First Thing Monday Morning

[cowman]

Ianben: Sounds pretty dire to me, too! I suspect there were one hell of a lot of calves born this spring in western Canada....one hell of a lot of calves!
Unfortunately, I get ripped quite often here if I suggest anything like getting supply back in line with demand. A lot of people seem to think it is sacriligious to talk about killing off a bunch of worthless cows that nobody wants.
I actually hope they are completely right! But in the meantime I will have to do what I need to do(in my own cynical mind) to protect my interests. Maybe we'll be talking next year about what a complete idiot I was? If it happens I can live with that!

[cowman]

If it's all about supply and demand, why are we still exporting record supplies of boxed beef to the USA where demand is stronger than ever, even with export markets closed.
There is a short supply of beef in North America, due mainly to the Atkins diet, and the drought stricken states that have dropped numbers of breeding cows.
Exports to Asian markets are on the verge of exploding, except for BSE.
A smaller cow base in Canada would not hurt potential for future sales, however linking supply and demand to our current marketplace is off the mark.
We are not blaming the US packers for BSE,but they are, without a doubt, taking advantage of a stifled system by cashing in on a very lucrative, demanding, US market.

[rsomer]

Ianben: In North American we do not have a supply and demand problem. Consumer demand for beef in both the U.S and Canada are at record levels. I believe per capita consumption of beef rose last summer to levels not seen for something like 30 years. For Canadian producers, the problem is simply that the packing plant capacity to slaughter our live cattle is on the U.S. side while our cattle are on the Canadian side. The expectation is that the border will open in the near future but if it does not increasing packing plant capacity in Canada would solve the problem. There is absolutely no reason to decrease the cow herd. Canada has been exporting large quantities of boneless beef to the U.S. and Mexico as well since last September. The markets are there for our products. Our market is not functioning normally but that is because the closure of the U.S. border to live cattle created a bottleneck between the primary producer and the consumer which resulted in a few packing plants having no competition for available supplies of cattle so they are able to control the market to their advantage.

[ianben]

rysomer
In UK we where the same everthing was fine till one day 19/03/96 an BSE could be transmitted to humans.
Our cattle where going to Greece and France.
Those markets have never come back even though they also now have BSE and the borders are open. 12 months is a long time and people have to make other arrangments.

Your prices are low, The border is shut, You do not have the capasity for boxed beef, Japan will take time. You have no idea how much prime beef/cattle is out there. BSE finishes the cull cow trade for ever. Give the kids a burger and nvCJD

N America might not have a supply problem but for sure Canada has in the next year at least.

I did not say you should reduce cow numbers but try to rear only the best calves.
Get some idea on numbers and everyone cull 10/20% of poorest before they eat and cost.
Then a least if the border opens you will not bring US price in line with yours today.
Cos that what I see happening and the folks in US too.
The border will open when your prices rise to nearer US levels.