The Border Should Open Today

[ALICIA]

Did you not hear the new date is August 1st.

[cowman]

Now Alicia, you say August 1? But you forgot to put the year behind it? lol

[ALICIA]

There was no mention of a year.

[kato]

Friday the 21st sounds like a likely day.

I am quite sure that whenever it does open, it will be on a Friday after the markets close, so that the usual overreaction has time to settle down over the weekend. Maybe just before the American Memorial Day weekend?


It'll be timed to do the least damage to the prices. I hope so, because we all know what R-Calf will do if the price even drops a half a cent for five minutes after the border opens! LOL

[cowman]

Now kato, you know that the USDA promised R-calf 5 days notice before they make any kind of announcement? So defacto what happens is R-calfs lawyers will be ready and waiting the minute the announcement is made?
Quite frankly I just can't see the border opening...even a crack...until the election. Bush is getting hammered over the whole Iraq boondoggle and it isn't getting any better with the torture revalations? Don't forget Bush only got in last time by the skin of his teeth and a little bit of blatant cheating. If Kerry gets in I think you can count on the border staying shut for many years? Hopefully how I see it is totally wrong and the next few weeks we'll see the USDA attempt to get that border open?
The price of cull cows is once again completely in the tank. Here we sit after one year and in reality we are not a whole lot better off...I wonder what we'll be saying next year?

[rsomer]

cowman: you said "the USDA promised R-calf 5 days notice before they make any kind of announcement?"

See: http://www.usda.gov/Newsroom/0183b.pdf for the actual agreement involving the USDA and R-Calf USA.

The preliminary injunction granted R-Calf automatically expires 5 days after the USDA announces its final rule making action in the Federal Register. USDA will notify R-Calf on the day the final agency action is published, not before. I do not see where the USDA needs to provide R-Calf with advance notice of the final rule or what the final action will be.

Re the border opening. Yes there is an U.S. election coming up in November. For that matter there is probably an election coming up in Canada in June. The border opening is a much bigger issue in Canada than I believe it is in the U.S. The U.S. cattleman is not the only politically important voter affected if Bush opens the border. Lets not forget the politically important and influential meat packers who are facing closures and bankruptcy if they don’t have access to Canadian live cattle soon. The workers in those plants have a vote too. Cattle producers form only a small percentage of voters in the U.S. just like in Canada. The general public has many more votes and is more concerned with the economy than where their beef came from. Record high beef prices are not good for consumers, i.e. not good for the government.

There are conflicting pressures on the Bush administration. Pressure is coming from cattle producers like R-Calf to have the border remain closed while other interest groups lobby hard to have the border opened as soon as possible. Lets not forget the international pressure to have the U.S. show leadership in the BSE issue and the need for the U.S. to treat Canada like the U.S. needs to be treated by the rest of the world when they inevitably have a positive BSE cow that they cannot claim to have imported from Canada. As well, lets not forget the International Review Panel’s recommendation that the U.S. recognize the Washington Holstein not be viewed as a imported Canadian problem but instead a North American problem that needs a North American solution.

The BSE issue touches more than just U.S. beef producers and we need to consider the bigger picture when trying to predict when the border will open. Obviously if it were up to R-Calf the border would never reopen but they do not have the only say.