Numbers VS Common Sense

[The Don]

I watched the December 8, 2022 youtube video from Manitoba Ag.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joGvSabI7Pg&t=1305s
The first presentation appears to be factual and shows the need for proper nutrition for the cattle.
The second presentation is in my opinion disinformation. I do not use corn silage on my operation. The presentation on cost of production lists corn silage as $45.00 / ton or about two cents a pound. That is about half of what it is actually worth. I thought that corn silage was based on 10 to 12 times corn price. If the price of corn is around $9.00 CDN it should make the price per ton around $90 to $108. Not $45.00!
There are so many other examples of disinformation in the presentation. I don't want to spend the time going over them all.
One of the problems I have with this is that the organization that is presenting this information is also the representative on the National Price / Sustainable Beef group. The disinformation goes right through to the top of the industry.
When will Manitoba Government and the Canadian Cattle Association start to present fact based actual data driven pricing and costs?

[15444]

I watched the December 8, 2022 youtube video from Manitoba Ag.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joGvSabI7Pg&t=1305s
The first presentation appears to be factual and shows the need for proper nutrition for the cattle.
The second presentation is in my opinion disinformation. I do not use corn silage on my operation. The presentation on cost of production lists corn silage as $45.00 / ton or about two cents a pound. That is about half of what it is actually worth. I thought that corn silage was based on 10 to 12 times corn price. If the price of corn is around $9.00 CDN it should make the price per ton around $90 to $108. Not $45.00!
There are so many other examples of disinformation in the presentation. I don't want to spend the time going over them all.
One of the problems I have with this is that the organization that is presenting this information is also the representative on the National Price / Sustainable Beef group. The disinformation goes right through to the top of the industry.
When will Manitoba Government and the Canadian Cattle Association start to present fact based actual data driven pricing and costs?

Can't sucker the next generation to sell their soul if you give them factual numbers.

Jokes on the cattle groups. Old guys are quitting/dying, young guys can't afford or don't want to be a slave, and established middle age guys like me, tell the groups that we really don't care if they ceased to exist tomorrow.

[DaneG]

$45/t may not be too far off base, seeding, fertilizers, seed, and spray could be done for $400/ac a decent yield of 15t/ac =$26/t leaving $19/t for custom harvest or $285/ac.

[The Don]

I think the $45 a ton number is low. I do not grow corn for silage or grain. The current price of fertilizer would push that number up wouldn't it?
Why would the US universities use 10 to 12 x the price of corn to get a base line number?
Also... by the time I tool up to be able to seed / harvest and feed that would add a bunch more money to the costs. The current price of cattle will not pay for any of those expenses. Turning $9 corn into $2 beef does not make you money.

[The Don]

I went outside, doing chores and thinking over what I had posted. I thought that I shouldn't dismiss what you said with out giving you the opportunity to substantiate the price you had given. Can you show me how to produce corn this year for $45 a ton? Please show all costs...
Thanks

[The Don]

I read an article that stated that the "average" silage would have 7.5 bushel of grain per ton of silage. If corn is worth $9.00 a bushel that would be $67.50 a ton for the grain. What am I not seeing here?

[DaneG]

All depends on as fed tons or dry matter tons!



https://www.ruralrootscanada.com/bcrc-silage-cost-of-production/

[The Don]

Can you explain that table and reference to me. I'm not following what you / they are saying.

[The Don]

I read that as they had to add 10 % to the yield of the silage to make it competitive with the hay.
They are using Manitoba Agriculture numbers for a reference. Manitoba Agriculture uses a 175 hp MFW tractor that they bought for $50 k. Where can I buy one of those that isn't 45 years old? And is reliable without costing a pile of cash to rebuild and maintain?
Look hard at the numbers they use. They are all low.
The 7.5 bu per ton number is valid for 65% moisture silage.
A silage crop should yield at least 90 bu / acre . When the grain yield drops below 90 bu the tonnage and quality of the silage drops substantially. Or so I understand.
The numbers that I looked at showed silage corn production at about $830 US / acre. American costs are all lower than Canadian. They are using $440 as a bench mark.
Whose numbers can you trust?
If 15 ton x 7.5 bu = 112.5 bu x $9.00 = $1,012.5 grain Would feeding that to a group of cows result in a higher income? would there be a profit?

[The Don]

Guess what...

It's a miracle!!!

[The Don]

Did anyone notice that the same table is different on different days?
When I posted the table on 9 December 2022 the number posted as, 2022 @ January 1 was 6440.
The same table posted 7 March 2023 showed the number posted as, 2022 @ January 1 as 6420.
Those tables are direct from Statscan.
I wonder what the actual / real number is.