The future

[grassfarmer]

rsomer, "I don't think the border will open to feeders for a while yet, only animals destined for slaughter."
That's an interesting analysis but one that surprises me a bit. As this is all just a protectionist racket anyway wouldn't it make more sense for the US to open their border to feeders first and fats later? The feeders will be younger - ie further removed from the 30 months age group. More important feeders would allow US feedlots the chance to make good money whereas bringing in fats would only result in a drop if fat cattle prices - something their feedlots wouldn't want.

[kato]

I think a lot of our future is tied to the value of the Canadian dollar too.

If it goes much higher, even without the politics of the present time, we would have to reassess our futures.

I see a lot of retirements as soon as there is enough value to make it worthwhile. There are a lot of people in the business who are not all that committed to cattle to want to stay on much longer either. The ones with other sources of income, and the city investors won't want to live in our uncertain world.

It's up to us to decide our own future. I think value added, with closer ties to our consumers is one way to help stabilize things. Right ValueChain? ;-)

Since we are much more vulnerable to the border closure than other provinces, there is a lot of talk in Manitoba right now about what to do with the future. Almost all of our fats and cows have traditionally gone south.

On the government website www.gov.mb.ca they are inviting suggestions on how to direct things in the future to avoid this mess happening again. Labelled Manitoba Beef is one idea that is gaining popularity.

Sometimes we just need a good kick in the bum to get us started on new ideas.

[rsomer]

grassfarmer: I based the assumption that the U.S. would grant access to live cattle destined for immediate slaughter on Canada’s response to the Washington Holstein where most of the world banned American beef but Canada continued to allow boneless beef under 30 months and live cattle destined for immediate slaughter. Although I would agree that the science would indicate that there is no justification for the U.S. to continue to block access for our feeders, science has taken second place to politics throughout this crisis and no doubt will continue to do so. For instance there was no reason for Canada to block access for U.S. feeders after December 23 but Canada did, politics. I agree with your view of what would happen to the Canadian feedlots if the border were to open to Canadian feeders in the near future. I do not see our governments pouring $1billion into the feedlots to save them and then let them die like that. The Canadian feedlots won’t have to compete with the U.S. feedlots until they have had an opportunity to recover. That recovery will be achieved by having access to Canadian feeders at artificially low prices while selling fats into the North American market, in effect a transfer of wealth from the cow calf producer to the Canadian feedlot.

[grassfarmer]

rsomer, so are you saying that either the Canadian government or some of the beef organisations are/ will be campaigning for only access for fat cattle to protect the Canadian feedlot sector?

[cowman]

rsomer: I expect you are probably right about the grain/cattle thing. You seem to have a good grasp of the big picture while I probably see things in a more local type picture.
I too wondered about raising the cap limit on CAIS from $975,000. I was at the CAIS roadshow when the speaker informed us that the cap had been raised. The guy sitting ahead of me said to his buddy "I guess Cargill wasn't happy just getting $975,000!"
You paint a gloomy picture for western agriculture but I suspect probably the reality.

[rsomer]

grassfarmer: There will be groups and organisations on both sides of the border campainging for their interests. I have just expressed what I see happening as the end result. I do not foresee our Candian feedlots wanting to see Canadian feeders going south when the border opens and they have been very influential up to now. I certainly agree that everyone is playing the protectionist game, Canada included, and that the border will open in stages.

[rsomer]

cowman: Amendment 3 would change CAIS to allow an individual cap of $3million. I believe only three of the necessary seven provinces have signed on to Amendment 3 which would require 2/3 of provinces to agree with 50 percent of production represented so it is not a done deal yet. Alberta signed on in January.
Raising the spending limits to $3million will result in increased growth and expansion of large mega operations such as the very large feedlots and hog barns. I do not see raising the spending cap as being friendly to the average sized farm. I know our local Hutterites have started buying land again.
I personally hope the remaining provinces do not sign on. If Amendment 3 is approved it would certainly be a turning point for agriculture in Canada.

[bshaw2]

Increasing the cap to $3M and the resulting expansion of LARGE hog operations, (and feedlots) is part of the reason that has the National Pork Producers of America is up in arms now and calling for countervail duties and tariffs and all that sort of crap. They are claiming too that some of tax exemption on fuels, MACC young farmer rebates, FCC Flexiloans, and other lower than the bank interest rate loans amount to subsidies........ Any comments?

I think that the loan programs were just a good incentive to try and help out young farmers get started, not for big corps to build more hogs barns that we don't need.

[bombay_43]

How many years have we heard that Canada has to cut subsidies to farmers to "compete" with world markets?

Until the EU and USA, terminate their subsidies, there will be no competing!

We in the agriculture sector in Canada, are slowly being choked to death by high input and low produce costs.

We all know the monies that exist for other countries agriculture sectors. Those who say they don't exist, better take a second look. The reason they exist in other countries, is because those countries have determined the importance of "Agriculture"! Even within Canada, we compete unfairly with Quebec producers who are both federally and provincially looked after with their union.

The remainder of our country, has to wake up and smell the coffee, before there is no agriculture left to "subsidize".

[cowman]

How about the best excuse the government has..."We must cut this program because it violates the WTO"! Goodbye CROW! Goodbye GRIP! Goodbye NISA!
Now this is fine because the whole world is doing the same right? NOT!
In 2002 when the drought was really bad in the barley areas and production was way down what happened? Naturally there was a shortage so the barley prices started to rise. In comes the corn! But of course it was not subsidized now was it? How was it possible that US corn was landing in Lethbridge so cheaply? The US farmer was actually getting more from the subsidy than from the actual price of the corn, but it was a sneaky little bit of government tit! And meanwhile the barley farmer, with his half crop, got beat down on the barley price! Did our wonderful government slap on a countervail? Oh no, we couldn't do that! Why it might hurt the feedlots and the packing industry too much! This is fair?
Then our wonderful tory government "encouraged" the straw and grain to come in that was infested with fusarium! After all we couldn't let the cattle industry go down now could we? That they broke every law in the book, by allowing a known pest in didn't seem to matter? Now what happens if this pest gets a good foothold here and destroys our malt market? Who is to blame? This government needs to quit trying to pick winners and losers and stand up for everybody fairly?