Is this typical?

[cowman]

Talked to a "younger" rancher(if 46 can be considered younger?)the other day and asked him what he was doing with his calves. He didn't have a whole lot of faith in the $200/calf thing and figured he'd unload the whole works except for his regular replacement heifers. Said he'd probably tag them later if it looked promising.
Told me he was getting darned sick of the cow business and has got to the point where he doesn't really care if the darned thing ever straightens out! Has some crop land and although he got a good crop off he is disgusted with the prices. The bright spot in his life was he got a couple of wells and one seismic outfit crossing his land this summer!
He wondered aloud why he continues to throw his life away working hard for so little compensation? Is considering looking into doing something else where he can get a sense of accomplishment again!
I believe this attitude is becoming more and more prevalent all the time...and not just in the cattle industry, but in just about every aspect of Canadian agriculture? I wonder how many hog farmers will "see the light" with the latest little American adventure against fair trade?

[Bez]

Yes it is typical.

You were not talking to me - because I am 49 - but I am up to here with it all.

Tired of starving and tired of not having two cents rattle in my pocket and tired of hearing how the economy is booming and tired of .....

Bez

[Bez]

The scary part of this is that we stand to lose an entire generation of farmers. Younger farmers are not only faced with the low commodity prices, high input costs etc., but most of them are trying to raise a family and provide some sort of decent quality of life.
Oil wells and seismic dollars look pretty attractive to someone that has been struggling to keep a farm afloat. In our area people are getting $20,000 for wells plus annual revenue.
Off farm employment in the oil and gas industry is an alternative that many younger farmers are taking a serious look at.
It is a sad situation.
I did see on the Alberta Government News Releases yesterday that producers are reaping financial rewards with the CAIS program.

[Bez]

emerald1 - cais? Ha!

Just before this disaster hit my wife and I embarked upon an expansion program - lawyers, accountants, insurance companies and bankers all approved.

For three years we were in negative margins - well planned and well thought out - business plan proceeded exactly as planned and all parties were happy. Believe me that is NOT the case now.

I live in pc Ontario - a horribly anti ag part of the country. Negative margins menas we do not qualify for most of the program - even through we were profitable before this, we now are hooped. Wife and I now work off farm to keep it afloat - how many business owners take a second job to keep their business running?

Lovely, just frigging lovely.

Bez

[kato]

I think just about everyone in the agriculture sector is just plain burned out.

You don't mind hard work if you can see some good come from it. But when you slug away 7 days a week from dawn to dusk (and sometimes longer), and then look out the window and see your neighbours from town trotting off to the lake with their fifth wheel campers it can get to you. Especially when you see that they consider a vacation as a right that no one can take away. We on the other hand feel guilty if we're not working! Something wrong with this picture.

I work off farm too, and if I didn't, we'd be a lot worse off. Haven't even used up my holidays because we can't get away to do anything. Planning on using them to clean corrals...wow, now there's a vacation! LOL That's assuming we don't get shut down by snow.

I bet if every one of us could sc**** up the cash, find someone to watch the cattle, and take a week away from the farm we'd come back with a more positive attitude. We'd probably come back a lot healthier too.

[WoolyBear]

The proverbial S*&T has hit the fan now in the hog industry I hear. Maple Leaf is not renewing contracts figuring they can pick up all the hogs they can on a CASH basis. Certainly doesn't look like they are interested in providing anyone with a secure future anymore. The BIG keep getting bigger and the S*&T keeps running downhill. Where does a young farmer find security? AND ITS NOT in the oil patch.

[WoolyBear]

yes this is typical cowman last couple of fall runs i bye five to six hundred calves around 650 dollar not this fall but adding 200 dollar on 40% off the herd is not bad busenis the huge losses are on fat cattle at the moment and have been all summer no pay out on them calves i bought last fall at1.40 TODAYI PAID O.95 ME BE WE HING IN THERE HOPE TO READ SOME MORE INTERESTING STORIES ON AGRI-VILLE.COM I CANT FIND CAPS LOC O JA JUST GOT IT DO BETTER NEXT TIME JUST LIKE FEEDING CCCCCCattle

[cowman]

jerryk: You got caught in a wreck and there is not a lot you can do about that! Things looked postive last fall and it should have turned around if it hadn't been for that darned cow in Washington!
Contrary to grssfarmers statement that I am permanently negative, I do believe things are going to turn around(barring another BSE case)! I do believe things are starting to look positive for the future in the Canadian cattle business!
Lots of cheap feed! A lot of the playboys are gone! More killing capacity coming on line.
All we need is that border open!
I get the feeling that Bush is going to win this election and I suspect when he does the border opening won't be far behind! Also the Americans have been muscling the Japanese to open the border and they have the clout to get it done? When the Japanese border opens, the whole of Asia will open?
This thing is going to turn around and when it does it will be "let the good times roll"!

[farmers_son]

I am glad to see your optimism. The good times may roll but they won't roll like before. Beyond BSE, the change in the CND$ is going to impact us and that impact has not yet hit home. Producers locked into loans taken out in the last five years which were really based on a 65 cent dollar are going to find it a struggle to cashflow the payment with a 80 cent or higher Canadian buck.

[cakadu]

Things would look even better for us if we concentrated on finding markets other than the one "next door".

Is it any wonder they keep treating us worse and worse when we just keep coming back for more?

I firmly believe that in 10 years, when we have our own packing capacity, many new markets - so that the risk gets spread around - and organizations that are keeping the best interests of their contituents in mind, that we will look back on this and think that it was the best thing that could have happened.

Change is hard and we are taking steps to move forward. What we need to do is quit looking south for all our solutions.

[cakadu]

I forgot to mention that the producer will be getting more value for what he produces.

[cowman]

Well Linda the reality is this: The US market is the "show" and we will always depend on it? The fact is we are a high cost producer and we just can't compete for the low cost beef trade.
It is always nice to contemplate taking over the "wealthy markets" in Japan, Europe etc. but it just isn't going to happen. Europe will never let our beef in...hormones or no hormones! Japan needs to trade big time with the US, but not with us? They can just continue to buy our raw materials when it suits them, but they don't really care about or need our puny market?
Trading systems usually develop for a reason and that reason is money? This little blip on the North American trade scene won't last forever? Eventually we'll get it straightened out with the US...one way or the other! Maybe we'll have to become the 51st state to do it!

[kpb]

I think we should recognize that even when the border opens (if it does) our prices are not going back to where they were before this fiasco. I recall getting $2 a lb for a light feeder a few years back. That's not going to happen again in the near future simply because, as farmers son said, our dollar has risen so much. In fact, I'd say our 5-weight feeders are only a little shy right now of where they would be if the border opens because of the exchange rate. Also we should all be aware that Brazil is going to be importing huge quantities of beef to the U.S. within a year as the States are lifting their ban.We cannot compete in Canada against low-price competitors. Hate to be glum, it's not in my nature, but I do not see a bright picture for our industry in the future. A few years ago our herd was 440 cows, now down to 240 plus 600 grassers. I frankly do not see how a stockman can make a reasonable return on his investment. The bottom line is I could sell the cows now, and sell maybe a half of land, put the money in dividend-paying stocks or bonds and have more annual income than I do now and still have lots of land to play with and no worries. My kids have been told they are not going to ranch when they get old enough and they are all well on their way to getting good educations and great jobs. They all want to live in the country but not make a living in the country. No one in their right mind, in my humble opinion, would encourage their children to work in an industry that, even in so-called good times, has such a low return on capital.

[cakadu]

Cowman, that is where killing it here and shipping it elsewhere will be the key. It may take some time for us to shift from our commodity thinking, but I do believe that we will eventually move away from that. Maybe not entirely, but we will have shifted a long way from it.

As perceived "low cost producers" it often seems to me that we are also low price takers as well. It is an entire paradigm shift when it comes to many of the industries that we operate in, not just in agriculture.

While there is much grumbling about what the UPA and Quebec get/do, they are working together producing value-added products and doing well. We have some lessons that we could learn from them.

There is a small flame going here and I'm sure that it will grow larger as time - and much needed changes in leadership - go by.

[kpb]

Again, I hate to be a nay-sayer but I think we have to be realistic about the chances of independent packing plants operating successfully on a long-term basis. The fact is that we used to have a viable domestic packing plant industry in this country and it could not compete with the big multi-nationals. The people who ran those domestic plants were not foolish or uneducated but simply found it impossible to maintain reasonable margins and upgrade in the face of huge competition. Why do you think it will be different this time when the multis are already well-entrenched in this country, are making big bucks and will jealously protect their markets. There is a reason why the proposed new packing plants are having trouble attracting investments dollars and that reason is that venture capitalists and investors with big dollars will not touch them with a pole because they do not think they can succeed.