Canadian Dollar: An opinion

[errolanderson]

The Cdn dollar appears to have topped out technically @ 83 cents U.S. Strength in crude oil has been the key support, but WTI crude oil may experience heavy headwinds @ $75 per barrel. Support for WTI lies @ $50 per barrel (IMO). Currently, the loonie has support @ 80 cents.

The key is crude oil. If the rally oil continues, the loonie will continue to defy Canada’s crippling economic debt load. If crude breaks, the stock market is apt to break along side. A nasty domino impact possible pulling the loonie lower.

The U.S. dollar could rise and gold prices drop again as inflation concerns diminish.

Global commodities are now breaking lower in my opinion. China is attempting to talk commodity prices down, with some success. Should the loonie break 80 cents, a move toward 78 1/2 cents is possible. Again, an opinion . . . .

[DaneG]

No matter which direction the markets/economy travels I believe it will be tough sledding for quite sometime.

[errolanderson]

No matter which direction the markets/economy travels I believe it will be tough sledding for quite sometime.

Total agree, yet investors have never been so complacent. The VIX volatility index is quite oversold.

Personally feel the U.S. dollar will stage a recovery this summer. Gold recovery struggling despite rising inflation near-term, a warning sign. The loonie could feel slippage from a general commodity downdraft. Oil rally still in-place, but come fall? Hot housing market at-high-risk. My two-bits . . . .

[errolanderson]

Global commodity prices appear increasingly under incoming selling pressure. Inflation poster child ‘lumber’ now in-collapse’. Crude oil showing signs of breaking. BOC reining in money printing, but holding key lending rate @ 0.25 percent. Global economies again appear slowing.

Bottomline . . . the Cdn dollar may remain under selling pressure. Key support may be as low as 78 cents U.S. suggesting a full 5 cent pullback from recent highs might be possible.

[OfericSchim]

No matter which direction the markets/economy travels I believe it will be tough sledding for quite sometime.

U right

[errolanderson]

Loonie broke support of 78 cents U.S. this week.

Weekly chart suggests next key support of 76.50 cents. Major support seen @ 75 cents (IMO), but currencies unpredictable.

Old resistance lines are seen as new support lines on the way down. Global commodity price pressure triggering fallout.

[farming101]

Forex CAD lowest close in 51 weeks. .7749

[errolanderson]

Forex CAD lowest close in 51 weeks. .7749

Loonie remains on the defensive. USD appears well supported.

Crude oil is a tough call, but a retest toward $60 per barrel WTI or possibly even lower in 2022 as China demand slows is not bullish the loonie. Energies in for a struggle (IMO) heading toward the spring market. Diesel prices should weaken further (famous last words).

Realize this opinion doesn’t much match the internet (banker) talk . . . .

[woodland]

Loonie remains on the defensive. USD appears well supported.

Crude oil is a tough call, but a retest toward $60 per barrel WTI or possibly even lower in 2022 as China demand slows is not bullish the loonie. Energies in for a struggle (IMO) heading toward the spring market. Diesel prices should weaken further (famous last words).

Realize this opinion doesn’t much match the internet (banker) talk . . . .

Lower diesel prices………. Sign me up

$75 crude doesn’t equate to the crazy prices of today. Some middleman is sure having a merry Christmas

[errolanderson]

Bank of Canada NOT hiking rates (announced Jan 26th) . . . key lending rate still holding @ 0.25%.

This should be bearish the loonie. Crude oil overbought (IMO). March Cdn support now seen @ 78 cents U.S.