G8 Summit

[rsomer]

Although this may sound like an odd topic for a beef forum, maybe not. Bush stacked his schedule of meetings at the G8 Summit Tuesday with leaders from countries that were critical of the Iraq war: Russia, Canada and Germany. His first meeting, though, was with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi of Japan.

Paul Martin has interrupted his election campaigning to attend the G8 Summit. He will be meeting with Bush and no doubt the Japanese Prime Minister as well. The topic of BSE is sure to come up. And Iraq too. Everything is connected as the USDA delays announcing its rule on BSE while the U.S. seeks political and trade concessions from its trading partners and allies.

[whiteface]

I'm convinced the US will not open the border to our cattle unless and until the Japaneese take it from the States. Hence the incredible "delay" that nobody can "understand." Since they stupidly and/or stubbornly refuse to "give in" to Japans request I personally think we're looking at a VERY long time or never to getting our live beef moving south. The US is doing very well with their industry, thank you, and is only interested in trade if and when they can get the product cheap ( which they probably can for awhile anyway, from us) and export it for a big markup ( which they cannot for various reasons). Their own industy is thriving, they can afford to wait, consumption for the US is eqivalent to their production. They don't import, they don't export, they'll be fine. There is absolutly no crisis with beef in their eyes whatsover, from production to consumer confidence. I don't want to wait for them anymore, I won't live long enough for them to get around to being finished punishing us for Iraq on top of the fact that they feel they have no beef crisis. Let's do something about our own situation. I realize, rsomer that the states was our biggest live exporter but we can be just as competitive with another kill plant or two and the opportunity to tap back into Japan and UK and other countries for that matter. Let's do this now while the issue is hot and the election is comeing.

[kato]

Isn't it a coincidence that the US is stepping up it's surveillance first in washington state?

At first I thought. ya looking for more Canadian cows. Then when I thought about it a bit I realized that this is the part of the States where most of the Japanese exports go through.

Someone is talking behind the scenes, I would think.

[cowman]

Uh, Whiteface, I don't believe we really ever sold very much to the UK? And what we sold to Japan, while fairly substanstial, wasn't really a great lot? Now I suspect most of the steers going to Pasquel Washington, probably ended up in Japan...but heh, that is another discussion?
Ted Haney liked to always tell us all the good work his outfit was doing...after all he had to justify where all the money our checkoff dollars went to? But the true facts are most of our exports to places other than the US(and a smaller extent, to Mexico) were guts! Tripe, tongues, livers,etc.? The USA was the "show"?
Always was, always will be?
Europe likes to drivel about how it doesn't want beef with hormones? Well why didn't we jump right in there and quit using them? Fact...it wouldn't have made one iota of difference?...Europe doesn't want or need our beef! I think we all need to realize that "science" is nothing more than a tool to keep out the competition? If the North American beef industry could compete with the European beef industry, the fact is there wouldn't be a European beef industry!
Now before we become too smug, we also need to realize that if the South American Beef industry could compete with the North American beef industry...there wouldn't be a North American beef industry? Maybe that is a pretty hard reality for some of you guys who have been watching too many cowboy movies.

[kato]

South America. The sleeping giant. They have a lot of potential. I know guys in the States are pretty worried about them. Cargill is already setting up shop down there.

[Willowcreek]

Kato- I agree with you that South America in a few years is going to be a big player in the beef industry. Once they get their disease problems cured up, we will have a tough time competing with their cheap (some countries still have slaves) labor. And like you say Cargill and many of the other US corporations are buying up large areas of farmland and building modern facilities there.

The other one that worries me in the near future is the Australians. The US corporations are pouring millions into building packing plants and feedlots (no more all grassfed beef). With the proposed new trade agreement the US will drop all beef import limits over the years. I think this could have an impact on both the US and Canada.

[whiteface]

Yeah cowman, and before the 1960's they'd never had a man on the moon (who knows maybe they didn't even know there was a moon) and before last year there had never been a case of BSE here and we had all the safeguards in place so don't worry about it right? Stop acting like an old farmer and thinking that just because something has never been done it can't be done or can't happen, life is about change, not about doing the same shit our forefathers did just to end up just like them barking at our children telling them that even though the "lifestyle" is so great, the income isn't there. Maybe us young upstarts know something but guys like you are just so bent on doing it the way it was always done you'll never know. Are you still walking to school uphill both ways in the snow in the middle of summer too? How are we going to find out if we are capable of greatness if all we do is sit around and mope? Have you been listening to all the hopeless broken down farmers at the auction mart or did you become one right in front of our eyes. We're better than that, we can make a difference together, not sitting around feeling hopeless. Let's stop being owned and start being innovative.

[Willowcreek]

Chirac didn't make any brownie points with the US today. He's in town for the G8 summit, but refused to attend former President Reagans funeral as a representative of the French.
Conservative reporters are building it up as quite a snub.
O'Reilly is calling again for a total boycott of all French products.

[grassfarmer]

We hear constantly of South America being the rising force in agriculture. In Europe it was the former eastern bloc countries - yes they could potentially become bigger exporters if they can manage their disease and inflation costs but realistically what country in the developed world would move to a position of importing all it's foodstuffs and putting it's own producers out of business? Before everyone jumps on me and says it's happening already - it is on a small scale - that is to say the multi-nationals want to import enough to put price pressure on Canadian beef producers to sell their beef cheaply but they don't actually want us all out of business. Countries don't take these kinds of risks with their food supply and rightly so - hence there will always be some protectionism practised by all Governments.

[cakadu]

Kato - not only are the processors setting up down in the South American countries, many producers are too - some of them Canadian, who will eventually turn out to be the competition. They see the opportunity down there - plenty of grass, no real winters to speak of, a labor pool that gets paid far less than we do here and the list goes on.

I will say that they could benefit from sustainable grazing management practices.

The South American producer also has something that we don't or at least up until now have been reluctant to have - a willingness to work together to get the job done. In some respects they are light years ahead of us.

[cowman]

Whiteface: Am I being too pessimistic? I'll have to plead guilty to that! Maybe I shouldn't be expressing the opinion that I don't think the federal government, the provincial government, the ABP and the CCA are going to allow testing? I do believe every animal should be tested...and I've said it many times? However I don't think it is going to happen...sorry if you don't like my opinion.
I am afraid of change? Well I don't like change, I will admit. I like things to just roll along smoothly(which seldom happens)! And with out a doubt you young guys who have elected to stay in agriculture definitely need to have some changes...because what we're doing now obviously isn't working very well?
But how am I like the old auction market farmers who can't change? I am diversified, I'm trying a new ag venture, and I'm trying to prepare for my retirement...isn't that a pretty big change? Obviously I don't see the payoff in cattle that I need to keep doing them...that doesn't mean everybody has to think the way I do. Because obviously you must see a future in them and the payoff you get makes it worthwhile? And that is a good thing...it would be a pretty boring old world if we all thought the same?

[rsomer]

According to World Beef Overview at http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/circular/2004/04-03LP/Beefoverview.pdf Brazil is expected to surpass Australia as the worlds number one exporter of beef. The bulk of Brazil’s exports of fresh and frozen beef go to the EU, where U.S. beef does not compete for market share. Canadian beef exports are expected to rise 47% over 2003 levels as exports recover to pre-BSE levels. In 2004, Canadian beef exports are expected to rebound from 2003 levels to 565,000 tons, due to increased exports to the United States and Mexico, its two largest markets. The United States remains the world’s largest import market. United States Beef imports for 2004 are forecast 11 percent higher than 2003 at a record 1.5 million tons. Consumer demand remains strong, which has helped support prices after the closure of most U.S. export markets. Consumption is expected to expand by 4 percent in 2004. U.S. beef production is forecast to fall 4 percent, as cattle inventories decline. Declining cow beef production is expected to support demand for imports of lean manufacturing beef to mix with fat trimmings.
The EU is likely to remain a net importer.

[pandiana]

Thank you rsomer for this very important link.

This paper confirms my belief that 1) we need to push for independent packing facilities and 2) there are many markets that can be tapped other than US.

I realize our costs of production are higher than in S. America or Australia for that matter, as long as they are producing grass fed beef. However, as they move towards intensive production in higher quality grain fed beef, they will surely experience somewhat comparible costs. Australia also is moving towards grain fed beef I understand. This should improve our competitiveness for markets looking for high quality beef such as Japan, Korea.

Lower-grade export markets such as Russia and possible EU exist. We are closer to these markets and would hope transportation advantages would increase our competetive edge.

I realize that seeking non-US markets would be a struggle, but I do think it would be worth the effort. We have top genetics (no Ears) producing world class, quality beef, from cattle raised in a clean, heathly environment with only one scar on our record (BSE).

[grassfarmer]

Pandiana, could you provide some clarification on the sentence:
"However,as they move towards intensive production in higher quality grain fed beef, they will surely experience somewhat comparible costs." Have you proof that grain fed beef is better quality or healthier than grassfed?

[whiteface]

I have a comment for that question grassfarmer, even though the question was not directed at me. Just try biting into a holstein cow or a road kill deer or moose if you're wondering about taste difference of grain or grass. Health standpoint? I have less of an opinion, only that cattle should be fed whole grains rather than plate scrapings and chinken litter and the taste is much improved. In my opinion as well, grain is "grass" with the seed attached and has been bred up just like livestock to do various purposes beyond simply reproducing itself, much like cattle have been bred to produce a quality tasting product. This is breeding in my eyes, grasses and livestock. If we wanted different as a nation well we might all still be aboriginals. They don't "farm" they "hunt" and I think our society definatly has acquired a taste for quality grain-fed meat. Oh, and cowman, thanks for not comeing down too hard on me for running my mouth off. There are many things about you that I think are valuable and I do for sure appreciate that everyone has their own ways of doing things...it makes us all unique and with something worthwhile to bring to the table. I'm probably feeling pretty scared myself about some of the big changes that seem inevitable to keep the industry going, and had to cover up my own insecurities by sounding off.