BIG C Meeting June 7th

[grassfarmer]

rsomer, "Rather Canadian calls for 100% testing is strengthening Japan’s bargaining position in BSE talks with the U.S. thereby delaying the opening of our border." I find that a remarkable statement in your ABP quest to get the US border to open (or to keep it closed and help your friends at Tyson and Cargill). Japan is really improving their bargaining position with the US on the strength of a new movement from grassroots producers? So Japan is totally ignoring the Canadian Government, ABP, CCA the packing plants that will kill the cattle? Seems unlikely, but I hope Randy gets satisfaction from the success his campaign to test is having.
So you concede Europe is not testing 100% of their production - kind of negates using that argument to prove that Japan won't buy our beef even if we do test it.

[pandiana]

I am not against 100% testing in principle, although my reasons may differ. However, I agree that this option has nothing to do with the science as determined by OIE rules. We don't count every fish in the ocean to determine the population but by taking a statistically significant sample we can extrapolate population density from there. If enough tests are done to determine a high degree of probability that a positive test would show up, then this should satisfy the curent science. There would be no guarantee that there were no incidences but only that the incidence would be very, very small.

It should be noted, however, that the current tests available only detect BSE in animals 24 months or older. This does not mean that under 24 months are not infected but only that the test is not sensitive enough to pick it up in low levels. There is some evidence to suggest that baby calves are infected with the causative agent from milk replacer.

On the other hand, there is some logic in testing all from a market perpective.

Firstly, we would quickly determine whether or not the incidence of BSE was endemic in our cattle such as was found in UK. Secondly, even though there would be increased probability of finding another positive animal we could assure our market that even though BSE could be found, the animals offered for sale were assured to be BSE free. Thirdly, we need every advantage to restore our export partners that our product is BSE free, regardless of the so call 'science'.

All the above should be seen in the context that science really does not have a clear picture of the causative agent or how this pathology is transmitted.

The down-side of course is how finding another BSE case or more would affect public opinion. Again, based on OIE science, two positive BSE cases would indicate that there are probably around another 150 cases North American wide considering an integrated market. The fact that US has eliminated the slaughter of downer cows would skew the probability of finding another case. There is no doubt that public concern over BSE would soon disappear if there are no more cases found. There are plenty of other things for the public to worry about.

Notwithstanding the above, I still have some questions regarding how testing could be implemented.

If the government relented and allowed 100% testing to go ahead tomorrow, what kind of effect would it have on the backlog of the now estimated million cull cows? Do we have the laboratory facilities available? Do we have the storage facilities for refrigerating carcasses while waiting for the test results?

Or, if government instigated a policy for mandatory testing of 100%, would the government be able to force our US packers to test every animal?

If we had our own packing facilties and where allowed to test all animals then the choice would be ours.

I agree with those that feel we should be concentrating our efforts initially on getting funding for packing facilities for both OTM and under. Testing can be worked out by the time these facilities are on line. We need to get our cattle moving immediately.

[pandiana]

Another thing that has me puzzled is what happened to Russia and Korea, markets that we heard were moving to accepting Canadian Beef?

It would seem that despite the bargain basement prices of our cattle, we are unable to entice new markets by offering low prices? In most markets, price has a big effect on sales. Would NAFTA preclude our selling below market cost to Russia or other non-NAFTA countries?

[pandiana]

I do not know what has happened to the Russia thing but I beleive it has everything to do with pricing. There is no bargain basement price for Slaughtered and Boxed Canadian Beef. There is only a bagain basement price for those stealing the cattle.
All of the ABP advertising money in the world will not sell beef to anyone but the US with the current market situation there. It still bugs my ass that we advertise and promote for Cargil and Tyson with our money.(another story)

Thank you grassfarmer for recognising the importance of standing up for ourselves. We could sit patiently and wait for the border to open while more producers go down, or we could push whatever ticket we have available. I claim the opposite scenerio to rsomer. I beleive that by making some noise, we are actually helping to get the border open.
Japan's approach is not only consumer freindly, it is also disproving the hyperinfectious theory as we speak. Had a chat with a CFIA vet yesterday who agreed with this idea, and could find no arguement for testing except for costs.

This is not a short term solution pandiana, except for the fact that it is very likely going to speed up the border opening.
This is an idea beyond testing of cattle for BSE. It is about finding new markets and decreasing dependence on the AMERICAN CONSUMER (who the hell do you think cargil and tyson sell to rsomer).
It is about saving beef producers like cowman who have lost hope, from years of low profits, not just the BSE crisis. Easy for guys like cowman to jump on the rsomer bandwagon and dismiss any idea other than an open border. The slightist upswing will have him gone. That upswing will come with an open border, but the captive market will not.
Lots of hurdles to cross, but if we truely all got together on this issue we can and will cause positive results.

[cowman]

Well it is so nice of you, rpkaiser, to do my thinking for me! I wonder if you too, will have some wise "younger" man to do your thinking for you, when the day comes for you to quit? Or maybe you never will? I see all those old broke down men in the mart every week. Poor you.
Here are the facts: We are a part of NAFTA. Nafta says we HAVE to follow certain rules. If we don't want to follow those rules then we need to be out of NAFTA. So the question is this...Do we trash the best trade deal in the world for cows? Boys, it just isn't going to happen. Do you have any concept of the numbers involved?
Now I do understand, that by making a lot of noise, you might get someone to take notice and that is probably a good thing. But I doubt it will make the "powers that be" sit up and take much notice?
We also need to realize that rsomer is entirely right when he says the only real game in town is the US and Mexico. Really think about that? Europe doesn't want or need our beef and Japan is in reality a miniscule market...even at the best of times? Their domestic market is way more important, politically, than any special deal for Canada!
We've made our pact with the devil...he holds all the cards...and we better hope he decides to have some pity on us.
While I don't like the ABP, I do realize some of the people who represent us are not idiots and they think the ONLY way that border is ever going to open is if we play ball with the US. And I suspect they know more than I do? It is nice to know we have so many people here who know better than the ABP delegates...maybe they should have considered running in the last election?

[kato]

I have some questions.

Is the United States following NAFTA now? I would really like to know.

What will happen if they find another positive cow?

I suspect "science" will be out the door faster than a scalded dog. We will be right back at square one. The U.S. is ramping up testing in Washington state first. Looking for another Canadian cow perhaps? We know they aren't looking for an American one.

I heard cattle and BSE mentioned more in the last day on the TV and radio than I have in the last month combined. Coincidence? Or is some of the noise getting through. We may never know.

[pandiana]

I am curious, cowman. What makes NAFTA the best trade agreement in the world?

[pandiana]

Sorry for jumping the gun cowman. Which part of what I said, had you not said, and which part is untrue?
I did not and will not run as an ABP candidate. I have always said that they are doing the best they can with the goals they have in place. You have certainly run the ABP down as much or more than I ever have, and certainly have all the answers too. Why don't you run cowman, after you sell off your cows like you've said you plan over and over again.
Your facts about NAFTA are a joke.
The biggest problem we have is that one major player in this whole things neither wants or needs are beef. Can you guess who that might be?

[pandiana]

Went for a drive with a half sack of beer tonight wondering why I don't run in an ABP election or even for my new political party (Green), since the Reform is no more.
I am too immature grassfarmer. I get frustated when a positive aggressive approach is initiated and a bunch of naysayers jump all over it. All the while knowing that this positive aggressive approach has the potential to help the naysayers just as much or more than myself.
Our intergrated beef marketing shceme is a fine example.
You might say that I am the naysayer in the border opening issue. I hope like hell you guys are right and it does open. I could see my customers gaining a fair bit. Personally, I have worked very hard to gain a market for my cull steers and heifers, and an open border would not help my cull cow problem, nor my breeding stock sales.
Back to the political arena.
My views are very often on the outside of the norm. Sustainable agriculture, piss on the Chemicals, and inorganic fertilizer, and to hell with the mainsteam inefficient cattle breeds.
How far would you think I would get.

My only place to vent is places like this where I can apologize for my reactionary comments, feel somewhat free to voice my opinion, and try to help the people with hope who are not mainstream. That is not a place available to someone like me in the ABP, or the CCA, beleive me I have tried.
If you think I have all the answers, cowman, I certainly do not, but I do know that proactive works for me in every aspect of my life, and I will not stop.
Good luck with getting the border opened, I hope we are not holding back your diligent efforts too much.
Last beer of my six pack------chow.

[les]

If we dont make noise everyone will for get we have a problem.Was talking to a guy in the city last week and when I mentioned BSE he said " You guys still have a problem with that?I thought that was all over and done with"
So yes we had better make all the noise we can

[ALICIA]

PC member called me the other day and wanted to know if the PC could count on my vote. I told him you bet if they can get the boarder open for my beef. He laughted and said oka and hung up the phone with out another work.
I kind of got the feeling he know something about the boarder that I didn't know, you know like maybe the boarder wasn't ever going to open and us farmers are going to be the last to know.

[cakadu]

Please bear in mind that the Japanese consumer demanded 100% testing because they had lost confidence in the government. They lost confidence in the government because the government did not tell them the truth with respect to the animals making it into the food chain.

I don't think we've seen any of that here in Canada - or at least very little of it. I know that the odd time I have heard of someone that won't eat beef until this is sorted out, but that is the exception by far.

There have been valid points made on all sides to this problem and I can understand where each of the parties is coming from. It is terrific to see the passion and conviction of the forum participants. I think one thing that we all recognize is that things have to change. Exactly what that change is going to look like and how it will affect us will remain to be seen.

[cakadu]

I should have added that we may have lost confidence in our political leaders and parties, but for a whole host of other reasons.

[cowman]

Rpkaiser; Somehow you seem to think I am attacking you personally and I assure you I am not. You have to do what you have to do and that is okay. Quite frankly I agree that the things you propose are the right things. However, what I was trying to point out is it isn't going to happen, with the system we have in place. And the only way to change that system is to change the law and change the trade deal...now maybe that can happen...but it is doubtful?
I think I can honestly say, I've ripped the ABP more than just about anybody on this forum? I truly believe they shouldn't exist! I put time and money into trying to get rid of them when we got the chance! And yet my own ABP rep is a good friend...known him since we were both boys. He is not an idiot at all and although we don't see eye to eye on a lot of things, we never have a problem with our friendship or speaking our minds! And I can respect his slant on things, without necessarily agreeing with him.
I don't think time is ever wasted by hearing anothers opinion? You don't have to agree...in fact you might think the guy is way out in left field...but it is a good thing to understand where someone else is comong from? We are all a bit frustrated by this situation and sometimes we get a little short with each other...and that is okay too...in fact it would be sort of odd if we didn't get angry once in awhile!
Pandianna: Why is NAFTA such a good trade deal, especially for the west? Besides the massive money made by both Canada and the US, it finally started to free the west. You probably remember how it was when we were forced to buy all our goods from the east? And required to send all our resources east? We sure aren't where we need to be just yet but we're getting there? A classic example of what still needs to be done is the television sector. Do you like watching the Canadian tripe you get from CBC or Bell Xpress? Do you think it would be nice if you could get DISH or Direct TV without being a criminal? Why is it that the Canadian government can dictate what you watch?

[rsomer]

Pandiana: As always, good comments. Bob Speller has just announced that Canada will further harmonize its regulations with the U.S. so that feeding ruminant protein is banned from pig and chicken rations to avoid the possibility of this being fed to cattle. The U.S. and Canada are both committed to harmonizing our respective approaches to BSE. Given that, any arguments in favour of 100% testing are purely hypothetical until all NAFTA member countries agree. It will be interesting to see what comes out of the talks between the U.S. and Japan. Canada and Mexico should really be part of those discussions.

You asked about Russia and Korea. Check out http://ats.agr.ca/stats/Russia_x03.pdf Meat and edible meat offal exports to Russia were worth about $75 million in 2001 and 2002. Only $46 million in 2003 and $6 million so far in 2004. Canada’s number 1 export to Russia is meat although it is pork, chicken and ham that top the list of agri-food exports to Russia. Without seeing any numbers I would think that the U.S. is accepting all our beef exports since trade in beef resumed with the United States. Until we get more slaughter capacity there is no surplus beef available for South Korea and Russia. Our beef exports will be valued at U.S. prices which would make exports to Russia unlikely.