CBC last night?

[ianben]

BSE changed things here big time. Grassfarmer is in Canada, we keep next to no beef cattle, lots of others have gone out of farming altogether.

It was hard to adjust to the new ball game. Some farmers seemed to think it would go back to how it was before and kept paying high prices for all stock too long.

Consumption may be back but prices are not at pre 96 level.

BSE keeps being found slowly round the world making cheap beef available for import.
Government program was not to save farmers but keep possible contaminated beef out of food chain. Cost of removal verses possible cost of lots of people with nvCJD. 7 years on and looks like risk must be gone as one day soon all cattle will be safe they say.

Will there be a market for this beef which had to be burned yesterday but is safe today?

Of course there will be at a price and so prices will fall all round.

No good news with BSE.

[cowman]

And Ian consumption actually went up in Canada...around 60%! Of course the prices to the farmer tanked and prices to the consumer are right back up there. But you are certainly correct when you say things have changed and will never be the same. And if guys like grassfarmer can make a go of it with $200 cows and 83 cent fats then all the power to them.
So what happens to the rest of us? Do we plow up our land and start raising grain? But wait a minute...thats why we got into cows! Because we couldn't make any money raising grain!
The good thing is most of our farmers are just about at that age where they should retire anyway! And I guess the young ones will have to learn to live with $200 cows and a less lavish lifestyle? And I guess many will go broke and have to go to work at Walmart for minimum wage!
As you say BSE is not pretty.

[kato]

The worst thing about all this, is there's really nothing left in agriculture in Canada that makes any money. That's the main reason there are so many cattle in the country. It was the only thing left with any potential.

Pig prices are in the tank, as are sheep. There never was much money in grain, at least in the last few years. Who's going to go out and spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on equipment to get into that, anyway. If I had a quarter of a million dollars, I surely wouldn't be spending it on a combine!

The diversification experiments are blowing up in everyone's face, too. Elk farmers around here have no markets, and have so much red tape around their industry, that they can't even reduce their herds. They need a DNA test costing over a hundred dollars, even if they put an animal down on the farm. They aren't even allowed to do it themselves, they need a vet to do the job. Then they need to find a way to dispose of the animal. It's really nasty. They have no market, and no way to get out without going broke doing it.

The PMU people have been doing well over the last few years, but they have been totally decimated this year. Operators who have been raising horses for 30 years have been told they are no longer needed. They are at least getting a buyout and compensation from Ayerst, but they are also watching their really good heavy bred mares selling into the States for a hundred dollars apiece. These were four thousand dollar horses last year. There are fall colt sales here where you can go and watch literally hundreds of purebred Belgian colts go through the ring, all looking alike, from one owner, on one day. It's an amazing thing to see. It's also all over.

I hope our government sees just how close Canadian agriculture is to collapse. Don't be too hard on the supply managed commodities...they may be the only ones left.

[cowman]

kato: I think you are exactly right. We have been reduced to where basically there is nothing left. Where I live you see a lot of people going into berries but how many berries can you sell? When too many get into it the prices will probably collapse. The start up costs are steep and there is virtually no infrastructure in place to process and market the product. Besides it takes about four years before you start to produce.
Do you think there will be another large exodus out of agriculture? Or just the same slow erosion that has been going on for some time? The cattle industry isn't viable right now and it looks fairly bleak for the near future at least. The hog business is ruined and I think we are down to something like 1400 producers in Alberta.
Perhaps the farmer of the future will be either a hobby farmer or a large corporate farmer.
In the county I live in the vast majority of the farms are cow/calf. Now a lot of these farms are of the hobby variety...which doesn't necessarily mean small! I know of one guy who has 500 cows and couldn't care if he ever makes one red cent(oil money). Is that what the future holds?