What Are the Odds?

[rsomer]

Sometime this week the results of the DNA analysis of the Washington Holstein cow will be announced. If one believes the press and the U.S. officials, the cow will have come from Canada. With some help from family members who have much better math skills than I have we calculated the probability of a Canadian cow being tested positive for BSE in the United States at 1 in 16,236,748,670 or 16.2 billion.
Compare the BSE cow with the probability of winning the following major lotteries:

US Powerball: 1 in 80,089,128
Australian PowerBall: 1 in 54,979,155
French Lotto: 1 in 13,983,816
Canadian 6/49: 1 in 13,983,816
Irish Lotto: 5,245,786

You are 202 times more likely to win the major U.S. lottery as having a Canadian cow test positive for BSE in the United States. You could be expected to win the 6/49 1100 times before expecting to see a test result such as we have seen in Washington.
I am amazed that people are willing to believe that this cow came from Canada. Given pure chance and probability it is a pretty remote event. True, if American officials have been targeting Canadian cows for BSE tests it will increase the probability of a Canadian cow testing positive. However, the most likely explanation is the cow is American and a Canadian Holstein has been sacrificed for her ear tag and DNA sample.
The Canadian beef producer really is the one being sacrificed here for the good of the North American beef industry. The Canadian industry is just too willing to accept that this cow is Canadian because they believe what is good for the U.S. is what is good for Canada. Too bad it doesn’t work both ways.
People will believe anything.

[rusty1]

rsomer - I believe that if someone didn't change her tag after the fact, it's reported she had a CCIA barcode tag in her ear.
However I think we could jump up and down and use "the science" - If anyone can PROVE BEYOND REASONABLE DOUBT that she had BSE when she left Canada then we will stand good for all the USA losses.

[cowman]

Well somehow I don't get yor math. I mean if the American catfish farmer had sold the Angus cow in the fall, instead of keeping her, there would be a good chance she would have been slaughtered in the USA. Consider how many cattle we sell into the USA each year? Now if we have a contaminated feed source here then probably a lot of Canadian cows entered the US that had ate that feed?
The important thing here is not whether she was a Canadian or American cow. Apparently there was a very free movement of ruminant based feed products across the border prior to 1997. So the original feed source could have come from the US or Canada.
The fact is both the US and Canada have a problem. The USDA and the Canadian Food Agency know it and quite frankly I have a hard time believing an American Government vet would switch tags and lie.

[rsomer]

I am bothered by fact that the Washington Holstein was not a Canadian cow until December 27, 5 days after the first preliminary tests on December 22 and eighteen days after the cow was slaughtered and any evidence such as ear tags would have been gathered. Not to mention that Dr. DeHaven announced on December 23 that the cow was 4 ½ years old which later got changed when that did not fit with the animal the USDA were trying to say came from Canada.
cannot believe that the USDA would not have known on December 9 that the Holstein was a Canadian cow, that the USDA did not know on December 23 that the Holstein was a Canadian cow, that the USDA did not know until December 27 that the Holstein was a Canadian cow. Could the reason be she was not a Canadian cow?

[boone]

POST: I heard in one of the ag chats that there was another Cow standing on a grassy knoll, and if you watch carefully on one of the home movies you can see another shadow of a similar looking feed mill. I wonder?

[kato]

There will be a book coming out on it next week, and they are casting the movie right now.

I think they will get Carrot Top to play the chief investigator.

[boone]

Post: scepticism is a healthy part of intelligence, and Lord knows we have had our pumps primed, but let's go easy here and leave the conspiracy theories to people with less to win or lose.

[jensend]

i would like to know why they haven't killed and tested the other nine animals in the index herd that also came from the alberta herd. i can't help but be suspicious that they want to do as little testing as possible because they fear the results. if they give the impression that they are trying to manage rather than discover we're all screwed.

[pandiana]

I have the feeling that they are testing everything that they can trace. This would only make sense. News this pm said they were still looking for some of the 'index' animals that came from the Alberta herd.

They are now destroying the entire herd of 450 calves in which the supposed holstein's calf went to because they could not identify this calf within the herd. No meat will be sold buy all incinerated.

Somewhere I read that they have the'Dad' dna which will allow them to identify the cow. One can only wonder how 1 of 16 holstein bulls can single out this calf as there would be a possibility that all Alberta export cows or their offspring could have been sired by this or a closely related bull. I think they have their work cut out for them.

[pandiana]

I have to agree with rsomer that the events following the slaughter of this cow and the subsequent revelations leave much room for speculation.

I was talking to a person last night that said that the ears of the slaughter cattle are the only thing that are not used and end up in a box on the killing floor. The animal carcass is identified by its place on the hook. Knowing how things work in most situations all employees are not dedicated to accuracy especially if they don't see the point.

Speculation at its best, but from the reaction of Dr. Evans I don't think we are the only ones that a skeptical.

[cowman]

And why are they destroying the 450 calves because one of them might be her offspring? Was the calf fed the same feed from the Leduc feedmill that the cow ate 4 years previously? Maybe they packed her a lunch to take to Washington?
We are told this is a feed problem. So how come we kill her calves? If now they think it might be a genetic transfer maybe we should also look at the bull that sired her?
The "science" says one thing but the actions suggest another? Do you ever wonder if they are winging it on this one?

[kato]

I think there's a bit of 'winging' going on. Where's the other 70 or so cows? Come on guys...get tracing. This is a test, and Japan is keeping score.

Also, if they are going to slaughter those calves right away, why are they waiting for definite DNA identification to slaughter the herdmates? I don't get it.

I think the DNA from the bull is to help identify the cow, not because they think there is something wrong with the bull.

[cowman]

And of these 450 calves they are going to slaughter and test why would they incinerate them? I mean if they test them and they are all clean why destroy perfectly good meat? First they tell us it is a feed problem. Then they say they need to kill her offspring. Then they need to kill and destroy all cattle that come in contact with that offspring. Wheres the "science" on this one? Doesn't this go against all the known science?

[pandiana]

Excellent point cowman!

[pandiana]

Yes Kato, I would think they are using the sire dna to ID the cow. I guess my point was that if, as previously stated, only about 16 sires are currently used to propogate Holsteins, in all likelihood, most of these cows would be related to some degree, maybe siblings.