Feedlots

[hoover]

The banks are not pulling the plug. The feeder is living by the covenants he signed in the good times. When equity dips below a certain level, less money is available.

Who else is going to get the money in the end? Becuase of how the whole industry is structured, the packer holds ALL OF THE CARDS at this point. They are playing them like masters as well.

With the head US vet coming out and saying it will be several months until the border opens, look for more of the same. The worst is ahead of us, there is probably another 300 million in losses coming over the next six months to the cattle feeder on existing inventory.

[kato]

There was a technical briefing at the USDA today. The transcript is not ready yet, but it will be worth looking at. www.usda.gov

Apparently the official investigation is over, and they are "actively" considering whether to open the border, or whether to extend the comment period. Either way, at least SOMETHING is happening.

Keep your eyes open. Even if the border doesn't open right away, all we need is an indication of the time frame, and we can at least make a plan.

[Bruce14]

Ron DeHaven (the USDA federal vet) is not the one who will make that call or announce when the border will open.

[cowman]

On the news last night they had a little show about how all the ranchers are going broke and getting ready to sell off some land. The opinions expressed were not very optomistic to say the least! The general gist of the show was that the border would not be open in weeks or maybe even months!
I find it disturbing that the American Cattlemans Association and Anne Venneman both have chosen to critcize the international panel as to not understanding the American situation! I guess they were expected to give a blanket endorsement to the American position?
The Americans have the clout to change the rules. So why even have rules? Why not just let IBP or Cargill decide what is best for the world?

[rsomer]

kato: You have hit the nail on the head. If we were provided with a time frame then our industry could plan accordingly for when the border would open. Dr. DeHaven has stated in the excerpt from yesterdays technical briefing that "we now have all of the information that's coming our way as far as the analysis that would be necessary to make that decision (on eliminating the ban on Canadian beef)". This tells me the scientific information is in yet the politics go on and on....
We will have to wait until the politicians decide they are going to tell us when the border will open. I still remain hopeful for an earlier rather than later opening. I expect that we will receive an indication of when the border will open during the Canadian federal election campaign which is widely expected to be called in April.
There is another important date coming up, May 20, 2004. I believe our cattle will be moving south by that day or very soon after. I think something needs to be done by that date and the politicians know it.

[kato]

Did you notice that there was no mention of the "extending the comment period" that we have heard so much about?

I take this to mean that the rules they had set out for the opening before this last cow was found have been thrown out. Good thing..there was so much red tape attached to them that an open border under those conditions would not have helped at all.

This year has been the year of "the last thing in the world you would expect to happen is what happens" A lot of people think an open border is the last thing to expect. Maybe that means it will happen.