A good plan?

[lornej]

Don't get too discouraged cowman - remember when you were young and foolish and had lots of ambition , you just put your head down and moved forward - nothing could stop you ! Besides you probably didn't own anything so had nothing to lose . As we get a little long in the tooth we start to realize that we have built something over the years that has value and we get to be a little reflective and concerned that it could all be for not if we get a few bad years in a row . My advice - rent the whole damned place to your cousin , maybe sell a couple of quarters and do some of the things you always wished you had time for - remember , there is no reason to feel guilty for quitting with some money in the bank - the other alternative of course is to keep procrastinating and farm until its all gone !

[frustrated1]

lornej: thanks. think you hit square on the head what's been bugging me the most. used to be damn the torpedos, if everyone's doing it, we'll do the opposite, gamble, what do we have to lose? it's worked well and put us in a reasonable position. now we've got something to lose and through no fault of our own may be closer to losing it than we ever have been. never pulled in the reins before. now i find myself in some very unfamiliar territory trying to see where the herd went. i really hate second guessing myself. my worst fear is to screw up so bad i have to go get a real job. or do i put my head down and charge again............??

[countryguy]

Don't give up now boys! You've come this far and worked too hard to throw in the towel now! Only the strong will survive.

Believe it or not there are good times ahead for farmers.World grain stocks are at bin bottoms and can tolerate no glitches in production anywhere in the world.The US cattle stocks are at 50 year lows.Surely at some point here they'll want and need our cattle again and if that border does happen to open watch the prices soar on all those cattle in your pens!

Whoever has made it this far in this business deserves a huge pat on the back.We just have to endure this little glitch just like we have taken all the other ones in the past.Now get those chins up and put that smile back on your faces.

[pandiana]

I can't help but wonder how the killing of billions of chickens, ducks etc. will impact on the global meat market. Will this directly affect our chicken sales,..pork? The need for high protein meat products isn't going to go away.

[Smithy]

Thanks for the pep talk countryguy...I think we all needed it.
Between drought and bse the last year or so has been discouraging but there is a big hungry world out there and beef is a pretty tasty source of protein.

[kato]

We all need a good pep talk.

Everyone around here is starting to crack under the strain. We all got our emergency loans from the Manitoba government last fall. Well, they've all been spent, and things haven't picked up yet. Now we are looking at the same markets as last summer, and we are even deeper in debt.

They had a disasterous pre-sort sale in Brandon today. You could buy 900 lb heifers for 55 cents. Steers the same size were a whopping 62 to 68 cents. These were better quality animals too.

Why anyone would take cattle to an 1800 head presort with the markets the way they are, is anyone's guess. They must have really needed the money badly, and right now, no waiting. At a presort, you have no control...you cannot pass if it all goes to pieces. These poor guys just had to take it on the chin. Now the gloom and doomsayers are getting control, and we have to fight off the temptation to listen to them.

That which doesn't kill you makes you stronger. I guess when this is over, the ones left standin will be invincible.

[cowman]

With fat steers trading around 83 cents I would say those feedlots are either going to make a killing or else they know something the rest of us don't!
Are they anticipating a heavy drop in fat prices? Those 800 lb. steers should be just about ready come barbeque season and you would think the price should be up? So what do you think is happening here?
I wonder if the price of fats falls into that 55 cent range this summer(which those feeder prices suggest) we will see a $2 T-bone for sale at Safeway?

[kato]

Brandon auction mart today. Example- hereford heifer 640 lb. 53 cents, Red Angus heifer 610 lb. 69.5 cents,Limo heifer 525 lb. 52.3 cents. Steers - 70 to 73.75 cents for 600 to 625 lb. These were the good calves. The bigger ones were lower than that. There was even a Hereford steer 900 lb. that sold for 40 cents. Heifers in the 900 pound range were selling in the 50's.

With the American investigation so close to an end, and the international panel making the recommendations they did, why is the price dropping? I don't understand it. The dollar is even down.

Is someone trying to set up a cheap market so they can fill up pens? Or has everyone reached the end of their rope and given up?

If only we knew.

[Willowcreek]

Kato
Could the packers be anticipating the fact that they may be able to import a lot of cheap beef into the US from Australia? I have read numerous reports about all the money the US packer conglomerates have and are investing in feedlots, packing facilities, feedlots and contracted cattle in Australia- then now a new Trade Agreement is being negotiated between the US and Australians. No one knows exactly what the details are but scuttlebutt says that it will open up North America to unlimited Australian beef and dairy products. Could the packers know what is going to be the results of these negotiations? Could they have the US govt. bought off?

[kato]

I don't know, but a couple of weeks ago a friend of mine read on a market newsletter that with the new Japanese market for Australian beef, the Australians were short of beef for their American orders.

I would think that with Japan buying Aussie beef, wouldn't it be less of a "cheap" source? The Aussie dollar isn't much different than ours, and their beef should certainly have more bidders now than ever before. It shouldn't need a discount to move it.

All I know is that something smells fishy here. (And it's not farm raised salmon! LOL)