory misreporting used in a blatant attempt to collapse the live cattle market when the fundamentals didn't point to such a bleak outlook. Now the pretence has ended - inventory is still low in N. America as it was bound to be and the demand for beef is still there.
Don't get me wrong I'm not upset at the prices being back closer to where they should be - I'm upset that so many cattle producers were cheated out of income last fall. Luckily I had faith in my reading of the situation and sold nothing in the last quarter and after a long winter am selling now.

[Blaithin]

Seems every other month America is having some issue killing hundreds or thousands of cattle.

The fires in Kansas and now the blizzard in Colorado. Beats me how they come up with the numbers that their herd is stable and growing.

Seen a prediction about a drought this year in July and August for AB and SK. Might be a time to take advantage of prices for grass cattle and slim down a bit in case grass becomes short. I just hate sending calves to feedlots :/

[westernvicki]

Thank you for the summary Cattleman.

Perhaps the deal with China is not a game changer today, however the growing from China, even if painstakingly slow, will change demand in the world. Even a small % is big.

Arnold has his match in Trump.

[WiltonRanch]

One thing you have to remember guys are putting more weight on calves. A hundred plus lbs more on the average makes a big difference in supply. Though I do agree with Grass about the bs we were fed about burdensome supply. Packer manipulation? Don't know. Retail squeezing the chain? Always.

[errolanderson]

U.S. cash cattle traded between $145 to $147/cwt yesterday afternoon. Astonishing! . . .

This does not feel like a 'Made in North America' rally. China beef buying demand from the U.S.?
Consumer will not tolerate these beef prices . . . . which is likely bullish for cash hogs.

Open interest suddenly dropped yesterday . . . a warning? Good grief, volatility extreme.

[burnt]

Limit moves 6 sessions in the last 7? Wow.

[sumdumguy]

A word starting with "S" and ending with "T" comes to mind. Can anyone guess the word?

[farming101]

Sweet?

[burnt]

In this context?

Maybe "sweat".

or maybe "summit", as in peak?



Or "shaft"?



Oh, try this one - "sellout"?


Hopefully not "subtract"??



C'mon, the suspense is killing me.

[Cattleman]

I am not saying this rally is going to continue. The extra weight on carcasses was a big driver down last fall, now with significant year over year decrease in weights it is a big markets benefit. Yes, world markets are critical and I do agree China will/is having a big impact. Just look at all the Aussie beef getting diverted there, which does help NA too. But China won't impact domestic prices massively in 5 months in my mind.

The market is the market, it just seems, if the market goes screaming up, all is well, but if they crash they are rigged against producers. Yes, we can't always explain the market, and some fluctuations are suspect, but they tend to average out. Maybe producers didn't get full price for their calves last fall, but the calves they sold for over $3/lb, was probably too high, as feedlots lost hundreds of dollars on them. Take the average price of calves over the last 2 years, and feedlot profit and losses over the last 2 years it has averaged out pretty good. Prices are still very strong in my books. I rather focus on my business understanding the market environment I operate in, rather than point fingers at everyone else when things don't go my way.

[sumdumguy]

I was kinda thinking "short" about Aug 15, but I wouldn't listen to a dumb guy when we've got wiseguys in the crowd. 🎯

[errolanderson]

I am not saying this rally is going to continue. The extra weight on carcasses was a big driver down last fall, now with significant year over year decrease in weights it is a big markets benefit. Yes, world markets are critical and I do agree China will/is having a big impact. Just look at all the Aussie beef getting diverted there, which does help NA too. But China won't impact domestic prices massively in 5 months in my mind.

The market is the market, it just seems, if the market goes screaming up, all is well, but if they crash they are rigged against producers. Yes, we can't always explain the market, and some fluctuations are suspect, but they tend to average out. Maybe producers didn't get full price for their calves last fall, but the calves they sold for over $3/lb, was probably too high, as feedlots lost hundreds of dollars on them. Take the average price of calves over the last 2 years, and feedlot profit and losses over the last 2 years it has averaged out pretty good. Prices are still very strong in my books. I rather focus on my business understanding the market environment I operate in, rather than point fingers at everyone else when things don't go my way.

well said . . . .

[blackjack]

well somebody didn't like where the board was at. Does anybody else think our livestock insurance is a joke.