Dr. Ron Dehaven

[cowman]

In the latest issue of "Beef Illustrated" there is an article about Dr. Ron Dehaven(the top USDA vet) speaking at the NCBA convention where he states" It will be several more months until the US border opens to Canadian live cattle. It is not going to be this spring". Oh, so when will it be? I suspect maybe in December? After the US elections? Bush is in a fight for his life with the Democrat Kerry and he can't afford to alienate the beef lobby. His outrageous attacks on Kerrys Vietnam service have mainly backfired as the proof comes out Kerry was a war hero while Bush was a coward who did every thing possible to shirk his duty!
So I would think we'd better figure on holding them until next winter or else getting out before the market really tanks?

[rsomer]

I think you have to keep in mind who DeHaven was speaking to, a group of U.S. beef producers who were looking to keep our cattle out of the country.
I still think we will see at least an announcement that the border will open sooner rather than later and still see May 20 as a realistic date. Especially if our government has a spring election. I would expect the border opening to be no more than 3 months away.

[Bruce14]

I agree with you rsomer. What else would DeHaven say. We need to keep reminding ourselves that politics is 80% image and 20% substance and DeHaven is basically an unelected politician. Fortunate for us. he will not be making the call as to when the border opens.

There is a growing group of Americans that want the border reopened. These include feedlots who are having difficulty sourcing cattle and packers who have unemployed workers who also vote. In fact I bet there are more votes in the packing and feedlot industry not to mention the amount of financial contributions they make to political campaigns.

The current comment period ends April 8 with an announcement shortly after. May 20th could well be the date for movement of live Canadian cattle into the US.

[Bruce14]

What also needs to be put in perspective is the fact that the agricultural industry in the USA is mainly made up of pions, just like us. There are likely more Iraqi Americans ready to vote in the almighty elections as there are farmers. Besides that sooner would be better politically as we all remember and punish our politicians for breaking promises after elections....
Don't we?
Border will open soon.

[cowman]

Well I sure hope you guys are right! I wonder though how many people have made alternate plans in case the border doesn't open? I remember how optomistic people were late last year that the border would open in the new year. A whole lot of them got burned big time and were forced to sell into a slumping market because they had no alternate plan? I wonder how many more bad "decisions" we can take?
I'm not asking these questions because I'm all doom and gloom! I'm sitting here with a pen full of heifers, that I should have sold last fall... in hindsight. I guess that makes me a bad manager right? However I did sell the steers into a decent market so I guess I'm only a half-poor manager?
Quite frankly I don't want to get into a situation where I am forced to sell those heifers at fire sale prices. I've been feeding them tough trying to keep the weights(and costs) down so that if I have to I can throw them out on grass and hope like hell the border opens before they are two year olds! I could probably do this as long as we don't get another drought! Or another madcow?
Maybe I'll look brilliant or maybe I'll look like the biggest fool in the country! Thus is modern management?