Consider this

[max]

Rsomer, just curious but don't you think the difference in the Canadian vs the US dollar will limit the number of american calves that will be bought up by the Alberta feedlots. I am fearful of the opposite, that the US will be up here when the border opens and use their definate dollar advantage to swallow up the majority of our weaned calves. Where does that leave our feeding industry? Do the big get biggger and the small disappear? Do the feedlots start to own cows to secure a supply of of calves? Then where does that leave the cow/calf man?

My opinion thats why the feeders recieved the lions share of the support money in order the boost their equity to be able to better compete with the US feeders trying to swallow up our cattle this fall. Long term viability, who knows. Your thoughts.

[kato]

The dollar will be a big factor in what happens next. There may not be as many American calves bought up here, but I'll bet there will be a lot custom fed. Just think, the feedlots are very empty, they say they have no money, and the price of feed in the States is in the process of going up. That makes feeding cattle here very cheap. Custom feeding makes you less reliant on equity and bankers.

I think the bigger feedlots will become custom feeders for American interests, and own less calves than ever before. They will be in the pockets of the Alberta/American packers, and will become an industry to itself.

In Manitoba, I would expect there will be more farmers finishing their own calves, and shipping them south as fats, rather than even bothering with Alberta. Alberta doesn't want to bother with us now anyway. We have a market down east too, to a certain extent.

As for a cow-calf guy in Alberta, I really don't know what to think. Maybe a bunch of small to mid size feedlots will come forward and get a market going there. It may be better in the long run for all of us. Leave the big boys alone, and develop our own industry. More small packers serving a more diverse market place.

Hey...here's a thought.. maybe develop a packing industry that's small enough and committed to quality so that it can actually produce beef that's been hung for a proper amount of time and show the consumers what real beef tastes like.

The future is only as bright as we want to make it.

[greybeard]

Kato : you promised to report on your results from some calves at auction .How did that go? I have some I want to send before the yard breaks up.I hate chasing cattle in muddy pens.

[greybeard]

Right on with that hanging beef scenerio kato. I still don't know how grading beef works when it comes to exports. I suspect that Canadian graded boxed beef means nothing to Americans and will never be considered choice. I suspect that the live fats, which have not been moving in a year, are graded as they are killed in the states. Either way. Our American owned, Canadian packers decided that volume and speed made hanging beef negative to their cash flow. What a great opportunity for some of these smaller plants to step in and give the consumer a much nicer product with one change to their processing system. of course the costs will be a bit higher, however, aged beef is, and always has been, superior, and I beleive the consumer will support that superiority with a bit higher price. I always thought that the consumer was always right!

[ALICIA]

Bottom line is (if the people that raise the calves go, then every body goes.)

[rsomer]

Max: Re the dollar, I don’t think the stronger dollar will make any difference to the competitiveness of feedlots located either in the U.S. or Canada assuming the border is open to trade.

I agree with your assessment of why the feedlots received the lions share of the support money to the point that our governments wanted to ensure Canada had a viable feedlot sector.

At this time I do not see our feeders being allowed into the U.S. right away when the border opens. I suspect that only animals destined for slaughter will cross. Just my guess, based on what Canada did after the Washington Holstein. Canada allowed U.S. cattle destined for slaughter to enter our country after the Washington Holstein in December while Canada blocked entry to other cattle. I see the Americans taking the same stance with Canadian cattle. There are a lot of politics on both sides of the border that would support a restriction on the movement of feeder calves.

I think kato’s vision of what might happen this fall to be reasonable.

There is a packing plant proposed for Hanna, Alberta that will do just what is being discussed here. Carcasses will hang for 21 days and the emphasis is on quality rather than quantity.

I don’t know that the "customer is always right" approach is the path to success. It would be easy to beat Tyson Foods and Cargill by surpassing the customers quality expectations. It is just possible that success in the beef industry might be more market control than quality control.

[kato]

greybeard.. Nine steers averaged 847 lb. and brought 85.78 average. They ranged between 810 and 925 pounds and the prices were between $83.50 and $88.00 per hundred. They were Charolais and Char X Limo in good shape, with wide backs. Most ended up in Quebec.

Doesn't sound too bad, as long as you don't look up their brothers from last year and see they sold for about $1.18 per pound!

[PureCountry]

I agree Rsomer, market control is the key to their chokehold. On another note, where you guys mentioned feeders/packers owning cows to ensure a calf supply, tell me what you think about this. In talking with some producers about a local packing plant, I suggested shareholder contracts to ensure the plant would have a minimum supply of animals. So, in turn, why can't feeders/packers have contracts with producers. Why don't we see Co-op style enterprises with the shareholders in control of everything from pasture to plate?
The only reason I can see, is that in all honesty, the majority of us are not happy to 'just get a decent price'. Everybody wants more. If they sold their calves for $650 this year, they want $750 next year, and so on. It would be great - in some respects - if all producers could accept a price for their calves and be happy. But then just imagine how boring Coffee Row would be. "So Hank, wud'ya get fer yer calves?"..."Six-fifty"..."Hey, that's what I got! What'd you get Fred?"..."Six-fifty"..."Ooo-kay.Bill?"..."Six-fifty"
In theory it might work, but I think we need our sense of free enterprise and independence too much.

[greybeard]

Thanks Kato. At this point I think that looks pretty good. A lot better than 6 weeks ago when they were predicting 35 cents. Add your $80 for another 10 cents.

[blackjack]

In Ponoka today, the auction mart had over 5000 head. Looked like prices were off 8 cents / hundred weight . 900 lb steers were around 80 cents , fat market has lost steam.

[magpie]

Exactly Kato, no hd to hd with large packers, cater to consumer needs, use ultra sound or the leptin gene and it’s three cat orgies as stated in nerves post. I believe the leptin gene has some merit in it. This explains why in the wild game you can have some animals that are very tough and some rather tender no matter what the age. Have the beef aged to perfection ,test it for bse, do some innovative packaging and promotion that implies that it’s directly from producers. Place a premium as we are adding value, do the taste tests like in some markets and show them the real thing as mentioned by Kato. Not only will this open a market here at home but also abroad, I can see Japan interested in this approach, why do you think the USDA is blocking the creek stone packer in going ahead with their proposal, it’s a threat to the large packing plants and their shareholders profits. Providing this type of beef has a more hands on effect which large scale does not provide. You see cargill setting up in Brazil as they need to continue in volume which Brazil can provide. The large packers are here to stay and it’s not like they are not producing a quality product, they are. All I’m trying to point out is that there is a growing group of consumers that want a hands on superior grade of beef that I think producers could provide that volume packers can not access.

[nerves]

Magpie and Kato I think have the right idea. This is why we quit raising bulls. It is alot easier to sell quality meat, with the use of technolgy and aging we have been doing 21 days, it makes the beef busines a whole lot brighter. In another thread it was talked about do what you do best. Only thing is we are good at raising the product but hopeless at marketing (so we think). Most of the urban population are more than interested to talk to you about your animals than you realize. We have been selling animals for about a month and have got rid of all the cull cows and bulls and got back Pre BSE prices.(30 head) Thease people have phoned us telling use the meat tastes differnt smells differnt and they love it. So this all happened from ads in the news paper. We had another brain storm and are going to try something else to get rid of the calves we kept, will let you know later on how it pans out. We are tired of other people telling us what our beef is worth we know what we have invested and price accordingly.(which is also cheaper than the stores) So who is making the big bucks talk to the people marketing your meat they set the prices they know their costs. There is also alot the permits and regulations to wade through but once you figure it is clear sailing, it took us about 2 months to get it all in place. We are now ready to do pasture to plate and are excited for the first time in years to be doing what we love to do and make a living at it. Think outside the box there are companies out their sucking us dry and because we let them get out of the rut and fight back. (now I will get off my soap box).