cull cows

[blackjack]

Have a few culls to go to market between now and the end of June. Does anyone see much price change or is it going to hold steady?

[rsomer]

On the optimistic side it is not unreasonable to expect the border to open by the end of June and that live calves and at least the beef from over 30 month old animals will be entering the U.S.

Market cow prices in the Northern Plains (U.S.)are averaging 15 to 20 percent higher than at this same time one year ago and 25 to 30 percent higher than the five year average.

After the discovery of BSE in December, expectations were that U.S. slaughter cow prices could fall drastically early in 2004. However, on a weekly average basis, slaughter cow prices in January and February averaged 24 percent or $9.44 per cwt. above 2003’s. Compared to the prior five-year average ($37.42 per cwt.), lean cow prices for the first two months of 2004 were up 29 percent. Lean slaughter cow prices should remain relatively strong in the coming months in the U.S.

Cows are still bringing about 45-48 cents a pound U.S. in the States. That works out to 60 cents a pound here if the border were to open before you have to sell your culls. The last market report I have shows Alberta D1,D2 cows worth 29-33 cents a pound. That is still quite a discount to the U.S.

There is always the concern that another BSE positive will be found in North America, much less Canada. Still there could be an opportunity for anyone who wants to take a chance and feed cull cows aiming for a June, July market. If the border were to open cull cows could jump in price over night almost $300-400 a head.

If it doesn't rain drought concerns will weigh on the market.

[blackjack]

rsomer...I agree that prices may be quite a bit better on culls if the live cattle are allowed across the border.But if we do not receive a good rain in the next week the cows will have to go quicker than planned.