Meltdown?

[cowman]

On the CBC last night they had a story of how all of a sudden the marts are full of cattle. I believe Vold/Jones/Vold in Ponoka had about 3600 head this week. It would almost seem the rats are deserting the Titanic before she goes down? A lot of these guys have come to the end of their rope.
Is this the start of the much heralded meltdown? All us guys who listened to the experts telling us "He who owns the cattle when the border opens, will make big bucks" are now in a position of getting our clocks cleaned big time! Sure am glad I sold the steers last fall! But whatever, I'm still stuck with the heifers, which are worth about $150 less than last fall. And never mind the $125 in feed!
Now I will stick with them...it seems I have an uncanny knack for losing more money...but I have the feed and a lot of guys don't! Will Irvine(Calgary Stockyards) said that these guys selling are scared. And I'll just bet they are...with good reason! For them the meltdown is happening right now.
But have no fear because Ralph and Shirley are standing with us, or so they say!

[kato]

It started here this week. Our local auctioneer gave a really pessimistic opinion on the news, and the feed mill phoned within the hour. They are wanting money for feed right now, even if your bill is current. They don't care how good a customer you are. I think the guy spent the day on the phone calling every single customer.

I wonder, listening to that story, if those fellows who have been sitting around a table meeting for the last week didn't help produce a self-fulfilling prophecy. The whole industry has been on the edge for so long, that it wouldn't take much to make it crack.

I also noticed, listening to that story, that they are asking for most money that might come to go directly to the feedlots.

Hold the phone here....there's more to this than just the feedlots. Those cattle have to come from somewhere, and last time I looked they seemed to come from cow herds.

[Horse]

I dont think it is just the B S E thing every where I look there is writeups on south america and australia and how much they can produce and at lower costs than us. I fear that we as cattle producers in this country are an endangered group.

[dalek]

Our local vet clinic (4 vets) usually runs 10-12 hours a day for the 4 of them, doing mostly dairy and beef. Now they're finding that many days they only have one call between the 4 of them.

[countryguy]

I heard the other day that the New Holland Corp has shut down all of its corporate offices in western Canada and Ontario and out of 150 people or so leaving just one guy in Ont and one guy in the west.They will now be conducting business soley from the USA.

The reason?Drastically reduced sales due to the bse crisis.

[cowman]

At the local machinery dealership, the other day, I asked the parts kid how business was. He said sales were almost non-existent but parts and service were holding up their end! Which I could well believe, as I paid $90 for a fuel line that probably had about $2 worth of material in it! You just can't be surprized when you buy parts or repairs anymore!
I don't know how the vet clinics are doing. I have heard people say they won't use the vet...just the gun! Well that sounds a little drastic but maybe makes economic sense?

[dalek]

Cowman if we have a sick cow, we can now buy a fresh Holstein heifer to replace her for $150-200. Doesn't take much of a vet bill to make a bullet look cheap. Our vet clinic also took a $50,000 bath on a heifer exporter that just went belly-up.
Our local machinery dealers are looking for more mechanics because they're doing so much work repairing equipment that would normally have been replaced. Doubt if the extra repair work will help replace the new equipment sales they've lost though.

[kato]

I work for a vet. We haven't noticed a huge drop in business, but then again if she's too bad, we won't know about it. Calving is just starting, too. The better operators are still taking good care of the cows...to the best of their ability. Guys have realized that they have to keep the cows healthy and breeding. Once they are open, then the money is really lost.

There are going to be tough decisions made this calving season. So far, guys seem to be leaning toward..save the calf, it's the only thing with any potential. However, if it is obvious that the calf is already dead before birth, you do what you can to keep the cow in one piece so she can re-breed.

I am wondering what's going to happen in the spring when the bull tests start? I hope guys don't try and save money on that, because boy...you don't want a bunch of open cows in the fall! Talk about the last nail in the coffin.

[cowman]

Kato: How was the preg check business last fall? My local vet oligarchy(they own three practices) told me they were down 9000 head.
I wonder how many purebred guys will be getting their bulls tested this year? They might try to cut corners if they don't think the market will be brisk? Perhaps only agree to a test when the check is in their hand?
I suspect there will be a lot of older bulls down on the farm this year and a lot less young ones bought so the testing business might be there? It could be a rather ugly wakeup year for the purebred guy. He might just learn his $3000 yearlings are really only worth 70 cents?