Early bull sale prices?

[grassfarmer]

bombay_43, I would disagree with you pessimistic outlook. In my opinion agriculture is not a short term project - people that farm and live hand to mouth from month to month will likely not make it in the long run.What happened to "live as if you will die tomorrow and farm as if you will live forever"? I am an eigth generation farmer and we didn't get where we are by giving in easily or leaving farming to take a job in town, we are here for the long haul.
I was brought up with the bull buying theory that a commercial cattle producer should pay up to the price of 4 fat steers for a herd bull. A seedstock producer should pay up to the price of 4 of his bulls to purchase a new herdsire. Over the years it has looked sensible advice to me and it makes the bull prices look attractive as a buyer this year.

[Bruce14]

That "New Report" everyone is flapping about was written in mid-July 2003.

There were no export markets at all at that time and it might have been a fair assessment AT THAT TIME.

Excuse some of us for being the slight bit realistic and having an attitude that might just see us through this mess.

[cowman]

When we were buying our "top genetic" bulls last year at $3000 we were getting About $1.12/lb. for that 800 lb. yearling or $896. Now for that same yearling we get $.60/lb or $480? So we should be paying $1607 for the same quality.
The old rule of thumb in Alberta was always 3 fat steers for the commercial bull and 5 fats for the purebred herd. That was what the breed associations always pushed, although very few ever paid it! Maybe they figure it differently in England?
The point is how does this look if you are a politician? On one hand we have farmers crying about poverty and having to sell land to survive, or having to go to the food bank, and then they show a complete lack of discipline on their input costs? It's like telling the public you are broke and then going out and buying a new John Deere! It just won't wash!
And let us not forget for one minute that this $3000 bull now has a salvage value of 18 to 20 cents instead of 75 cents.
Maybe the ones buying these high priced "top genetic" bulls are actually the people who are in it for the fun? The doctors, lawyers, accountants, oil field boys? I guess for them the bottom line doesn't really matter?

[grassfarmer]

Cowman, Politicians never know what price cattle sell for - if they need to discuss it in Government they ask someone who knows. Besides no way can $3,000 be considered a huge price for a bull. If lots of purebred guys were paying $50,000 that would look worse in the current climate. The bull I buy this spring will realistically breed me six calf crops on average with over 30 calves to sell per year - say 200 calves of the bull. Paying $3000 instead of $2000 only costs me $5 per calf extra and I think that is a good investment. The return I get on his calves will be spread over 6 years with the calves selling from fall 2005 - 2010 so the price calves are making this week should not be the deciding factor. How have your calves averaged out over the last six years ? - I guarantee a lot higher that the 60 cents/lb you quote today.

[15444]

And then by chance, the bull injures himself trying to breed a cow on the other side of a fence or some other sutpid thing and you just lost a whole heap of money!

If you buy a $2000-3000 dollar bull post BSE, it made sense. Even if the bull got screwed up in his first year, you could get about half your money back. Now the return might be 1/4 if your lucky.

I agree with Cowman. The only ones I can see that are paying the usual prices for bulls this year are the playboys who who want to be cowboys.

Another question I wonder about is how many of these bulls are being bought back by the owners? Have some of your friends in the crowd, paying top price only to turn around and give you the bull to send to slaughter, just so your sale doesn't look too bad on paper!

Another thing you have to wonder is what the price of bulls will be when the test stations have their sales in late March and into April? Looking at stations in Douglas, Gunton and Oak Lake in Manitoba. Thinking that there are either going to be alot of low reserve bids or alot of bulls going home on the trailers!

[cowman]

Ah yes 15444 the old purebred game! Actually I shouln't be ripping the high prices because I've been to enough bull sales in my life where the official news releases had nothing in common to what really happened! If there was a high upset price and 3/4 of the bulls never sold you could still report an extremely high average! We just don't get the number of bulls passed in any of these reports! And there can be a lot of bids to the Flying Rafter Ranch!
I guess then you could peddle them off to the unsuspecting, quoting your high average!
I do know the game! A lot of $20,000 bulls are traded for four $5000 heifers. Makes you look good, makes me look good! That is the game and that is how it is played. It is just good marketing to make the customer happy that he just paid too much.

[grassfarmer]

Take a look at Pandianas response to the original question guys. She quoted Creech's sale averaging @$2600 which is DOWN from $3100 last year. I am not suggesting that buyers should pay the same price as last year but that they would be able to get a BETTER bull for LESS money.

[Bruce14]

Funny how some people find it easier to try drag someone down than to see something positive.

The folks mentioned above had good sales. Not as high as last year but better than most ever thought. They stuck their necks out and advertised and promoted their product probably more than any other year to get people there in a down market.

I would far sooner give them and their customers a pat on the back than have a "what the h@ll is wrong with them" attitude shown by some in this thread.

[15444]

And if they happen to lose a few of these bulls during th middle of the summer, they will be further in the hole and scream blue murder for more government money that they can waste on buying more bulls from the purebred guys. My suggestion is to all is save your money. People will soon see how precious a dollar is once again if the border stays closed for a few years.

Intelligence combined with economic sense and realistic views will pull you through this crisis, not optimism alone.

[kato]

If you are going to buy a $3000.00 bull..INSURE IT! Win Win situation.