Is this right?

[cowman]

I read on an American site that the R-calf injunction is temporary but the same judge will decide in May whether it becomes permanent? If he decides that a continued ban should be in place then we are looking at 6-12 months before it can be removed? Is this right? I believe the USDA has said late summer now before they can process all the info from the comment period? What is late summer? August maybe September?
Of course by then the American electioneering will be in full swing and it is unlikely that Bush would be dumb enough to open the border, especially if he is in a dogfight? I suspect as the American soldiers continue to come home in body bags, Bush will be fighting for his political life?
What happens if Kerry wins? He has said very clearly he has absolutely no intention of ever opening the border.

[Willowcreek]

Cowman- Since we are making predictions I will throw my 2 cents worth in. In May Judge Cebull will make the order a permanent injunction. Then it will be appealed to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals based in California. This court is unpredictable, but very liberal so if I had to bet I'd bet they uphold the Judges ruling. It would then be appealed to the Supreme Court which could take years. Their are some shortcuts that could come about, but it would take a strong stance by the Bush administration to get them and I don't think they can take the heat right now. Really as a politician he's in a perfect spot- say he's for the border opening, but keep it closed and blame it on the courts.

I agree with you- I don't think we'll see any change in this ruling before November.

[kato]

They've made a deal to settle up with Japan in late summer. They won't say when, just late summer. Japan is having an election in July, and won't want to do anything just before that either. They may be going to tie it together.

How come our country is the only one that isn't influenced by an upcoming election? Could it be that out here we have no influence on an election? MMM....

I sure hope not.

Then again, we've got time to get testing for export up and running by then. I sure wish our politicians would at least use that as a bargaining chip, instead of talking baseball and hockey.

Just being nice to GWB ain't going to help. We'll just get walked on. It's going to take more than a friendly visit.

I for one am tired of being taken for granted.

[whiteface]

Won't happen. Border opening up I mean. And if it does, it a bonus. Like cowman said about expecting the worst, in this case I would urge all of us to believe it. I've been absolutly preaching my head off and hopefully rather than making all of you nuts my intention is to stop the whole "hope the border opens bullony." How the hell long would any of you stay in an abusive relationship before you decided to pair up with someone who was nice to you???!!! Well, you're in one now. Sorry about our luck, but I have Japaneese relatives and my first hand experience with them as a group is that they absolutly will not budge with their request for blanket testing. They're not violent and pushy like so many Americans, they've simply asked nicely for a product and will not give in to the US pressure and bullying to accept less than 100% testing. The Americans are arrogant, they will hear nothing more or less than they want to believe and while they "fight it out" we in Canada will suffer...maybe indefinatly. Forget sucuumming to "we may be exporting beef to Japan by summer..." If the states doesn't test, Japan won't be, I promise. All that will happen, is we will have lost more time in hope mode, more of us will have simply bailed from this wonderful business and we won't be one inch closer to a solution than we are now. If we do something ourselves not only will we manage to save our own lives, we may very well earn some dignity and respect for having taken care of ourselves rather than whined like a bunch of farmers. Perhaps in the process we will have even taken over the wheel from the United States as an entreprenurial beef export country. Really, does't that sound better than trying to decode all the political bullshit. We're starting to sound like some girl who invites her girlfriends over when her boyfriend leaves a message on the answering machine and they all try and discern what he "really meant by that," "well how does he sound, what do you think he really means." He's a guy, he means exactly what he says but girls just don't want to hear it or try to read into it more than it is. We need to stop being the United States and Japans girls and hear what they're saying. They don't care about whether or not we "call back" so we take responsibility for our own lives and start looking at how we're going to process our own meat and then who we will sell it to, rather than crying in their ears about, "but I love you! please stay with me..."
I know I'm screaming an extreme scenario at all of you but I don't know what it's going to take to get us all in Canada to realize that WE are the only ones who give a shit about what happens to us and WE are the only ones who can do anything about OUR situation.

[cakadu]

There is an election coming up in Japan in June, we will likely have one in June ourselves and old Dubya is having one in November. Is it likely that anything will happen before at least June - probably not - and we're likely looking at after the American election before we see the border opening, particularly in light of the USDA needing more time to go through the comments.

I'm not even sure that we could be called being taken for granted - aren't we more like the poor relation who takes whatever falls from the rich uncle's table?

Bush is in for the fight of his political career (such as it is). I may not totally agree with the American voting system, but at least one vote really can make a difference down there.

Who is going to blink first - the Americans or the Japanese? In the meantime, what can and should Canada be doing to put itself into a better position and be less reliant on one country for it's exports?

Not only do we have this problem, but here on the Prairies - more particularly here in west Central Alberta - we are faced with the prospect of yet another drought. We have about 20 to 25% more cows that are going to need pasture/grazing this coming year. Forage lands are already depleted due to the previous years of drought and/or grasshoppers. The forecasts for both of those are grim to say the least. We are in desperate need of some place to be able to graze these animals or in the alternative feed them with hay etc.

If there was ever a time to learn the principles of grazing management, I would say the time has never been better. Pretty hard to undertake grazing management given the current conditions, but I think it prudent that we start.

[grassfarmer]

I hope all you guys are wrong and the border does open but Willowcreeks scenario sounds plausable to me.
In the UK we faced the same problem - after the BSE numbers had peaked and declined the European Union scientists ruled it was safe to export UK boned out beef from animals under 30 months. France said no way were they accepting that ruling. They appealed it at least
twice to different levels of European courts which took over three years. Eventually the European Union insisted the French accept the rulings or face massive fines. After appealing that decision they were two months into racking up daily fines before they finally agreed to lift their ban. Of course at this point the European Union decided not to actually collect the fines owed. So business is back to normal - well not really - the French still won't buy any beef from the UK but that is the decision of the importers not the Government.
It's a hard task dealing with protectionist countries and neither Japan or the USA will be any different than the French.

[rsomer]

I think those that say the border is not opening soon are overlooking some very important points.

The President of the United States of American has said publicly that trade in live cattle is good for the nation. We should not underestimate the importance of that statement. GWB did not have to say that. He also said the U.S. is committed to science, that favours Canada’s position. The meeting with Bush and Martin would have to be viewed as very positive for live cattle trade resuming sooner rather than later.

There are a host of other positives for the border reopening. The U.S. realizes that the United States' trading partners "need to be treated in the way that the U.S. would want to be treated". Many U.S. interests are being hurt by the BSE crisis and the lack of live cattle trade with Canada. For instance U.S. packers that depend on live Canadian cattle are facing economic ruin unless they can access our live cattle very soon.

I have not been able to find where the USDA said late summer or any date for that matter. Ron de Haven said last February that it would be summer before live cattle was entering the U.S. but that could be June 21. It is Anne Veneman’s decision not Ron de Haven’s. I believe an announcement from the USDA would be expected in May. The USDA announcement in mid April allowing bone-in cuts had to be taken as a direction that the U.S. administration wants to see trade normalized.

It is no time for a Canadian to be commenting on just what Bush is dumb enough to do but there is no question in my mind that that the border will be open long before the November election. The best way to solve the issue of the border being an election issue is to have it open in May and that issue effectively disappears off of the U.S. political radar screen before November.

The USDA can announce their rule on allowing Canadian live cattle any time now. I would expect the USDA will not want to see a Montana judge making international policy by deciding the R-Calf injunction. The best way to prevent that from happening is to announce the rule on live cattle imports before May 11 when the R-Calf action was to be heard. Right from the start I saw the possibility that the R-Calf action could possibly move the opening of the border up rather than set it back.

The probability of Martin calling an election in the next week is very high. What could be better for the Liberals than to have the border open during a federal election. Remember Martin’s commitment to the west? Look for it to happen. Bush commented that he looked to work with Martin in the future. Again he did not have to say that, those are not just idle words. The U.S. is going to open the border soon.

[whiteface]

rsomer, i would be so happy if you were right, you can imagine how happy everyone would be. I so hope you are the prophet of good and what you wrote is aguably valid and at the very least, inspirational, especially given that I, for one, think we don't have snowballs chance in hell with the border and must do something to be less dependant on these exports like cakadu said. Positive words are powerful and yours were a glimmer of hope for me tonight that I'm totally wrong and the border will open with no more stress on us worrying about what will we do if it doesn't. You better believe hay and pasture are going to turn into serious issues real soon if it doesn't rain, and I sure don't want to be caught with no solution to feeding all these cows if the border opening guys just get too caught up in their political fights to worry about us. Cattle eat everyday. Rsomer, I would just love you if you were right but what do we do if (God forbid) you're not.

[kato]

You have a lot of good points. I hope you're right. It would be like Christmas in May. Might even put up a tree and buy some presents. LOL

I don't think there ever was a doubt that R-Calf would try and disrupt the procedure. That's what they do. They think it's their duty. I also don't think they are out of ideas. Remember the countervail threat of a couple of weeks ago? I think that's their backup plan.

Who ever said life in the country was boring....

[cowman]

Rsomer:The fact is the judge is set to make his ruling on the bone in beef, May 11, so the opening of the border would have to happen within the next 9 days? If that unlikely scenario happened, how long would it take for R-calf to get another injunction against live cattle? I suspect about 2 hours?
No president walks all over the judiciary! Or he tries to do it at his own peril?
The American cattleman continues to have a strong and profitable market...in fact I believe prices are on the way up? The fact is the US cow/calf sector couldn't care one fig if the export market to Japan ever opens up...they never benifitted from that market anyway. America can eat all they can produce with no problem.
So now we have a booming cattle business in the USA. We have a president scrambling for every vote and we have a strong protectionist opposition knocking on the door of the Whitehouse...that leads me to believe no way is that border opening anytime soon? I hope you are right though!

[kato]

Did some checking last night.

This judge is the one who allowed a group of ranchers to intervene in the checkoff lawsuit.

Then he ruled the checkoff was constitutional. The ranchers lost their case.

We can hope he is the type to not make up his mind before hearing all the facts.

[skeeter]

The judges ruling applies to the fact USDA didn't follow proper procedure. They announced the opening to those beef products BEFORE the anouncement of the rule. He didn't rule on the safety of the beef, R-Calf did. If the USDA announces the full rule the judges injunction is null and void. R-Calf could try and stop the rule with another injunction but they would have to prove USDA didn't follow protocol. Notice that R-CAlf didn't stop the August rule on importing beef.