barley?

[cowman]

I'm hearing rumors that offers for fall barley are in that $2.10 range? Is this right?
Seems to me that some of these hay guys need to re-evaluate their prices if this is true? And how about silage? I always figured silage prices like this....$3 barley= $30 ton silage? So therfore $2.10 barley= $21/ton silage?
Might turn out to be a fairly cheap feeding year this winter?
It would seem, once again, I might have blew it! Got barley(on a crop share deal) and it is going to be less than satisfying...although it is shaping up to be one hell of a crop! Got hay for sale and it is maybe going to be worth next to nothing! Although it is still standing and hopefully we'll get it up without a lot of rain...thus hitting the horse market and doing okay!
Got darned yearlings that are going to take a big bath on! And a bunch of really good calves for next to nothing and some really good bred cows that I hope to get 4 bits on the dollar!
Life is good in agriculture?

[whiteface]

There's lots of money still in your land cowman. My alfalfa has has now just shy of 7 (yes SEVEN inches) on it since it went down July 2. Talk about "hay" that's worth nothing! My grandpa said not to worry, it'll make feed. Except this will go to feed my horses... they don't make much money around here, but then, I'm not sure if the cows will either. I'm sure glad I'm not buying hay...although, if you're ready to give yours away cowman, let me know!

[kato]

Be careful the hay doesn't make them get heaves, or they won't be cheap horses any more. LOL

[charliep]

Since the talk is of barley, I thought I might toss in my barley supply demand table.

http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sis5324?opendocument

1) Depending on how weather turns out, the barley supply demand situation is likely to be very similar to this last year. Based on an average crop, western Canada will produce the amount of crop it will use. Could turn really hot during July and cut yields but less likely now. The more likely scenario for weather is harvest problems. Any decline barley production in the latter case will be offset by increased feed grade wheat. Demand side is more difficult so I will let someone else tell me what will happen with calves this fall

2) US corn S&D remains tight and is based on 145 bu/acre yields. Based on current conditions, the yield is a distict possibility. Reflected in the fact Dec. corn futures are $2.50/bu - not $3.00/bu. Landed southern Alberta, US corn should hold in the $150 ish/tonne range.

3) Lots feed barley in the world this year with better crops Europe and former Soviet Union. Current prices close to US $100/t landed middle east. The CWB will not be a factor in the feed barley market (current PRO reflects this).

4) I'll make a comment that would get me strung up in the commodity room. We should talk about revenue/acre and not price. I would rather have an 80 bu/acre crop that I sold for $2.25/bu rather than a 50 bu crop I sold for $3/bu. Similarly, I would rather have a 3 t/acre hay crop sold at $70/t than a 1 t/acre one I sold for $150/t.

[cswilson]

Well as somebody who buys all his feed it will be kinda nice not to be held up for ransom by the hay gypsies this year-some suppliers are just great but there are some aren't afraid to put the blocks to you-geez i wouldn't feed that hay to my horse-they'd be better off pawing out.

[whiteface]

Sounds like y'all like your horses quite a bit...care to give any number of mine a decent home? Very well bred appendix quarter horses, excellent conformation and too much "cow." Can't run them with cattle or they're all running. Not making me a dime. Have just been cleaning up the junk that the purebred cattle won't eat.

[BFW]

Cowman, with all the cheap feed that looks to be available this fall, how many producers will be wanting to retain ownership of their calves and yearlings for another border opening play?

[rsomer]

Charliep: I would agree that more bushels, more revenue per acre is better than high prices/low yields. If you have no crop, it don't matter what the price is, you are not getting any return.

Re supply/demand, I do not think the market has a good handle on how many cows are out there. I would expect there are more calves running around this summer than we are led to believe.

[cswilson]

Whiteface send em over you can never have too many horses-we run our horses with the cows all the time-never have a problem-mind you after some long days the last thing they want is to chase a cow some more. Yours are bored.

[cowman]

Rsomer: I suspect you are right about a whole pile of yearlings still out there waiting to hit the market. If I was a feedlot I'd be rubbing my hands in glee with the thought of cheap barley and ultra cheap feeders! I suspect they can live with some pretty cheap fat prices if they get the feed and calf for firesale prices?
Don't have any horses but when we did they always got the best hay. Don't think you want to feed them anything dusty. Prefer a good quad myself!
But consider the price of barley, if it is going to be that cheap? Why buy hay at $60/70 ton when you could feed barley and straw...providing it gets down in that $2.10 range?
And Whiteface, have you considered getting that weathered hay, tub ground with some decent stuff? Get a feed test on both types of hay and try to hit an acceptable level of nutrition?
I've always found that if you never turn hay it can take a pile of rain and still be semi-decent, but turn it even once and it gets rained on then you have little more than a filler