Not too bad

[BFW]

Have you noticed the large amount of heavy yearlings (steers and heifers weighing 1000 pounds plus) coming off of grass) recently? That's where last years calves went, to grass!

[cowman]

You are definitely right BFW and I suspect there are a lot of them still out there. You still can see a lot of big yearlings out and about in the country.
A lot of people took a chance last year and kept their calves...and got burned big time! I don't think it was a bad decision...it was just the Washington cow that threw a monkey wrench into the scheme! So you roll the dice and you take your chances.
I would suspect cattle feeding this winter might make some sense? Feed is cheap and abundant, calves are cheap and abundant? The chances of the border opening to bone in beef look good in the New Year. There are a lot of positive things happening right now that indicate we may just get this industry turned around.

[BFW]

Farmers Son in this environment there is really no way to quantify the risks associated with buying cattle to put on feed so to say thay feedlots are pencilling in a healthy margin for risk is somewhat misleading. Right now the only tool available is to secure a contract with one of the packers and those are few and between and tend to work lower once they have enough done in any one delivery period. There are many factors driving the market to where it is now those being year end income deferral for tax management, packers buying cattle, Americans(and Canadians)speculating on a border opening. My point is there are many factors that go into determining prices and I think that to say that feeders pencilling in wider risk premiums is a very small part of the equation. No one is bigger than the market and it will go where it will higher or lower. As for the profits on the cattle placed in February/March there were lot more cattle that lost money than made, as there were not many feeder cattle sold at those low prices that everyone remembers. We will all get through this situation a lot healthier if we make decisions based on what is good for our own families and businesses and forget about the "what ifs", do what it takes to survive. Sorry for rambling.