different thoughts

[cswilson]

Greybeard we actually switched to fall calving first after visiting some operations that were doing that successfully-however to calve in the fall you have to be breeding cows in November(hunting season) so we switched things back to breeding in August. By then most of my A.I. jobs are done and my kids(best A.I. crew going) are home from school. As to number of cows to be pofitable that is a tough one-I know that by grass calving it would be no trouble to calve 500 head with just family help. We spend maybe two hours a day riding our cows and thats just to do some tagging and weighing bull prospects. I know no matter what I say the number crunchers will jump all over me-but if you do away with the iron,barns,and equipment I think you could have a good living with 200 cows. Its all a matter of needs and wants-most ranchers convince themselves they need something when in reality they just want it. For example a neighbor bought a new quad to fix fence with $8,000 investment. I hired two guys for a day or so for $250 and accomplished the same thing. I'm very lucky to have some real top ranchers and businessmen to visit with and share ideas.

[nerves]

cswilson I agree with you 100% that fall calving is trouble free, and that the calves usally hit a premium market in the spring, We used to do some years ago calve half in spring and half in fall you get excellnt use out of your breeding bulls. But you also need good shelter and most winters a good supply of straw or shavings. The reason we quit doing it was that one year we had a wind from the south and it lasted for a week temperatures dropped to -70 with the wind chill. We lost about 30 of our best milking cows to froze bags and teats that froze and developed mastitis. It is not fun milking and treating 30 cows every day and trying to convince them not to kick the crap out of thier calves. This went for a least a week before we got things settled down, we lost a large part of the top end of the herd that time and swore we would never do that again. I don"t remember it being that cold since that one time it was a long time back. But you can always get caught and when you do it"s messy.

[cowman]

cswilson: I won't jump all over your numbers when you say you could have a good living with 200 cows, but I will ask you if you have the assets needed to run 200 cows, do you think that money could make you a good living invested in a good mutual investment fund? Perhaps better than the 200 cows?
A quick rough example: 5 acres/cow X$1000= $5000 plus $1000 for the cow works out to $6000/cow X 200= $1.2 million. And that does not include anything else! 5% of $1.2 million is $60,000! That isn't such a bad deal? And you can spend that money on yourself not having to worry about buying a tractor or something? Why in fact you could spend your time pursuing other interests, whether that be a job or a life of leasure?

[cowman]

A life of leisure Hey!
Just what the hell are you doing up every morning at 6:00 a.m. cowman.
You even picked a nickname to match the love of your life. Having cows is great; and you might as well admit it.
Profit or no profit, a cow calf operation is an interesting, ever changing, challenging, and ultimately satisfying career.
If we get bored, we have lots of opportunity for change.
We don't have to worry about the bottom line, cause there isn't one.
There is always next years calf crop to look forward to (cause you know darn well you will never completly quit.
And the people involved, whether Agriville folks, neighbors, or other cowmen and cowwomen, are always there to help, or correct you when you get carried away.

[cswilson]

Well to start with were running 4 ac/cow of 300/ac land. In the case of the $1,000 an acre stuff the cows supported the land investment while it appreciated to that level it wasn't bought at that price to run cattle on. I see just in my kids case their small herds of cows make them a steadier return than their mutual funds. I still think a properly run cowherd with a little luck can generate a living. There is no price for quality of life also-I've done pretty much what i want all my life-there's a lot of stockbrokers that wish they had ranches not the other way around.

[cowman]

rpkaiser: Don't talk like that! I'm having a hard enough time making my decisions!
But you are correct when you talk about the "addiction" to cows! Sometimes I think it is a curse that us farmers have...this compulsion to raise crops and animals! Probably why we keep doing it when the money is so poor? Sort of like a crack addict or a problem gambler or something? Maybe we all need a good trip to a farmers dry out center or something?
As for being up so early...I've always been an early riser, a morning person. Believe me I can be fairly lazy if I get a chance! Unfortunately my son likes to keep me hopping and toiling away like a beaver(not always successful!). I tend to have a million things on the go all the time and never enough time to do them! And I have a real problem with not chasing new ideas. The latest is 1000 berry trees and a joint venture deal on a small market garden/greenhouse! Maybe a small produce strore in the future! So I guess I have no one to blame but myself if I don't live a life of leisure? Come to think of it I'd probably go nuts lazing about too much!
As far as the stockbroker wanting to ranch...well maybe until he saw the net income! Then he might not be so keen?
And how do you know you might not want to be a stockbroker? The big bucks, the Mercedes sports car, the luxury condo? Too bad we couldn't try it for a year or so?

[cakadu]

I think we need to be really careful about confusing standard of living with quality of life. Watching my lambs play at dusk is worth far more to me than 10 Mercedes sitting in the yard or the mansion on the hill would ever be.

The only thing I "yearn" for is to have things paid off before I get too old. All the rest of it is immaterial to me. I've never wanted the headache of worrying about someone bashing my car door in the parking lot or whether the towels matched the curtains in the bathroom.

Becoming a "rat in the race" has never appealed to me.

There aren't too many investments that are bringing in steady high returns and the thought of having to open the stock report every day to see if 10 years growth is wiped out in seconds does not appeal to me other.

I think it was said best in Gone with the Wind, when Mr. O'Hara talked about the value in the land.

[bombay_43]

“The thought of turning on the radio, to hear that 25 years growth, has been wiped out by a single case of BSE, does not appeal to many either!” I will always remember May 20, and the way we all felt when our net worth dropped to.......“no markets open”, “unknown how long the slump will last”, “possible mass slaughter of culled cows”, “borders to remain closed for up to 7 years”.

The uncertainty was and is, too hard to take!

The cattle industry has changed, and it continues to change. To believe that this change is over, is just us farmers with our endless optimism, and wishful thinking.

I don’t think there is any more certainty in your investment on the farm, than there is in the stock markets. Perhaps even less.

Those of us who search for reasons, and ways, to remain on our farms, is because we love what we are doing. Plain and simple!

[cswilson]

Really has anyone been wipedout yet-yoour loss isn't taken till you sell your product-right now most people are holding rather than folding-there have been positives to this whole BSE thing-alot more focus on costs,more creative marketing etc. The way I see it all the monies in the middle of the table we might as well ride it out. Remember tough times don't last tough people do.

[grassfarmer]

That's right cswilson, let's not all get mired down in pessimism - the future is what you make it.

Bombay - I say agriculture is a far safer investment - they aren't making land anymore and the farmer, by harvesting solar power through his crops and animals, is the ONLY person on this planet who is doing something sustainable. All the whizz kids in the stockmarket, computers and scrapbooking e-busineses could be done without tomorrow. We are irreplaceable. That always gives me confidence in what I do.

[cakadu]

You're right grassfarmer. Look at how quickly all those .dotcom companies fell by the wayside after millions of dollars had been invested in them by venture capitalists and people wanting to get rich quick.

I don't think there is any one way for an individual to get rich - it is what you make it. There is an old saying - Your life is what your thoughts make it.

They may not be readily apparent yet, but there is a silver lining in all of this. I am a firm believer in things happening for a reason - we might not know what that reason is at the time, but we do eventually realize what it was.

Many have chosen to hang on and hopefully they can make it. We moved our lambing season to start late April early May this year for several reasons - (1) we didn't want to lamb in the cold and thank goodness we didn't this year because January was brutal, (2) lambing in January and February would have meant that much more feed to buy to sustain the last 6 to 8 weeks gestation plus feed all those newborns and (3) to see where the market is going to end up.

We're no different than most, we're hanging on because we are hoping for a brighter future. With any luck and some good management decisions, we will weather this storm.

[cowman]

Well, I guess I'm hanging too, but for different reasons...hoping the darn price will rise enough so I can bail without losing my shirt!
And actually a whole lot of people have lost big time...like everyone who sold his yearlings this spring? I don't really care how you did the math you never made no money feeding calves this winter!
And the fact remains that this will be the year when the chickens come home to roost? Time to pay up for all the losses of the last year?
How many people have prepared themselves with a plan for survival? How about throwing in a few scenarios that could happen? Like drought? Or maybe another Mad Cow? Or our basic inputs skyrocketing? Not very nice thoughts but extremely possible?
If you don't have a plan then you will have an extremely difficult time coping when things go wrong?
Now perhaps your plan might involve cashing in the old RRSPs or subsidizing the cattle with other income or maybe getting out there and selling your beef on the niche markets. And that is fine if you love them so much you can't live without them! We all do strange things for the ones we love!

[cswilson]

Of course were all thinking of the different scenarios but if you constantly plan for armgeddon you won't even get out of bed in the morning-as for profits made on calves the guys who dumped on that 60 cent market definately lost but what about the guys who sold at 1.05 plus. One of my larger A.I. customers sold 475 yearlings at 750 At 1.04 thats $330 a head more than he'd been bid a month before. A pessimist would of dumped at 60 cents-lets face it when things are at the bottom up is the only way their going. Not a whole lot different than 1996-grass cattle were in the tank but if you bought them you were paid very well.

[cowman]

That is true their was a price spike where people made some money. And in reality prices at times last fall were fair. But you had to be lucky! Up one week down the next up the next and back down. Pretty hard to guess?
Now suppose the border opens and it rains like crazy...why I'll look like a genius! On the other hand if the border stays closed and it gets dry I'll look like an idiot! Thus is modern management? Maybe better to take your money down to Vegas and bet the roulette wheel?

[cswilson]

Cowman I'm sitting on and calving out 190 heifers that I didn't get sold lol. Maybe I better get fittted for that dunce cap-I wonder some days lol.