Beef Watch column

[cowman]

In the last issue of the "cattleman", in the Beef Watch column, it states that for every 20 cent raise in a bushel of barley the feedlot needs to lower feeder prices 4 cents. The Dec. futures show barley at $3.57 or a 57 cent increase? Does this mean steer calves should be 11.5 cents less than right now?
Anne Dunford has the average 500-600 lb. steer pegged at $105/cwt. Is it safe to assume then that we are looking at steer calf prices this fall in that low to mid nineties? And heifers in the low to mid eighties? Let's see that works out to about $517(presale) for a steer and $462 for a heifer calf?...Now what were our costs of production, again??
Also read Harlan Hughes column...he explains how the packers are really not screwing us at all but are doing everything in their power to help us out!

[PureCountry]

Cowman I don't think you need to analyze things so much. Who knows what the prices will be? Time will tell, and we have to deal with it when the time comes. I hope it's better than $476, but if it isn't it just means I won't make as much money as I did on last years' calves.

Ride out the lows and enjoy the highs.

[cowman]

Uh, Pure country did you make a lot of money on last years calves? If you did, then good for you! Maybe you have a magic formula?
I don't want to be a spoilsport but, really???? A close to 30% drop in calf prices last year can't be a good thing? Now maybe you never took that hit but just about all us dumb old "traditional" boys did?
I also don't want to discourage you, but I hope you can realize that you just aren't getting paid your fair share?...and that isn't right.

[blackjack]

cowman... you are definitely right on that one . We are in the year 2004 not 1974 . I'm a little like cowman in that why should we raise our product for peanuts when all our expenses keep rising? Do farmers not want to have the security like anyone else when they get older? I for one do not plan on relying on government to look after my wife and kids. If your cow-calf operations are making a profit in todays conditions I guess I'll buy some calves to background and start to liquidate my cowherd .

[grassfarmer]

Cowman,
Your figures confuse me when you state "A close to 30% drop in calf prices last year can't be a good thing? Now maybe you never took that hit but just about all us dumb old"traditional" boys did?"
In a post yesterday you claimed never to have sold a calf at less than $1.12/lb last year. I know you always talk of selling a heavy weight calf not 500lb ones. Do you mean to say you got over $1.60 in 2002, the year of the drought depressed calf prices, with heavyweight non-preconditioned calves? If so I think you shouldn't be retiring but instead teaching all us young upstarts how you do it.

[cswilson]

if your cryin' you should be buyin'. If calves are too cheap to sell buy some. There's been some good money made following that philosophy.Look in this year when yearlings were trading in the 60's there was dollars in them.