Ralph says...

[cowman]

Ralph Klein says he hopes we will see live cattle moving across the border by late June...hmmm the old three month thing again? I guess he must know that American live cattle are coming across that border right now...or at least we hope he knows that?
I suppose we can be very thankful that for once he didn't seem to stick his foot in his mouth!
When do you think the border will be open? To young stuff? To everything?
Shortly after April 7, or late June or after the American election in November?

[kato]

Somewhere in the middle, I think.

There is the U.S. election to deal with, but there are also a lot of laid off packer workers down there. There is also a lot of pressure on the States from other countries to open up to us. If their beef is so safe, then why don't they take ours? In the eyes of the rest of the world, we and the Americans are one beef market.

It'll be a quiet move on the American side. No publicity. On a Friday, after the markets are closed. Under the radar, so to speak. Then some other market will open up to them, and that'll be the hot news item and we will be forgotten in the excitement.

That's my guess...if I really knew for sure then I would be a millionaire.

[frustrated1]

I'd like to think it would be soon(summer). I'm sure it won't be to everything at once, maybe even a couple years on older stuff. One thing is certain, it won't be until the U.S. is good and ready and it helps thier bottom line. As kato pointed out the world looks at us as one market and it must bug them something fierce to be tied to us in a world lite but that may help us. Although, it seems the attitude portrayed is you will buy our beef under our terms.

As far as the laid off workers.It's unfortunate they live in one of the northern states. Seems to me there are about half a dozen states get treated the same as western canada. They're there and we need the water, etc. but the other 40 rule the roost. They may get some lip service but do they have any clout?

Haven't seen any reports of Ralph causing grief. Still rather have him down there trying than when we had the cretan beaking off about the U.S. economy and calling them names.

[frustrated1]

oops. was supposed to say 40 plus states. not sure if states like alaska or hawaii have any impact or concern either way on the issue.

[greybeard]

CDN border closure hurts packers

Closure of the border to Canadian cattle imports continues to hurt packers financially. The absence of Canadian fed cattle and cull cows coincides with tighter than expected supplies of both categories in the U.S. The result is more reduced operating hours at slaughter plants and worker layoffs. Third largest beef processor Swift & Company last Monday laid off 84 people, 15% of the workforce at its Nampa, Idaho, plant. It cannot obtain enough animals to support full production, it says. The plant can kill 1100 head per day.

Shapiro Packing, Augusta, Ga., has laid off half its 600-person work force and reduced its daily kill to 450 per day. It can kill 1500 head per day. Other cow slaughterers are running well below capacity as well. There’s a possibility the border may reopen to live cattle imports by late May. It’s not likely to reopen any earlier than that, say observers. So packers face at least two more months of reduced fed and non-fed cattle supplies.

Swift’s Nampa plant kills a mix of fed and non-fed cattle. So it is doubly impacted by the closure. It has been taking every step possible to preserve jobs and has been operating on a reduced schedule for weeks, say general manager Doug Pageler. The whole industry has been operating at approximately a 12% lower level than the same period last year. A key factor is the inability of U.S. processors to access Canadian cattle, which have been priced at between $275 and $400 less per head than domestic cattle, he says.

Cow killers in most parts of the U.S. are operating at sharply reduced levels. Some are at only 50% of normal production while others are running only 3 or 4 days per week. Numbers appear tightest in the Southeast, hence Shapiro’s cutback. Kill data bear this out. Cow slaughter in the nine weeks to March 6 totaled 922,400 head, down 13% or 141,300 head from the 1,063,700 head for the same nine weeks last year. That’s 15,700 fewer cows slaughtered per week. It’s also an average of 102,488 cows per week, compared to an average of 114,811 cows per week for all of 2003.

One reason for the reduced kills is that cow slaughter in 2003 was unexpectedly higher than the year before. It totaled 6.085M head, compared to 5.758M head in 2002 and 5.775M head in 2001. 2003 had 53 weeks. But the total still indicates that processors handled a lot more U.S. cows after Canadian cow imports halted on May 20. The U.S. imported 1M slaughter cattle from Canada in 2002, 756,000 fed cattle and 319,000 cows and bulls. It imported 389,915 slaughter cattle Jan 1 to May 20 last year. This included 91,922 cows and 16,326 bulls.

Another reason is that overall cow numbers are down after another year of liquidation. Beef cow numbers on Jan 1 totaled 32.86M, down 0.4% from year earlier. Dairy cow numbers totaled 8.99M, down 2%. Herd rebuilding is still to begin in the U.S. So producers have not retained sufficient numbers of heifers to release older cull cows. In addition, the prospect of better grass conditions this spring has further held back cows.

Expect 500,000 Feeders From Canada

Canada is likely to export about 500,000 feeder cattle in the 12 months after the border opens. That’s what Canadian market watchers believe will be the number. It’s half the number that some U.S. analysts forecast (as reported in CBW, March 15, 2004). There will be two major factors to constrain feeder exports, say the Canadian sources. First, feed costs in western Canada are much cheaper than in the U.S. Alberta cattle feeders currently pay C$130-140 per tonne for barley. U.S. corn prices are more like C$170 per tonne, they say. Putting it another way, costs of gain in Canada are C$60-100 per head cheaper than in the U.S.

Not everyone in Canada is broke, says one source. Feeding will take place where feeding is cheap. There will be many more fed cattle than feeders going south, he says. He predicts a record number over the first 12 months the border is open, with the most occurring from August through February 2005. Numbers will likely average 15,000 head per week (780,000 over 12 months), with less until August and more after that, he says.

The second factor is lack of trucking capacity. It has been seriously reduced since May 20 last year, says Dennis Laycraft, executive vp of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Assn. This will limit the number of cattle overall going south until capacity is rebuilt, he says.

As for when the border might reopen, the comment period on USDA’s rule ends April 7. USDA might take a minimum two weeks to complete a final rule. It will take another 2-4 weeks for inter-agency approval. So the border might reopen on May 20, say some observers. That would be exactly one year since USDA closed the border after Canada announced its first home grown BSE case.

Article: CattleBuyersWeekly.com

This was posted domn on RanchersNet
Made the RCALF boys blow a little steam .

[rsomer]

greybeard: Interesting article. I have bravely forecast in other threads that there will be at least an announcement that the border will open by May 20. I think May 20 is an important date and something will happen by then. Chris Mills is talking summer, Ron DeHaven has said summer. I expect that volumes of fat cattle destined for slaughter will cross the border before the end of June. There is a reasonable possibility that a token load or two of fat steers will cross by May 20. I remain unconvinced that feeders will be allowed across at least for a year although feeder prices would be expected to improve with the announcement that the border will be opening. I see boneless cuts of beef from OTM cows being traded south as well but no live cows. Of course another BSE cow in either country will cause a delay but not for long this time.