Fifteen years ago today.....

[smcgrath76]

That is true about grain but what type of efficiency are we referring to? The one where you use all the new things equipment inputs etc? They all are way out to lunch on price. We are producing more off an acre but the cost per acre is too high meaning more acres needed to pay for the new technology etc and if you have a wipe out a couple years say good bye.

I think the difference is the scalability that technology has given grain production. There is a big difference between an old 30' hoe drill and even a used 40' air drill. Adding another quarter section means a few hours on the drill and (weather dependent) a few more on a combine. A quarter of Canola at 30 bu and $10 generates $48000. That same cash flow would take at least 50 cows. If you add a 1/2 that is $96000. A bit of marketing and agronomics (and luck) and that could be $150,000 plus. It is not hard to see how that does not favour the cow guy. There are not a lot of folks with the skill set to add 150 cows without adding additional labour and for sure not in a couple of days a year.

[the big wheel]

I know the cattle situation has and is tough my folks did that and I have to say I don't miss those days at all other than I do have found memories of working with my folks and handling the stock.

But those numbers really need some clarification
A quarter of grain land is costing what anywhere 250 to 400,000? Payments on that are what 30,000 to 40,000 a year?
Taxes?
Let's say you rent. 100 bucks is 16,000
Canola seed 65 x 160 is roughly 10,000
Fertilizer and chem go cheap 90 bucks 160 is what 14 to 15,000
Spread out the equipment over all the land and what would that be? Quite variable.
Doing it yourself or if farming more labor costs?
Accounting?
Gots some bugs?
Trucking?
And maybe insurance 20 bucks 3200
Fuel?
Repairs?
See what I mean? Now take those costs and have 2 years of wipeouts? That 48,000 doesn't give you much of anything on that 30 bushel year.

[smcgrath76]

I know the cattle situation has and is tough my folks did that and I have to say I don't miss those days at all other than I do have found memories of working with my folks and handling the stock.

But those numbers really need some clarification
A quarter of grain land is costing what anywhere 250 to 400,000? Payments on that are what 30,000 to 40,000 a year?
Taxes?
Let's say you rent. 100 bucks is 16,000
Canola seed 65 x 160 is roughly 10,000
Fertilizer and chem go cheap 90 bucks 160 is what 14 to 15,000
Spread out the equipment over all the land and what would that be? Quite variable.
Doing it yourself or if farming more labor costs?
Accounting?
Gots some bugs?
Trucking?
And maybe insurance 20 bucks 3200
Fuel?
Repairs?
See what I mean? Now take those costs and have 2 years of wipeouts? That 48,000 doesn't give you much of anything on that 30 bushel year.

That's the tough part of grain farming. Around here, cattle ground is just as pricy but the cash flow is less. It is hard to say if equipment is driving the grain farm, or the grain farm is driving the equipment. $1,000,000 worth of equipment is peanuts nowadays, so that same equipment has to cover more acres to get the cost down. If we add rent/interest costs that are increasing, then the equipment cost has to be driven lower still or cash flow has to increase... Not sure where the cycle ends.