40 cent steers calves?

[cowman]

According to Ag talk(Canadian producers) Nilson brothers are saying $40 TOP price for 5 weight steer calves! Now if this is accurate then heifers would be in that 25 to 28 range...top end? That is about $150!!!
Now I know some of you use "voodoo" economics to justify what you do, but really...$150!!!
Is this shaping up to be a wreck or what? No way is the government going to be able to save our butts!
I wonder who can survive with 40 cent steer calves? Do you really love your cows enough to keep bleeding red forever? When do most of you realize the game is over and we are toast?

[BFW]

Cowman, a few days days ago I asked what level of calf prices would motivate producers to retain ownership of their calves this fall and I got no response. Surely at $40.00/cwt people will resist selling their calves(right or wrong) and retain ownership at least until the calves are weighing 700-800 pounds. The only thing I see that will drive calf prices that low (assuming barley prices in the $100.00-$120.00/tonne range is an overwhelming number of calves comming to market all at once. Having said that, if nothing changes vis a vis the border situation then I believe that average steer calves basis Alberta will trade in the $60.00-$70.00/cwt range, still poor but a more realistic level than $40.00. Someone suggested that feeders will be rubbing their hands with glee with the prospect of lower feeder and feed grain prices. This could hardly be further from the truth as even with significantly lower input costs the cattle feeder has a very unclear picture as to what the profit opportunity is on those calves. The only good thing for the cattle feeder is his overall risk is lower having priced in those calves cheaper. I would appreciate any comments in regards to this.

[rusty1]

Na don't wory the packers pants are full of money and they will be glad to spend it on calves this fall. :-(

[whiteface]

My opinion is also that there is quite a bit of feed around. If calves are worth nothing, feed is worth nothing and the guys with feed will give it to their calves rather than get robbed of both their commodities. I'll let y'all know soon though, my calves are invariably some of the first to hit the markets every year and I'll sure need all of your shouldars to cry on when they go. I'm thinking 60-70 cents for 5 and a half weights. But yeah, cowman, it'll take some voodoo math for me to break even on my calves. Any of you have too much feed and care to make me an offer on some pretty nice straightbred polled whitefaces, not cut, started on dry feed, no vaccinations, but very healthy. Start me at 12 cents...

[cswilson]

If there ever was a bigger gypsy than a packer it would be a Nilson.

[greybeard]

They said the same thing last year. It's called setting expectations. Set them low and people will be happy with 70 cents because they were told they were only going to get 40.

[kato]

That is so true! Aim low, and you won't be disappointed.

For 40 cents, nothing leaves this yard.