Feeder prices

[grassfarmer]

What do you all think of the post Christmas feeder trade (ie @80c/lb)- is it realistic, will it remain at these levels?
How many of you are still feeding last years calves and wondering when to sell them? Is this the time to consider retaining ownership and put them into a feedlot rather than sell as feeders?

[frustrated1]

so, i'm not the only genius who hung on to thier calves. and apparently there are a lot out there in the same boat from what i've talked to. that's the scary part. do we hope for better or cut our loses now considering the dollar and the distinct possibility the exports will be closed for some time to come. it could get worse as more are forced to sell for either cashflow or feed shortage. now the dollar looks a bit more favourable to trade this week but the other question will be feed. do we have enough? do we keep them to finish? sell them prior to and let someone else make a coin. or lose it? i think paying someone else to feed them at this point will make some money for the custom feeder. you'll just be sticking your neck out a little farther. but if you have any answers, i'm listening, i've made every wrong move possible the last two years in the hopes of coming out on top. now i'm sitting on a pile of cows and hungry calves to feed as well. but if the border opens......... aw, the eternal optimist. or maybe just stupid.

[grassfarmer]

Yes frustrated 1, I to kept some calves, about 60% of them, with the plan to sell 1st March. Without the border open the fats are now back up to @85c/lb like they were pre Christmas but the feeders are still tanked. My guess for now is to wait and see - if it doesn't improve by mid Feb. I might be looking to retain ownership. How many people need to sell cattle in January - or before they start calving again? I wish I knew. Is this what is driving hay prices now? Cowman do all your hay friends still have piles of it and no buyers?

[cowman]

There is no shortage of hay around my neck of the woods. The problem is the price, which hasn't come down at all. So much of the hay grown here is put up in small squares for the horse trade and the Japanese export market. Most of it was put up in excellent condition and after the high prices of last winter price expectations are high.
Round bales are still in that $75-$100/ton range while square bales are mostly around $3.50 bale which works out to about $115/ton. The Japanese are being very tough on quality this year so some of that timothy hay is entering the horse trade.
I suspect prices will hang in there until buyers are forced to buy or the sellers begin to fear they'll get stuck with it. It can be a very nerve racking game to say the least.

[cowman]

Apparently this feed shortage thing is quite a problem. I was talking to a large cow/calf(600 cows) guy in west central Alta. They usually sell their calves in Oct/Nov but kept them this year with hopes the border would open in the New Year. I mean all the experts were saying when the border opens the man who owns the cattle will make a killing.
Of course they kept just about every cow possible. It was dry out there last year and feed is scarce. Now they face a real wreck. No money to buy and feed is high. The trucking will kill them.
I believe they had a good plan? The markets last fall were erratic to say the least? Up one week and down the next. So they rolled the dice and they lost. This guy is just stressed right out!