A good plan?

[kato]

We all need a good pep talk.

Everyone around here is starting to crack under the strain. We all got our emergency loans from the Manitoba government last fall. Well, they've all been spent, and things haven't picked up yet. Now we are looking at the same markets as last summer, and we are even deeper in debt.

They had a disasterous pre-sort sale in Brandon today. You could buy 900 lb heifers for 55 cents. Steers the same size were a whopping 62 to 68 cents. These were better quality animals too.

Why anyone would take cattle to an 1800 head presort with the markets the way they are, is anyone's guess. They must have really needed the money badly, and right now, no waiting. At a presort, you have no control...you cannot pass if it all goes to pieces. These poor guys just had to take it on the chin. Now the gloom and doomsayers are getting control, and we have to fight off the temptation to listen to them.

That which doesn't kill you makes you stronger. I guess when this is over, the ones left standin will be invincible.

[cowman]

With fat steers trading around 83 cents I would say those feedlots are either going to make a killing or else they know something the rest of us don't!
Are they anticipating a heavy drop in fat prices? Those 800 lb. steers should be just about ready come barbeque season and you would think the price should be up? So what do you think is happening here?
I wonder if the price of fats falls into that 55 cent range this summer(which those feeder prices suggest) we will see a $2 T-bone for sale at Safeway?

[kato]

Brandon auction mart today. Example- hereford heifer 640 lb. 53 cents, Red Angus heifer 610 lb. 69.5 cents,Limo heifer 525 lb. 52.3 cents. Steers - 70 to 73.75 cents for 600 to 625 lb. These were the good calves. The bigger ones were lower than that. There was even a Hereford steer 900 lb. that sold for 40 cents. Heifers in the 900 pound range were selling in the 50's.

With the American investigation so close to an end, and the international panel making the recommendations they did, why is the price dropping? I don't understand it. The dollar is even down.

Is someone trying to set up a cheap market so they can fill up pens? Or has everyone reached the end of their rope and given up?

If only we knew.

[Willowcreek]

Kato
Could the packers be anticipating the fact that they may be able to import a lot of cheap beef into the US from Australia? I have read numerous reports about all the money the US packer conglomerates have and are investing in feedlots, packing facilities, feedlots and contracted cattle in Australia- then now a new Trade Agreement is being negotiated between the US and Australians. No one knows exactly what the details are but scuttlebutt says that it will open up North America to unlimited Australian beef and dairy products. Could the packers know what is going to be the results of these negotiations? Could they have the US govt. bought off?

[kato]

I don't know, but a couple of weeks ago a friend of mine read on a market newsletter that with the new Japanese market for Australian beef, the Australians were short of beef for their American orders.

I would think that with Japan buying Aussie beef, wouldn't it be less of a "cheap" source? The Aussie dollar isn't much different than ours, and their beef should certainly have more bidders now than ever before. It shouldn't need a discount to move it.

All I know is that something smells fishy here. (And it's not farm raised salmon! LOL)

[cowman]

I wonder if the large feedlots have just basically run out of money? On CBC last night they had Pascal state the bank has pulled the plug on any more buying for him. How many others aren't buying?
A large feedlot has to have a steady flow of cattle. It's like a pipe, cattle out, cattle in. When the flow stops at the intake it doesn't take too long to empty! And when it is empty I suppose it is bankrupt? May as well bulldoze it down and build condominions or something?