Testing All Cows

[cakadu]

Let me get this straight - France tests and comes up with 130 positives and there is no mad panic? We test positive for 1 - let's be perfectly clear here - the other one was born here, but at this point there is absolutely NO evidence that says she was infected here, so it is in fact a U.S. first known positive case as well -- and borders slam shut everywhere.

Are we comparing the same things? Sure the French consumer is satisfied, but how much beef does France export around the world? Is it comparing apples to apples to compare them to our situation? I don't know the answer, which is why I am asking. Do we know for sure that beef consumption by French consumers hasn't been impacted - has it dropped or increased because of the testing and stated results?

Rusty is quite right - without something measurable and definitive in place, we are just setting ourselves up for the next positive case and the next one.

[topper]

The reason the French are confident in their beef is the fact that anything that tests positive does not enter their food supply which is way different than it is here. In canada even though we have only found one positive cow people do not have a clue if there are more because we do such a little amount of testing. If we tested 100% of everything over two years old like they do in France then it wouldn't matter if we found a thousand more positves the consumer would know for sure that the meat he is feeding his family is safe. The producers in Canada can either spend the next while trying to convince the world that our beef is scientifically safe, while everyone goes broke or test everything and prove once and for all that is safe!!!! It seems so simple to me maybe I'm missing something.

[cowman]

You've got it Topper!

[jensend]

maybe somebody could explain this to neil jahnke. he seems to think we can go back to the future. our 'leaders' are taking us backwards. the world changed for canadian beef producers last may and we might as well recognize it and deal with it. the 'science' isn't winning our markets back so let's try start with the consumer and see what they want. we can produce all the safe beef we want but we still need buyers and part of the sales pitch is going to have to be proof of safety. the industry has it backwards. they are trying to tell the consumer what to think (and it works sometimes) instead of listening. this time the consumers will tell us how it works. it is not in the american interest to import our beef so let's go elsewhere. there is an integrated n. american herd but the n. american beef market ceased to be integrated last year.

[topper]

I couldn't agree with you more Jensend, I have big time concerns with this extra little bit of testing that Bob Speller announced the other day, all it will do is maybe lead to finding a few more positive cases and then we will be right back to square one again. Then after everyone is broke they will go to blanket testing. I say the sooner we go to 100% testing the better for everyone in this industry.

[rusty1]

do the math topper.
you say consumer confidence is the issue. That's crap. Has nothing to do with consumer confidence at all. And I know it has not escaped youre attention that the consumption in Canada has gone up (I've heard) 65% to 67% since May20th. That is so far beyond anything ever experienced any where in the world there is no parallel.
The news in the US is since theirs hit the fan has also gone up.
mark my word and I know you know, this whole thing is only about trade protectionizm. NOTHING MORE

[topper]

Rusty1: The canadian consumer has stuck with us up until now but will they after two or three or ten or more cases of BSE. Sooner or later are they not going to start asking if our beef really is as safe as we think it is. The american consumer is probably more fickle than ours so a few more cases south of the border and I can see that market going for a ride. Now maybe there are only two mad cows in the whole north american continent and I hope that is the case but if we find more we will be testing anyway and too late for most producers to recover from it. As far as the protectionism, nothing we can do will stop other countries from exploiting these kind of troubles to their benefit. I think its time to move on proving our beef safe and not monkey around until our industry is toast.

[rsomer]

Something missing from this discussion is the realization that the decision to test all cows is not Canada’s to make.

France did not decide to unilaterally begin testing of all cows over 2 years of age in 2001, it was a decision of the European Union and it became a requirement of all member states to begin BSE testing. After the active surveillance program began in the EU there was drastic increase in the number of BSE positives. But I believe there were zero trade implications to finding a BSE positive. Trade continued between the EU partner states as before.
Contrast that with the situation within the NAFTA trading bloc. BSE positives do still have dramatic trade implications within NAFTA. Canada cannot unilaterally decide to implement a complete BSE testing protocol if it wishes to remain a member of NAFTA and trade beef within NAFTA as it is almost certain BSE positives will be found. And in case there are any beef producers out there who think their industry is so important that Canada is going to break away from NAFTA because of BSE, they are dreaming in Technicolor. Not going to happen. Ditto if anyone thinks Canada can do without the U.S. beef market and find other markets offshore. Not going to happen either. It is a big bad world out there and there are lots of countries who don’t have BSE who want to sell their beef into the same offshore markets Canada would be looking to.

We cannot draw comparisons between Europe and North America until there is an understanding within NAFTA that the finding of more BSE positives will not act as an impediment to trade. Rusty1 is right, the problem we are facing in Canada is not a loss of consumer confidence, it is outright trade protectionism, mostly by our NAFTA trading partner to the south, Japan too.

Agreed, Japan is saying we need to test for BSE before they will buy our beef. But I am not sure how much Canadian beef they intend to buy anyway. I see that Japan is really trying to use Canada to pressure the U.S. to test American beef. And why not, it does not cost Japan anything as the cost of testing, both monetarily and politically is born by the exporting country. Meanwhile Japan wants to continue selling its manufactured goods into North America as before while it demands more of our exports.
It would be wrong minded to think that if Canada tests our beef and the U.S. does not, that Canada will take over the 50% market share that is presently held by the U.S. It is not going to happen. Japan agreed to up its imports of beef from the U.S. some years ago to avoid threats of punitive political and retaliatory trade measures, not because the U.S. had a better beef product than anyone else. And Japan will be buying beef from the U.S. again in the near future, test or no test. Even if it means they dump it in the ocean.

I do see the Canadian and American officials publicly saying their respective countries will test more animals than in years past. However there still seems to a desire to put off real testing as long as possible until the older cows born before the 1997 ban , especially the dairy cows, pass through the system. The EU tried to make the BSE crisis in Britain a British problem as long as they could but eventually it became an EU problem. The same will happen here. In the meantime, does Canada really want to go it alone and set up a made in Canada BSE testing policy? We can’t unless we are willing to eat all our beef ourselves. These decisions on testing cattle for BSE will be made within the context of NAFTA, not by Canada alone.

[jensend]

speller's plan to test more cows is probably the worst possible option. we test more we almost certainly will find more and could very well lose our low risk status and were out of the american market forever. dont test more and we can pretend the iceberg is going to get out of our way. test everything and you can ask the consumer wheres the risk? the idea that we can work our way out of this thing slowly and everything will turn out well is not going to work as far as im concerned. our market has been shot to hell and i dare you to dispute that. our exports of live animals are cut off and our exports of meat are limited to the point where we are being bent over by the packers. how is that going to get better? trust the americans to do the right thing - good plan. the americans will do what works for them in an election year. we test every animal for the safety of our domestic market and it screws our exports to the states - whats the downside? we arent shipping to the states or anywhere else right now so lets try to figure this out. its always tempting to wait something out but weve tried that and 'good science' is not the answer. maybe the good science is to prove we will not put an unsafe product into the human food chain.

[StrawBoss]

rsomer-- you are right to a point but someday we have to stop rolling over and playing dead because the US tells us to do so. This free trade seems to be a little lopsided and the US will use the BSE scare to keep the border closed indefinitely. I don’t believe we can afford to sit by the fence and howl the problem away or wait for the USA to throw us a bone when they feel like.

The USA can legally keep their boarders closed to all imports of beef hiding behind the BSE scare, and besides all the beef they produce can be consumed by their people, so there is no need to export to Japan if shove comes to push.