Fall calf pricing

[grassfarmer]

I'll raise this question because we all know we will have to think about it shortly although it is nice to talk instead of positive longterm plans for the industry.
How bad will calves sell this fall? We have all heard the 40 or 50 cent/lb prices how likely are they?
For me if nothing changes and fats are making $70 cwt this time next summer what do we do? A fat steer at 1300lb bringing $70 comes to $910. Compared to fall 2001 when 6 7 weight calves were bringing that $900 sum it's quite a drop! How much will custom feedlots be charging this winter with cheaper barley and plenty silage? At what price is feeding them out a better bet than selling calves or visa versa?
One thing that encourages me is the significantly lower cost of winter feeding cows this coming winter. We have good feed bought when combined with our good grass reserves leads me to think I can take a cow through next winter for a purchased feed cost of $120-$130.(forage cost - not minerals, salt or yardage before anyone gets started on me!) That's got to be a huge benefit compared to the last couple of years.

[ALICIA]

I'f you think you can that is all that matters.
We each run our opperation differently and have different ideas, but the cash flow is what tells the story on each of us.
I for one think the herefords is the beef cattle that will still be standing when this is over. The next guy thinks it's the angus, or limmo or shorthorn.
THE CASH IN THE BANK AT THE END OF THE YEAR IS WANT REALLY TELLS THE STORY.

Its a lot of work for no money, me if I don't have them I couldn't pay the tax on the land. I work out and the cattle pay the land tax, and I can say I own a farm and have a horse.

[cowman]

Grassfarmer: yes I expect you probably can do it for right around that figure, providing you can graze them out quite late this fall.
I suspect hay will get as low as 2.5 cents for semi decent stuff. Figure 25 lb./day about 62 cents. Throw in about 15 lb. straw at about 1 cent/lb. your getting into that 80 cent/day range? If you can graze them out until the middle of December you should be pretty close to your target.
My Dutch neighbor informs me guys are now contracting barley for Nov. delivery in the $1.75/bu/$1.80 range! Now that means barley is priced at 3.6 cents/lb.! How about this? 10 to 12 lb. barley at 3.6 = 36 to 44 cents! Add 25 lb. straw at 1 cent = 25 cents plus 44 cents= 69 cents/day!
Now maybe a person needs to adjust these numbers according to what that straw might cost him or how steep the transport might be. However, with the cheap price of barley, hay should definitely follow suite and be adjusted down a lot lower than many people are asking for it?
If you can get straw for basically nothing then cheap barley definitely is the way to go? Some of this cruddy hay probably has less feed value than good two row barley straw?

[grassfarmer]

Cowman, lower price barley certainly could have it's place in lower cost feeding but as a cow ration I wouldn't be interested in feeding the high levels you are talking about. Cows are afterall foragers and I think should be on a diet of long fibre not grain. A straw/ barley ration would presumably be far higher in energy than necessary and woefully short of protein just prior and post calving. How convenient is it to feed 10lbs of barley per cow all winter - OK on smaller numbers perhaps but not really practical if you winter cows out on pasture as I do. Barley being cheaper certainly helps us background calves more economically if we decide to follow that option.

[cswilson]

You can balance a ration adequately for cows with barley and straw-we've wintered on pellets and straw a few times with no trouble-have an old combine hopper that we auger full-can feed 150 cows 10 lb/day in a half hour just dribbles it in aline. Cows no doubt prefer hay but tough times sometimes dictate least cost rations. Our cows only see yard when we A.I. or preg test.

[grassfarmer]

I've used pellets and straw many times too cswilson but not grain and straw. Straw is what lucky to be 5% protein unless you have lots of weeds or it was baled green. Barley is quoted at 12% protein but I thought in fact it actually fed more around 8% protein. Short of adding alfalfa forage or some other type of pellets I don't see how you would get adequate protein. What percentage of wastage do you get winter feeding cows pellets or grain on the ground? I tried feeding large diameter pellets that way once and it looked like too much was trampled into the snow even if you ploughed a path to drop it on. That is the one thing I like about pit silage you can add anything to it and it sticks and isn't wasted when fed through an old silage wagon. Shame all the standing silage around here is more expensive than trucking in hay this year!

[BFW]

Grassfarmer projectedosts of gain for the finishing of steer calves should be in the $0.55-$0.60 per pound of gain and that should include all costs from prcessing to interest. If you use your assumption of $70.00/cwt fats next summer then good quality steer calves basis south central ALberta should trade (asssume 550 pound steer)in the $85.00/cwt area.

[cswilson]

Grassfarmer I didn't notice very much waste in fact the cows hearing really improved-they sure could hear the feed truck from a long ways off.

[cowman]

Grassfarmer: I've never heard that barley fed at 8%, but who knows I guess?
However if you take barley at 12% then ten pounds is 1.2 lbs. of protein.
I believe 5% for straw would be awfully high but 4% on good two row barley straw would probably be possible? So 25 lbs. straw would give you 1 pound of protein? For a total of 2.2 lbs per day?
In my old cow/calf management book I noted that the daily requirements for a 1200 lb. late gestation cow are 1.8 lb. protein, so even if barley fed at 8% you would still be meeting the cows requirements?
I remember years ago when I took my A.I. course the instructor was very adament that feeding any excess protein, above the cows daily requirements, resulted in a complete waste of protein or a larger calf!
I wonder when people are feeding this high percentage alphalfa hay just how much protein they are actually wasting? Or if they have any idea of what the protein content really is? I remember getting alfalpha/timothy hay tested and it was only in that 12.5% range, but some of this early cut stuff can get fairly high? If hay is sneaking up on that 16% range then how does one keep that protein level down in that 1.8 pound level and still maintain efficiency? No matter what that cow still needs 2.5% of her body weight in dry matter? I believe straw should always make up a good portion of just about any ration to be cost effective...that is if you have access to good cheap straw!
I have in the past fed barley/straw when it became cost effective. Rolled the straw bales out and put the barley right on top. Seemed to work very well other than the fact it was always a struggle to not get them too fat! In fact it works just like swath grazing?
Being fairly tight with my money I always try to search out the cheapest way of doing things, but I know this doesn't work for everybody.
I also wonder how this hay that has been rained on measures up in the protein department? Does the level deteriorate in a big way when it turns that nice black color?