Testing All Cows

[topper]

I couldn't agree with you more Jensend, I have big time concerns with this extra little bit of testing that Bob Speller announced the other day, all it will do is maybe lead to finding a few more positive cases and then we will be right back to square one again. Then after everyone is broke they will go to blanket testing. I say the sooner we go to 100% testing the better for everyone in this industry.

[rusty1]

do the math topper.
you say consumer confidence is the issue. That's crap. Has nothing to do with consumer confidence at all. And I know it has not escaped youre attention that the consumption in Canada has gone up (I've heard) 65% to 67% since May20th. That is so far beyond anything ever experienced any where in the world there is no parallel.
The news in the US is since theirs hit the fan has also gone up.
mark my word and I know you know, this whole thing is only about trade protectionizm. NOTHING MORE

[topper]

Rusty1: The canadian consumer has stuck with us up until now but will they after two or three or ten or more cases of BSE. Sooner or later are they not going to start asking if our beef really is as safe as we think it is. The american consumer is probably more fickle than ours so a few more cases south of the border and I can see that market going for a ride. Now maybe there are only two mad cows in the whole north american continent and I hope that is the case but if we find more we will be testing anyway and too late for most producers to recover from it. As far as the protectionism, nothing we can do will stop other countries from exploiting these kind of troubles to their benefit. I think its time to move on proving our beef safe and not monkey around until our industry is toast.

[rsomer]

Something missing from this discussion is the realization that the decision to test all cows is not Canada’s to make.

France did not decide to unilaterally begin testing of all cows over 2 years of age in 2001, it was a decision of the European Union and it became a requirement of all member states to begin BSE testing. After the active surveillance program began in the EU there was drastic increase in the number of BSE positives. But I believe there were zero trade implications to finding a BSE positive. Trade continued between the EU partner states as before.
Contrast that with the situation within the NAFTA trading bloc. BSE positives do still have dramatic trade implications within NAFTA. Canada cannot unilaterally decide to implement a complete BSE testing protocol if it wishes to remain a member of NAFTA and trade beef within NAFTA as it is almost certain BSE positives will be found. And in case there are any beef producers out there who think their industry is so important that Canada is going to break away from NAFTA because of BSE, they are dreaming in Technicolor. Not going to happen. Ditto if anyone thinks Canada can do without the U.S. beef market and find other markets offshore. Not going to happen either. It is a big bad world out there and there are lots of countries who don’t have BSE who want to sell their beef into the same offshore markets Canada would be looking to.

We cannot draw comparisons between Europe and North America until there is an understanding within NAFTA that the finding of more BSE positives will not act as an impediment to trade. Rusty1 is right, the problem we are facing in Canada is not a loss of consumer confidence, it is outright trade protectionism, mostly by our NAFTA trading partner to the south, Japan too.

Agreed, Japan is saying we need to test for BSE before they will buy our beef. But I am not sure how much Canadian beef they intend to buy anyway. I see that Japan is really trying to use Canada to pressure the U.S. to test American beef. And why not, it does not cost Japan anything as the cost of testing, both monetarily and politically is born by the exporting country. Meanwhile Japan wants to continue selling its manufactured goods into North America as before while it demands more of our exports.
It would be wrong minded to think that if Canada tests our beef and the U.S. does not, that Canada will take over the 50% market share that is presently held by the U.S. It is not going to happen. Japan agreed to up its imports of beef from the U.S. some years ago to avoid threats of punitive political and retaliatory trade measures, not because the U.S. had a better beef product than anyone else. And Japan will be buying beef from the U.S. again in the near future, test or no test. Even if it means they dump it in the ocean.

I do see the Canadian and American officials publicly saying their respective countries will test more animals than in years past. However there still seems to a desire to put off real testing as long as possible until the older cows born before the 1997 ban , especially the dairy cows, pass through the system. The EU tried to make the BSE crisis in Britain a British problem as long as they could but eventually it became an EU problem. The same will happen here. In the meantime, does Canada really want to go it alone and set up a made in Canada BSE testing policy? We can’t unless we are willing to eat all our beef ourselves. These decisions on testing cattle for BSE will be made within the context of NAFTA, not by Canada alone.

[jensend]

speller's plan to test more cows is probably the worst possible option. we test more we almost certainly will find more and could very well lose our low risk status and were out of the american market forever. dont test more and we can pretend the iceberg is going to get out of our way. test everything and you can ask the consumer wheres the risk? the idea that we can work our way out of this thing slowly and everything will turn out well is not going to work as far as im concerned. our market has been shot to hell and i dare you to dispute that. our exports of live animals are cut off and our exports of meat are limited to the point where we are being bent over by the packers. how is that going to get better? trust the americans to do the right thing - good plan. the americans will do what works for them in an election year. we test every animal for the safety of our domestic market and it screws our exports to the states - whats the downside? we arent shipping to the states or anywhere else right now so lets try to figure this out. its always tempting to wait something out but weve tried that and 'good science' is not the answer. maybe the good science is to prove we will not put an unsafe product into the human food chain.

[StrawBoss]

rsomer-- you are right to a point but someday we have to stop rolling over and playing dead because the US tells us to do so. This free trade seems to be a little lopsided and the US will use the BSE scare to keep the border closed indefinitely. I don’t believe we can afford to sit by the fence and howl the problem away or wait for the USA to throw us a bone when they feel like.

The USA can legally keep their boarders closed to all imports of beef hiding behind the BSE scare, and besides all the beef they produce can be consumed by their people, so there is no need to export to Japan if shove comes to push.

[rsomer]

Although I am not fond of quoting the CCA, they may be right this time. I have included the entire text of their message for Friday but key phrases include:
Surveillance is not a public health protection measure.
Canadian food is kept safe by the removal of specified risk materials at slaughter, which prevents all potentially infectious material from entering the food system.
Because we’re calling on our international trading partners to re-open their borders based on sound science, Canada’s decisions on such things as surveillance and testing must also be based on science.

http://www.info-cca.ca/
"Federal Agriculture Minister Bob Speller announced to the media yesterday that Canada will increase its surveillance of cattle to 8000 over a 12 month period. This will exceed the requirement established by international standards. Surveillance is not a public health protection measure. Surveillance determines the prevalence of BSE in Canada and measures the effectiveness of programs in place to prevent the disease from spreading. Canadian food is kept safe by the removal of specified risk materials at slaughter, which prevents all potentially infectious material from entering the food system.
The Canadian Cattlemen’s Association supports whatever level of testing the Canadian Food Inspection Agency determines to be necessary based on international guidelines and sound science. Because we’re calling on our international trading partners to re-open their borders based on sound science, Canada’s decisions on such things as surveillance and testing must also be based on science.
The CCA is continuing to work to get the U.S. border re-opened to Canadian bone-in beef and live cattle exports based on sound scientific principles."

Something I have been wondering about, aren't we still shipping boneless cuts to the U.S. I haven't heard or read anything to the contrary. If we are, then, yes, we have something to loose as an industry.

[jensend]

rsomer - i too am skeptical about how much beef the japanese want to buy from us but consider the scenario if we were testing to their standards when the cow in washington tests positive. the japanese went to australia to investigate larger purchases; its not inconceivable they would be talking to us as well or instead. we are relying too heavily on the americans and they know it and love it. it doesnt take a deep thinker to realize that diverse markets are more reliable. with universal testing we can only gain credibility as far as food safety is concerned. the meat cuts were shipping to the states are at best second prize. they are just throwing us a bone so to speak and its only for those good american corporate citizens - tyson and cargill who have probably had some input into the present situation.

[rusty1]

jensend "maybe the good science is to prove we will not put an unsafe product into the human food chain". I agree, the fact remains, the real danger to human health from BSE derived from beef is totaly PERCIEVED. If the International bodies would place BSA in the rightful catagory, (in comparison to say smoking) then there would be no need for testing any more than we were post 520.

[cowman]

In the end the consumer will decide what is safe. I believe there is a slow realization that something is just not quite right with our food supply.
The CBC story on France. The article in the Globe and Mail. A lot of people read the Globe and Mail and a lot of people watch the National? And how about the interview with the farmer from Calmar?
The Canadian public bought the "one cow" theory. They might buy the "two cow" theory? At what point do they stop buying it?
If the government continues to dither and kiss the American butt, one day we will wake up and find that no one wants our beef! The price we get for our old cows right now might look pretty good to what could be coming down the road. When the moneys all gone and that old cow can't even pay the freight to the slaughter house what will we do? I hope you all got your guns registered and can buy the ammo, because that might be the only solution? Another dry year and I suspect the guns will be busy this fall?
NAFTA could force us to take American beef. But do you think it would sell if it wasn't tested when ours was? When it sat on the shelf besides meat that had been tested and clearly said so?
I believe the consumer will drag us into being safe meat producers, whether we like it or not. Frankly the "science" is just too shaky to install confidence! And eventually the American consumer will do the same down there. We have a very clear model of how this works in Europe and Japan. Safe food, markets back to normal. What is the problem?

[ValueChainFX]

There is nothing in the rules that say we cannot go beyond the requirements! Good management tells us that we should first perceive a challenge and try to deal with it before it happens! If we built another lab that could test for BSE that same lab would be used for other things as well! Food safe issues will be in our faces always so why not be prepared. Yes we always have to fight for air with the politics and protectionists, but as we sit an count our losses daily does that help? You can't steer (no pun intended) a parked car! Since the French started testing their meat sales have gone up and confidence in the system seems high. Also their tracking system will soon allow a consumer to get every piece of information about the animal they desire from the net! Looking at this from a producer point of view, you will be able to get the information from the net as well! Maybe you can finally get some end of the line information on what your animals are doing in the market place and in turn use this information to run your business?

[jensend]

rusty1 = i know exactly what youre saying about the perceived danger being greater than the real danger but to our consumers perception is reality and there comes a point where for our own good we quit trying to educate them and give them what they want for our own good.