Depopulation

[magpie]

Last summer our ag ministers were talking about plan B. they stated that if the border hadn’t opened by such a time then perhaps massive depopulation of culls was warranted. Well I believe the packers would have none of that since they would loose to much profit, so they opened the border a crack allowing in boxed beef giving a ray of hope to producers and swaying government away from such a endeavor. Imagine all those pits full of lost profit to the packers. Then just before grilling season in the US they allow in bone in beef, how convenient for them only R Calf spoiled their plan. If I were a owner of a packing plant, larger kill numbers only means more profit at this point in time as demand is still strong. Why haven’t we heard a peep of plan B from our ministers. If there is a opening of the border by at least November we still have a problem that has been compounded. I do think a loss in numbers would be detrimental to their bottom line as they would have to compete for numbers now and in the future. I wonder how many producers would exit the industry voluntary if their was a package involved to allow them to leave with some dignity. We say we see so many older producers at the marts, would this be a option for some in the industry.

[jtietjen]

Well, I believe that this probably would be the only solution to sustain a viable beef industry. Nevertheless this decision seems not to be supported by the leaders in our industry. Most of them seem to look out for the interest of the big guys in our business, and those guys have a strong interest to escalate this situation. In a year or two it will be easy for companies with a lot of cash to pick up land and infrastructure. Tyson and Cargill will have full vertical integration and Brian Nilson will get his share too. Maybe they lease the land back to a few of us, that are to old, or for some other reason can’t get a job so we ca do the dirt work for them. This is capitalism like in a textbook.

[cowman]

You both read the situation correctly. If the government had put the money they blew to the packers into a massive cull things would be turning around by now. Unfortunately all they have done has delayed and compounded the problem. Maybe we can't really blame them...they probably are playing way out of their league? And the crying and wailing over shooting a bunch of useless cows wouldn't have been pretty in the media?
I doubt there will ever be a cull in the pit or mandatory universal testing. Lets face it somebody is making a pile of money out of this situation and those same people are the ones who call the shots in this country? Our elected governments are really just window dressing to keep the peasants believing they are in control. Meanwhile they continue to pass legislation that takes away more of our rights and freedoms and give more of our assets to the "ruling power elite"...their real masters?
You might want to read Gerry Spences book "Back to Slavery"...describes how the US has fallen so far from what the founders intended! And I would suggest so has Canada?

[kato]

Actually, I think we have come full circle. Many of our ancestors came to this country to escape exactly what is happening here now.

Is this an evolution of society? It seems to happen over and over again. In the past, it has usually led to some horrible event that breaks it down so it can start again.

[poorboy]

I think that depopulation is also the only answer that will be quick enough to help save the industry. If the gov't could purchase the cows, or offer some other sort of incentive to help farms dispose of the cows, then it will provide immediate help. Perhaps the beef from the cull could be shipped as food aid to some country that does not ordinarily purchase beef. This would help our world aid programs for people in need and help the beef industry. The meat would obviously need to be cured and canned to ship to most of these places.

This program should have happened last winter or fall so that the number of calves on the ground was reduced.

If the border should open, it would not take long to build a herd up again.

A lot of us would even get out if the gov't offered us a very fair price for our cows and paid it out over 5-7 years. I for one am in an area that is still in the middle of a severe drought and my pastures could use a rest. If cows were worth anything, I would normally be selling some now, just like previous droughts of 2000,2001,2002.

[rsomer]

It would be cheaper for government and better for the industry all around if government would provide 100% financing for producer owned packing plants rather than pay producers to depopulate.

[cswilson]

Packing plants for sure are probably the best idea but by the time they are up and running alot of producers will have exited the industry willingly or otherwise. That billion dollars would of disposed of 1.5 million cows at $700 each and would of pretty much solved our excess. It is draconian but really the only thing that would of solved this-right now this big cowherd on droughty pastures is pretty much a living breathing money pit. If we depopulate and border opens I guess we'll have to live with higher prices for our production for awhile something I think we can do. In retrospect we should of built these plants 5 or ten years ago but we didn't and I honestly think we can't get them up and running in time to help.

[rusty1]

I've said it before, but I think we are on the verg of going public with our plant ideas. I'll give you some points and would appreciate you're reaction.
1. We believe that share structure should be low enough so anybody who wants to participate can aford to do so. Hense the 2 lowest levels are
a) $250 every 6 months for $1000, or
b) $1,000 initial. If we get the job done you're $1000 will be converted to shares and membership.
2. We want all sectors involved from the a) pure bred industry, b) cow/calf, c) feedlot, and d) service sector.
3. We need grassroots representation from all 4 western provinces.
4. It will be a "Vertically Integrated Value Added" or "merrit based" grid specializing in premium cattle.
5. It will produce "Regionally Labled" and niche products including natural and hormone free beef.

We have our builders lined up, our business plan guys, and lots of marketing opportunities.

Are you ready to buy a $1000 commitment and sell 10 more to you're friends and neighboers?

[cswilson]

THey are all great and valid ideas-I just think they won't get done in time.A track hoe can dig a pit in a morning-if we want attention to our plight-bury a few thousand cows that will get peoples attention.

[rsomer]

cswilson: You have hit upon the crux of the matter when you say "A track hoe can dig a pit in a morning-if we want attention to our plight-bury a few thousand cows that will get peoples attention". We don’t want attention at least not that kind of attention. We got so much attention after May 20 that I could not watch the news or read a paper without seeing an article that our beef was not safe or that you would die a horrible death by eating beef. As an industry we were extremely fortunate to have kept our domestic consumers confidence in our product through all of that. We want to get governments attention, not the peoples attention. A public spectacle of burying perfectly good cows in front of the media is sure to send the message that our beef is a sick and disgusting product that should be thrown away. When depopulation was tried in Germany the consumer reaction was swift and negative. Producers are dreaming in Technicolor if they thing our consumers will react any differently.

Now if you were proposing to go down into the States and burn their cows and dump them in a pit because their herd is infected with BSE you might be talking. We need to bring this issue to the Americans, not the Canadians. But our Canadian industry does not need that kind of attention at home.

[cswilson]

Well I hate to say it but alot of farms and ranches will be in the pit while we wait for borders to open and plants to be built. It's not a food safety issue I'm getting at-it's a no market-no feed-no hope deal for alot of people. Face it the earliest we will see a new plant up and running is two years. Too late by any stretch of the imagination-don't you think the politicians would be getting a bit of prssure to do more if something like that happened.

[rusty1]

mrwilson - I know full well the despondency feeling. However, our research show us that we could be killing by the fall of 2005. And if everyone helps a little bit, we can start to take back our "birthright". History has many storyies to show that but you need a "populace movment" to make it happen. There is hope when we band together and realize how much we need each other. If we havn't figured that out yet then we havn't hurt bad enough yet.

[rsomer]

Cswilson: I agree. It really is as you say "not a food safety issue, it's a no market-no feed-no hope deal for a lot of people" We are really seeing that frustration and lack of hope boil to the surface. The challenge for producers is find solutions and ways to reach government without loosing the support of our consumers. We really need our consumers support and the support of the general public, who by the way are one and the same. Negative publicity like video of cows being dumped in the pit or someone dumping dead cows in front of the legislature or parliament does not help sell beef. It is gross and disgusting. It does not build sympathy or support for producers hard hit by BSE.

I for one cannot last until a packing plant gets built. I do think if we don’t start now then even more time will be lost but that is not going to save me. I will survive but I am going to get hit hard financially if the border does not open real soon. That said a massive cow cull is not going to help short term either. It would take a very long time before there was any positive impact on our markets at all, especially after the initial consumer backlash. If we reduce our herd size the U.S. will simply move in and replace those feeders with their own.

Solutions are really hard to come by. Perhaps the immediate benefit from getting busy with the packing plants is that it would certainly make the Americans sit up and take notice that they were going to loose their North West packers, with the resulting impacts on the U.S. economy and workers. U.S. news coverage of Canadians slaughtering our cows and dumping them in a pit would not be helpful to seeing the U.S. accept more of our beef.

[cowman]

With all due respect rsomner, the fact is that border is "unlikely to open?" Yes, killing cows in a pit is ugly, and I doubt our lily livered governments would ever go for it. But the fact is cows get shot in the head everyday and that is the beef industry! Call it reality TV in a big way! I believe the Canadian consumer needs to be dragged into the real world?
The bottom line is we need to realize that things have changed? We have NO real export markets and we won't for the fore seeable future? So what can you do? The Canadian consumer hasn't backed away from beef...in fact prices are right up there? Supply that market and too hell with the rest! Don't forget less than twenty years ago we were a net importer of beef!
We need to get real on this issue? There will be NO test! I've got to acknowledge the valiant effort of people who think that is an option...but quite frankly it just ain't going to happen!
So to get our supply in balance with the demand, what do we have to do? Kill one third of the cows! No other really sustainable option? That is just how it is.
We either kill them now or they will eventually starve anyway. The cow business isn't necesaarily very pretty, or politically correct?

[rusty1]

rsomer - We believe that another real reason to get involved in a producer owned packing plant (subject to a sound plan) is this. If a sufficient number of producers and stakeholders sing up, put their $250 or $ 1000 down and become members, say lets dream a little, maybe we garner 60,000 members from the western provinces. We would be a stronger lobbey to sit in the halls of govt. than we currently have. They have admitted that (govt,) there have been significant $ put in private industry in the past. And they were burnt with Peter Puck and all the little fractious groups that have bent the ear of our current govt. in the last 12 months have only selfishly protected their own turf and now our govt. is confused. Therefore we need one focused producer group on a mission to deal at least with one significant issue and large enough to be noticed. They would not bde able to ignore a group of 50,000 to 100,000 citizens on a mission.
One might argue that ABP is that group. Let's remind ourselves of how many producers actually voted in that process.