Crash go the feeders

[pandiana]

What do you mean, Ianben, when you say we have to cull. I would love to, but short of digging a hole there is no way except give it away. Culling will have the same result as, at least temporarily, swelling the glut of meat in the coolers. The only way we can cull is to find markets for our cows and bulls. No. one goal should be to displace the imported beef coming into Canada. Then look for offshore markets. Macao, or any other place. Sell if ultra cheap to establish markets.

[rsomer]

ianben: Whether we need to cull or not will depend on how long the border remains closed. I do not see our BSE problem lasting nearly as long as yours did, partly because the world has learned a lot at Britain’s expense. We have a rather special situation in Canada with our access to the U.S. market. Our prices will recover even before the border reopens as prices react to the anticipation of market normalization. The North American market is not oversupplied with beef. Canada’s problem is that our access to that market has been cut off and our access to the competition needed to make the markets perform somewhat normally has been cut off as well. I think our situation wherein the Canadian beef packing industry is virtually totally foreign owned is unique in the world. However consumer demand remains strong throughout North America so it is reasonable to anticipate reasonable market prices will return to Canadian producers once access to their market is restored. I think this will happen very much quicker than most are saying. Our problem should not be expected to last many years, I would not expect it to last even many more weeks as long as we don't get any more bad news.

[kato]

The cattle numbers on our farm aren't going to go up, because we won't keep heifers. They will be sold. We are only going to replace a cow if she's open, or to old to carry on. If she loses a calf, and is otherwise healthy, she stays. We usually have enough twins to keep the cow/calf ration close. It just means some cows work a little harder than others. ;-)

When the market returns, then we will cull as usual. However, from now on, longevity will become a higher priority when selecting heifers. Those old girls who can still do the job into the teens have the genetics that will help keep you in business.

[kato]

Oops...That's cow/calf ratio.

[cowman]

Canada will calve out a record calf crop this spring. These calves will have to find a home this fall...somewhere! If the cull cow problem isn't solved this year we will record an even bigger calf crop next year. We are creating a surplus although I do agree with rsomer that it could be reversed tommorrow if the border was to open.
If we had taken those 600,000 cows last year out of the meat system we would be current or in a sustainable holding pattern, instead we are in an expansion mode when we definitely shouldn't be!
Of course an unjustified expansion can't go on forever. Sooner or later it starts to unravel and then it gets real ugly! Our governments decided to roll the dice on the border opening and I hope they are right! If not we are in some serious trouble?

[frustrated1]

the longer the borders are closed, the more the word "cull" means shoot. actually we've adopted that meaning already. maybe several liner loads of older cows turned loose on parliment hill or even our provincial govts grounds would be an idea. if we did this once a month on a regular basis we could rid our supply and make a point. it won't be a great loss to any of us as i think the new reality is that we're married to the cows that are on our farms at present and once they're old enough to vote they might as well head to the government buildings.

[ianben]

Still not sure your optimism over border opening is true.
All those cattle that should have been sold in last 9 months are getting bigger and bigger.
US will have found new suppliers or changed habits, 9/12 months is along time people will have moved on.
The French fought the lifting of the ban on British beef but even now it is gone little or no UK beef is exported.
NO customers!!
What is the situation now US export markets closed also.
Just how big will demand be and how many cattle do you have backed up in the system?????

Cull mean kill!!!! Dig a big hole and do yourselves a favor.

All agree to kill some cows and the poorest calves
10% 20% what ever it takes.

Then make some real money if and when the border opens.

[bombay_43]

I like frustrateds idea about turning culled cows loose at the parliment buildings! It would save us having to feed them, and maybe would prompt the government into making pet food plants so that we don't have to import it from the US! Either that or the SPCA would be busy finding homes for them!

I guess I have been coming around to Ianbens way of thinking with regards to the border opening. I am just not certain that it will make a difference to us in the long run. With the US having made this trade agreement with Australia to accept unlimited amounts of their beef within 3 years, it certainly looks like the US is showing us just what they think of us and our "Alberta Beef".

Maybe our powers that be, should have been looking at picking up markets else where, and catering to other markets as opposed to the US. I feel like they play,and we dance! We should have agreed to test all beef supplies to Japan, and picked up a huge market there. But once again, what the United States says, goes!

Why was our beef to the US cut off, except what they need or desire, yet USA poultry continues to flow across our border after countless other countries have banned it?

It may be time to stand up and look after ourselves, and not count on the US border opening being our salvation. I think over the past year, the anamosity that the US feels toward Canada (for some obvious, and some not so obvious reasons) is shining through, and we cattle producers just happen to be the first in a long line of "Payback"!

[kato]

Daily Update for February 13, 2004

February 13, 2004
Canadian Cattlemen's Association

Macau has become the most recent market to reopen to Canadian beef exports. The agreement allows for meat products from all classes of cattle (both over and under 30 months of age) to be exported. While Macau is a relatively small market, it is still significant in that it is a Special Administrative Region of China (similar to Hong Kong) and is setting precedent for reopening the greater-China market. Another significant element of this announcement is it opens another market for offals and products from cattle over 30 months of age which have been typically excluded from the approved product lists of countries currently accepting Canadian beef. In 2002 the greater-China market purchased over 3,000 tonnes of Canadian beef products. Cattle processing volumes have been running above pre-BSE levels in Canada and new capacity is expected in March to increase this volume by approximately 6,500 cattle per week. Much of the new capacity will be directed towards cows and bulls. Consumer research in both Canada and the United States indicates that domestic demand and consumer confidence have held firm since the Washington State BSE-positive cow was discovered. The United States has completed their investigation into the Washington State BSE case and there are strong indications that the rule making process that deals with live cattle and bone-in beef products that was stalled in January will re-open very shortly for a short comment period and will proceed to final rule completion. The rule could establish the template that many countries will use to re-open to both Canada and the United States. The National BSE Round Table that reports to the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-food Canada is working on various scenarios that look at different dates for the re-opening the U.S. border to live cattle and the transition measures that would be necessary to deal with the various possibilities. In addition, it will look at where the industry wants to be positioned in the future when full market access is restored to reduce its vulnerability to the type of risk the industry is currently experiencing. Unless there are major new developments the next update will be on Tuesday, February 17, 2004. This update has been brought to you by the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association and DuPont Canada.

Don't give up yet, guys.

[cowman]

Bombay: I thought Canada had supply management in chickens and we didn't need to import chickens from other countries? In fact if we get chicken flu we don't really need to worry about any borders closing because we don't export chickens, right? I mean we can just keep feeding Canadians our old sick chickens anyway, and what can they do? They can't bring in healthy chickens?
Kato: I notice your post says at the very bottom "Brought to you by the CCA and Dupont"? Does this mean Dupont and the CCA are in a joint business venture or something? Maybe Dupont owns the CCA? Or is "Dupont" just a front for Cargill or IBP? Maybe Monsanto could get in on this merger also?