Grrrrr

[WoolyBear]

http://www.nfu.ca/briefs/Myths_PREP_PDF_TWO.bri.pdf

[ValueChainFX]

When push comes to shove the perception rules. Our customer is going to vote on your product only when the product reaches a stage it is accepted by that customer. Like any Canadian challenge put before us if it didn't kill us it made us stronger, either by helping us reduce input costs or making more profit from waste.

When centralization was put in place is when the infrastructures in the rural communities started to fall apart. Rural communities began to depend on the bigger centralized operations to take their product. All the rural services that used to support the rural communities could now also go to the urban centers since this is where the infrastructure components in the system were relocated. What is left in the rural communities??? Not much, so the farmer got stuck with higher shipping costs both to the farm (for input costs) and off the farm (for sold product).

Our industry is changing no doubt, our product will change, no doubt! We also have to change, no doubt! Those who change will probably survive (I hope). Those who don't .... well we will see!

[cowman]

Instead of solving our problems we have actually made it worse. This spring how many extra calves will be born? This coming fall how many cull cows and bulls will we have? Very few cows went to slaughter this last year.
When this artificial expansion took place we just dug a deeper hole. The solutions that would have stabilized things just didn't happen. Ian is totally right when he says we need fewer cattle...instead we aggressively expand?
For whatever reasons America has decided they don't want the extra Canadian competition, at least not on the scale it was happening. If BSE hadn't come along it would be COOL or something else.
Our incompetent governments are not doing what they need to do to get this problem solved. What would it cost to test all our cattle and would this even make one iota of difference? How much would it cost to exterminate about one third of the cow herd? The government doesn't seem very willing to step up to the plate on that one do they?
But if it is dry in the west this year and prices don't improve I suspect the guns could be busy this fall! There comes a time when you have to cut your losses and move on.

[pandiana]

cakadu
"I'm very curious to know at what stage did producers bought into this notion of bigger is better and put themselves at the mercy of bigger corporations? "
The short answer I think, as always, is money? One of the major shortcomings of a free enterprise system is that it is based on only one measuring stick, money. Human resources are only considered if profit is threatened. Morality would appear to be an issue only as it influences sales.

I have pondered how these corporations fit in the bigger picture, as well. Ghandi's "The Worlds Most Deadly Sins" include "Wealth without Work". When stockholders, who perform no work directly, but benefit from prooduction..or when speculators buy and sell companies or other real estate, driving up prices without actually producing more work. Do the shareholders, or speculators stop to assess the morality, the sustainability, the effect on communities?


"How is it that we just kept producing more and more of what we couldn't sell? "
I have heard this statement before, but am confused. Before BSE and drought we had expectation of topping the beef cycle with record high prices. Price has always driven production. If you can sell for a good price, you produce as much as you can. With growing expectation of exports, where were the signals that we had too many cows?

[kato]

Cycle..that's the word. The cattle population has never been static. It has always, in the past, responded to the "cycle". Before the BSE thing, numbers were down. The price should have been high, and when numbers came up prices would drop and herd reduction should have taken place. A big fat monkey wrench has been thrown into the whole thing.

Anyone in this business now who was considering retiring, or getting out for whatever reason is still here. When the price comes back to something that makes it less costly to get out, those who have had enough of the stress will be gone. Numbers will readjust to where a living can be made again.

The hard part is that we are having major market crashes so close together. Crash May 20...improve in November...Crash in December.

How much of this can we stand?

[cakadu]

The Growth Stategy in Alberta pre-May 20th called for a 20% increase in the beef herd so that we could be on target with the 20/10 by 2010 - 10% increase in primary production and 20% increase in value-added production by the year 2010. How close we are going to be to those targets is anyone's guess now.

When asked where that additional 20% increase in beef production was going to go, there were no solid answers. Made me more than just a little nervous because too many times we have been told to expand, diversify etc. etc. without any solid plan in place. Finding markets after the production has started just does not work.

Too many times in the past money was just thrown at things without any clear direction or homework being done to reduce the risks involved with these sorts of ventures. Some of it is money to be sure and many people believed what they were being told.

There is some frustration out there that the government won't support new ventures to the tune that they did some time ago. Many people were around when the money flowed freely for new ventures and things, but some of that has come back to haunt the government big time. (If you can, watch Country Canada today as it talks about the fiasco in the elk and deer industries).

Many of the diversification ventures were driven solely by greed and money and became nothing more than pyramid schemes at the end of the day. Playing devil's advocate, can anyone blame the government for not wanting to throw more money at things without some sort of guarantee it will work? In the early 80's there was plenty of money around for processors and such to get going. Now there isn't that money and it is much tougher to get started, I agree with that.

I always have and will always champion the small, innovative venture long before any big enterprise. To me that is where the change is going to come and the sustainability will happen. I think it is something we need to look at more than ever.

[kato]

We've found over the years that when the government comes out supporting some new venture and looking to expand production in any commodity, that it's time to run. They just don't think it all the way through.

These promotions always support one region, at the expense of another. They also distort markets that could have a chance to work if left alone. (In a perfect world)

Over the last few years, Manitoba has been pushing pork production. There's a lot of money that has been spent on some very large and sophisticated facilities. Now municipalities are being flooded with disputes between the hog barns and the local residents. It's one fight after another. The only thing that slowed the expansion is the dismal price of hogs.

Alberta's beef strategy would have had the end result of forcing other provinces to either expand their production, which would have done more harm than good, or else lose the cattle industry the way we lost the packing industry a few years ago.

If a region is suited to cow calf because of plentiful pasture, then that's what belongs there. If they are a big grain producer, then they should be finishing cattle. The packers should be close to the market. Has any of this happened? I don't think see it.

In Manitoba, the loss of the Crow rate made the price of barley and oats less than the frieght costs at certain times, yet we still don't have a feedlot industry of any size. Why not?

It ain't easy being the little guy on the block.

[cowman]

Kato: I would suggest that one of the reasons Manitoba hog production hasn't expanded is the lack of suitable grain? The virtual epidemic of Fusarium gramminerum? The B trains pull into feedlot alley from Manitoba with Tombstone barley and they return with clean barley...now how efficient is that?
Without a doubt Alberta bought the feeding/packing industry! But we did have some natural advantages? The climate around feedlot alley is almost ideal for cattle feeding. The inability to grow wheat, due to climate, and the ability to grow feed barley in Alberta?
Manitoba will only get a feedlot/packing industry in place if their government steps up to the plate. Oh and an NDP government doesn't exactly make those old capitalists too happy?

[kato]

This year there was virtually no fusarium in Manitoba. The crops were good, and the barley is cheap.

Environmentalists are putting big pressure on the hog industry right now. Every barn that goes up faces a big fight. That's slowing things down a bit as well.

There are a lot of feed mills driving the expansion. They don't really care if the hogs make money, because the feed companies get theirs first.

Also, I think the government has been influenced by the packing industry. (aka Maple Leaf...aka the McCain family)
"Promote expansion so we get a steady captive supply of hogs, or else we will move to another province." Throw in a few tax cuts, blackmail the city of Brandon into supplying an expensive waste water handling system, and you're good to go.

The same old story...

[ALICIA]

I know for one that I am not turning the bull out and if things do not improve I just may call in the vet and he will be a steer.
I am done with giving away good beef for nothing, plus it is finally costing to much, and a nice holiday would be nice.
I have to finally agree, I do not count, and that doesn't bother me any more.
Get rid of them any way you can, just get out. THAT IS ONLY GOOD BUSNESS SENCE. You will still have the land.

[WoolyBear]

My 2 cents on the Maple Leaf story....

I see the integration of the ML family of companies (Landmark Feeds, Elite Swine, and Rothsay") as just the makings of a very attractive package for some one to eventually offer to an American company. I think any of them would love to have the entire trough to table setup.

[greybeard]

I have spent a lot of time thinking about the BSE problem when I am out taking care of my pasture puppys .The conclusion I have came to is that BSE is not our problem .Consumtion is up in Canada . Our customers in Canada like the improved quality since we arn't shipping all the best to Japan .The price in the supermarket is good {read high }.
Live animals on the farm are low value to worthless .We don't have kill capacity for anywhere near our production capacity.If the packers drop the price they will still have lots of animals lined up for the next day .Maybe thier own if need be .They are running at full capacity as they can export . Sales don't seem to be a problem. Exports of beef were not far off last year considering they were shut down for months and none is going to asia.
The U S plants killed much of our beef.
That market seems to be getting further away due to an upcoming American election .R-Calf is gaining political power .
Some suggest that our only hope is to test all animals . I can't see how that will help at all . Japan is not going to import live animals . The packers can make more money on high end Japanese cuts but have no reason to send the money down to us as the supply is still almost unlimited to them .
Cull cows are the extreme example of lack of kill capacity . They are a disposal problem if you run a dairy . Yet at the supermarket they have traditional value. Fastfood is still choosing imported product which they obviously consider beter value .We are told ours don't meet the specs. The hamburger I eat at home tastes fine . Much better than fast food or pre-formed patties from the store .
We have to get closer to the end user. Those of us that do will survive . This may include the feedlots that have a good relationship with thier packers .The packers have to keep the wheel turning or pack up and leave when we all go broke . They probably want to keep it going as they are making windfall profits . We all can't survive with current kill capacity .
We will not return to pre - BSE times in the near future . Everone up the chain is realizing higher profits . Will they send enough money down for us to survive ?

[cowman]

Cargill and IBP in Canada made more net profit on two plants in Canada than on their combined total of plants in the USA last year! This was stated on the Rutherford show yesterday. Now do we have any reason to believe that they want to see the border opened?
There was one feedlot operator who phoned in with what I believe was a good suggestion. Limit the number of cattle that the packers can own or control at any given time. Enough to give them a very few days kill. Have all fat cattle competitively bid on a daily cash basis and have all prices made public. You might need to have a central listing agency to handle the paperwork/info. I believe this is basically what happens in the USA?
The government needs to agressively move to help smaller packers get in the game and protect them from the corrupt oligarchy of Cargill and IBP. And probably promote and help in any way a Producer co-op type packer(s). The government was the one who created this monster and it is their duty to help solve it.

[johnboy555]

cowman i like you a lot