Fifteen years ago today.....

[smcgrath76]

I remember the gut wrenching uncertainty. We were lucky. Sold 2002 calves in early May that year. Had 3/8" of rain in 2002 which seemed like a curse, but it meant we had no old/poor/questionable/open cows left in 2003. We never sold a cow for almost 3 years after BSE. Bought a few cows in November of 2003. Sold the last one 2 years ago. We never played the set aside program, and we marketed based on the newscast of the week for almost 2 years. (Good news around sale time, book the calves in. If it was still good news, deliver and sell. If the news changed, keep em home).

[15444]

Had sold 1/4 of cowherd in 2002 for good money, sold yearlings and cull cows for really good money a month earlier, sold a 2 year old breeding bull for good money the day before. We were sitting much better than others when the news came. So we coasted through the rest of 2003 without much issue. 2004 and 2005 were the really lean years. By 2006 prices had ticked up a fair bit and we had a backload of culls to sell, so income stabilized a bit.

[kato]

I was working at the vet clinic. We found out first. Called my husband who was at the auction mart just as the news hit there. He said it was amazing. The sale stopped with a calf in the ring. Everyone packed up and walked out to go call back trucks that were on their way to the border. The unsold cattle were sent back to their farms. Within minutes the place was empty. Surreal. Then we had to figure out how to get out from under the 130 suddenly expensive feeders we'd just brought in, as well as the new truck we just took delivery of. We got out from under the calves in February of the next year, and somehow managed to pay for the truck, which we still drive.

Thus began the journey.

Agriville became a lifeline. This was where the action was. It all turned us into a bunch of activists. We learned how to scrap directly with RCALF. We made friends all over the country. Right burnt? We survived though. Came out a much tougher bunch. On our farm it made us better managers too. We quickly developed a no second chance policy on the cows. In the long run we've ended up with a better more trouble free herd. Hopefully it's good enough to finance a retirement under our own terms.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I honestly don't remember where I was, likely at work though. We had just recently expanded to over 300 cows. And were enduring the 2nd ( and worst ) year of record drought.

I would just add to the comments about prices being back to pre BSE levels but costs having ballooned. The same is roughly true for grain, but efficiencies and productivity of crops has increased substantially in grain. A cow still only produces one calf per year( at best), still eats just as much, still a limit to how many cows one cowman can effectively manage and calve out. There were many places to gain incremental efficiencies along the way, but nothing as drastic as No-till, herbicide tolerant crops, technology and big equipment have been to the grain side of the operation.

[the big wheel]

I honestly don't remember where I was, likely at work though. We had just recently expanded to over 300 cows. And were enduring the 2nd ( and worst ) year of record drought.

I would just add to the comments about prices being back to pre BSE levels but costs having ballooned. The same is roughly true for grain, but efficiencies and productivity of crops has increased substantially in grain. A cow still only produces one calf per year( at best), still eats just as much, still a limit to how many cows one cowman can effectively manage and calve out. There were many places to gain incremental efficiencies along the way, but nothing as drastic as No-till, herbicide tolerant crops, technology and big equipment have been to the grain side of the operation.

That is true about grain but what type of efficiency are we referring to? The one where you use all the new things equipment inputs etc? They all are way out to lunch on price. We are producing more off an acre but the cost per acre is too high meaning more acres needed to pay for the new technology etc and if you have a wipe out a couple years say good bye.

[smcgrath76]

That is true about grain but what type of efficiency are we referring to? The one where you use all the new things equipment inputs etc? They all are way out to lunch on price. We are producing more off an acre but the cost per acre is too high meaning more acres needed to pay for the new technology etc and if you have a wipe out a couple years say good bye.

I think the difference is the scalability that technology has given grain production. There is a big difference between an old 30' hoe drill and even a used 40' air drill. Adding another quarter section means a few hours on the drill and (weather dependent) a few more on a combine. A quarter of Canola at 30 bu and $10 generates $48000. That same cash flow would take at least 50 cows. If you add a 1/2 that is $96000. A bit of marketing and agronomics (and luck) and that could be $150,000 plus. It is not hard to see how that does not favour the cow guy. There are not a lot of folks with the skill set to add 150 cows without adding additional labour and for sure not in a couple of days a year.

[the big wheel]

I know the cattle situation has and is tough my folks did that and I have to say I don't miss those days at all other than I do have found memories of working with my folks and handling the stock.

But those numbers really need some clarification
A quarter of grain land is costing what anywhere 250 to 400,000? Payments on that are what 30,000 to 40,000 a year?
Taxes?
Let's say you rent. 100 bucks is 16,000
Canola seed 65 x 160 is roughly 10,000
Fertilizer and chem go cheap 90 bucks 160 is what 14 to 15,000
Spread out the equipment over all the land and what would that be? Quite variable.
Doing it yourself or if farming more labor costs?
Accounting?
Gots some bugs?
Trucking?
And maybe insurance 20 bucks 3200
Fuel?
Repairs?
See what I mean? Now take those costs and have 2 years of wipeouts? That 48,000 doesn't give you much of anything on that 30 bushel year.

[smcgrath76]

I know the cattle situation has and is tough my folks did that and I have to say I don't miss those days at all other than I do have found memories of working with my folks and handling the stock.

But those numbers really need some clarification
A quarter of grain land is costing what anywhere 250 to 400,000? Payments on that are what 30,000 to 40,000 a year?
Taxes?
Let's say you rent. 100 bucks is 16,000
Canola seed 65 x 160 is roughly 10,000
Fertilizer and chem go cheap 90 bucks 160 is what 14 to 15,000
Spread out the equipment over all the land and what would that be? Quite variable.
Doing it yourself or if farming more labor costs?
Accounting?
Gots some bugs?
Trucking?
And maybe insurance 20 bucks 3200
Fuel?
Repairs?
See what I mean? Now take those costs and have 2 years of wipeouts? That 48,000 doesn't give you much of anything on that 30 bushel year.

That's the tough part of grain farming. Around here, cattle ground is just as pricy but the cash flow is less. It is hard to say if equipment is driving the grain farm, or the grain farm is driving the equipment. $1,000,000 worth of equipment is peanuts nowadays, so that same equipment has to cover more acres to get the cost down. If we add rent/interest costs that are increasing, then the equipment cost has to be driven lower still or cash flow has to increase... Not sure where the cycle ends.