record calf crop

[cowman]

I have heard that this year we will have a record calf crop in Canada. And I suspect there are a whole lot of yearlings out there that never entered the feedlot system? Besides all these calves and yearlings we have a whole lot of cows around that really need to be dead.
Our various governments decided not to deal with the problem last year and in so doing they have compounded it. I suspect no way is that border going to open until after the American elections in November and maybe not even then depending on who gets in! I hope I'm wrong!
How long will our governments continue to dither and try to apply tiny bandages to a major mortal wound? The cattle are going to start backing up in the pipeline and what we've seen so far could look like a walk in the park?
The solution pure and simple is the pit! Not pretty by any means but maybe better than starvation? All we need now is another wide spread drought!

[rsomer]

cowman: you said "I suspect no way is that border going to open until after the American elections in November and maybe not even then depending on who gets in! I hope I'm wrong!"

I think there is reason for hope that the border is going to open sooner than that.
1. Martin indicated he is going to pay attention to the west. There is probably an election coming up in the spring, April or May. If the border were to open to live cattle, even live cattle under 30 months of age, it would get Martin’s Liberals quite a few more seats in the West.
2. Japan is not going to be successful in blocking importation of U.S. beef for much longer. This is a trade issue and Japan will be importing U.S. beef in the near future with some kind of arrangement that will no longer specifically exclude Canadian beef, the beef will merely have to be certified by the U.S. as safe. The two countries are aiming for a solution sometime between April and June. See: http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/9/8/53122989.html
3. Although earlier predictions suggested Canadian live cattle would not cross the border until at least the second half of 2004, the recommendations of the International BSE Review Panel in the U.S. will tend to move that time frame ahead. The report is favourable toward Canada's position. The report emphasized the integrated nature of the North American cattle industry. It says that the United States cannot dismiss the Washington state case by considering it an imported case. The international report also calls upon the U.S. to demonstrate leadership in trade matters by adopting import-export policies in accordance with international standards, discouraging the discontinuation of irrational trade barriers when countries identify their first case of BSE.
4. Dr. Ron DeHaven indicated on January 27, 2004 that the U.S. investigation into its case of BSE will end in a matter of days or weeks, not months. Previously the U.S. indicated that when the investigation ends the U.S. will resume the process that will inevitably lead to Canadian beef crossing into the U.S.

For these reasons I anticipate a reopening of the border in time for this summer’s BBQ season. I think there will be an announcement in mid April and our calves will be taking a trip south by June of this year.

[Bruce14]

Rsomer, I agree with you except on two points. I expect the announcement to come a bit sooner and I think the 30 month rule will be revised to the 1997 feed ban date.

From what I have heard I also expect live cattle to move south by summer.No certainty in any of this just an educated guess.

We all need to pause for a deep breath and just get on with doing what we can control.

[kato]

It's nice to hear some optimism! We don't hear enough of it lately. Thanks ever so much..made my day.

The last week has been a bear, to say the least.

Tractor had a near-death experience yesterday. Scared the bejeebers out of us. Luckily it turned out that it was just one hot cylinder, but waiting for the engine to cool off was the longest hour we've had for a long time. Blew the dust off, and away it went!

The thought of a tractor blowup right now was just to bad for words! Shows us just how touchy things are, and how the stress has added up.

[cheetah]

Thanks for the optimism. But I think even if the border opens, the prices will not improve much. There are too many animals kept on farms and feedlots waiting for the situation to change. Besides, as mencioned in another topic, there are more calves, since cows that normally would have gone for slaughter, were bred. And still what do we do with cull cows or bulls? The border will open only for cattle under 30 months of age.

[WoolyBear]

You all say there is an oversupply of cattle? Heres the obvious solution.......

Take away the tax breaks, incentives, or whatever that allows lawyers, doctors, and accountants to ovn cattle. It really pisses me off that someone can sit behind a "Profession" and use farming as a write off. How about leaving the farming to someone that is trying to make a living from it. If they aren't willing to take pride in a good calf crop because of the late night checks, then they don't deserve the tax perks.

[WoolyBear]

Opps, I think I might have gotten this on the wrong slot.

[countryguy]

You got that right Woolybear!!!! The only other things I would ad is that hobby farmers and people playing farmer should be done away with,or at least not receiving any money from any program that is meant to help farmers.

I am sick and tired of competing with these people that are not caring if their making a profit or not.We have enough competition from everywhere else,we don't need it right here in our own back yards!!

[WoolyBear]

I keep hearing the word Hobby Farmer.......

If a farmer has 600 acres of crop land, a 50 sow farrow to finish operation, about 30 cows to keep the waste land trimmed and use up some hay that they grow, no money in the bank to expand in any of these commodities, and little extra time to be able to take a full time job, is he a hobby farmer?

[15444]

If he has a full time job, I would say he has more then a 'little' time on his hands. Farming is a full time job itself, and more!

Final answer: Yes, he is a hobby farmer because from what I hear, he isn't even trying to have the farm to support itself! If he was even slightly swift, he would sell that hay that those cows are eating and maybe actually make a profit!

Countryguy: couldn't agree with you more! It is hard enough trying to compete with countries like Paraguay and Brazil without having to compete with people on your own turf who couldn't care less if their operation is in the red year after year, as long as they get to play cowboy!

[WoolyBear]

Gee, thats two opps in a row. This fellow doesn't have an off farm job. I guess I should have said no extra time for an off farm job. Sorry

[cowman]

The problem with outlawing hobby farmers is where do you draw the line? A lot of these younger guys definitely need a job if they are going to get a chance? Maybe the old man never gave them the farm.
Would a man be considered a hobby farmer if he spent one month planting 5000 acres and one month harvesting. Winter in Arizona and summer at the lake? Or how about the older farmer with investment income that far exceeded his farm income? Or heaven forbid the farmer who lucked into an oil well or gravel pit?
Tax money has always driven the cattle market. The doctors,lawyers, and accountants are the ones filling the custom lots.
We need to be careful what we wish for. I would think you could describe everyone in cow/calf this year as a "hobby" farmer! Because we sure as hell ain't doing it for the money!

[raymondb]

I was also wandering if you would classify the person who purchased his land for a very low price years ago and purchased his first herd of cows for a real low price as a hobby farmer. His capital investment is low by todays standards and his net worth on the farmland alone is probably in the millions and he is not farming for income as he could of sold and invested for alot better return than he is making now. He is getting all the tax breaks and did not really work to make his net worth high-Land price increase made him wealthy. He must be a hobby farmer.And there are more people like this than you realize today who are looking for more government handouts.

[cowman]

Well I am definitely a hobby farmer then because the only land I ever bought was a sweetheart deal and I'm all for more government tit!
But somehow I'm not benifitting from it too much...hmmm somehow I must be a dumbie or something! Now on paper I guess I am fairly wealthy but I'm not living a lavish lifestyle and I never will! These damned Scotch genetics!!!

[bombay_43]

Let's not confuse "net worth" with real income! You can't eat your assets!
In our area, land prices fluctuate according to oil and gas jobs. You could be worth way less next year, than you are this year. Those who manage to get off the farm with any type of "nest egg" saved up, will get nailed with capital gains in the end. Don't forget the amount that the farmer is allowed exempt in capital gains, has decreased significantly in the past 10 years!
Many don't have any RRSPs, because the farm, was your retirement fund!
I agree we need to get rid of our farmers who have never seen which end of a cow to feed! They farm on paper, buy and sell, but certainly not to the farmers benefit. I don't know where to draw the line, but perhaps we could set a limit of 50% gross income derived from agriculture? Would that satisfy both the full time farmer, and the ones who want to farm but can't without off farm jobs?
Most of the "hobby farmers" that I know, are farming for the tax benefits, etc. not for the love of this type of life! For those who actually aspire to live off the farm, but can't without off farm income, we need to make concessions. What percent do you all feel would be fair?