U.S. Election winner

[Cattleman]

How big of a deal do you think it is if Kerry wins? Some reports show him friendlier to Canada, and they always call him the flip flopper. Bush is all about free trade but hardly practices it. Plus in politics, since bush is for free trade, Kerry would have to be against, even just for lip service.
Anyway just some thoughts, also think there will be any price response on the markets on the 3rd?? Assuming they know the winner!!

[pandiana]

Just came back from a cow/calf seminar at which Ted Haney was a guest speaker. I was very impressed with this man's experitise and involvement in our export markets. I am still trying to digest the significance of some of the points he addressed.

No. 1, The Americans are not against double dealing. On one hand they say that they are working towards establishing trade with Canada, claiming that we are an 'integrated North American market'. On the other hand when dealing with Japan, Korea, Taiwan (and I think, the Philipines) they say that they are provisionly BSE free and Canada is not(as their BSE case originated in Canada) despite the fact the OIE declares us as an equal risk. They have managed to shut us out of these markets, at least for the short term. Apparently, Japan has denied this, saying that we are the same market. I am not sure of my facts here as it was at the end of the day listening to a verbal presentation. I hope to get a transcript soon so that I feel more comfortable with the facts.

It's getting late and I can't spell anymore so will hope to hear from someone who can add to this discussion.

[dalek]

I doubt if it makes a difference to the border, or Canadian ag in general, but if Kerry wins it should be generally positive to the Canadian economy (strictly gut feeling though)

[cakadu]

Seems to me that I read somewhere that Korea will be keeping it's border shut to American beef and will not be following suit with the other Asian countries that are going to be resuming the trade in American beef at some undetermined time in the future.

It certainly isn't going to be a done deal from the Japanese perspective as many things have to be worked out yet.

[farmers_son]

It might be interesting to read Ambassador Celluci's comments at http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2004/10/21/beef_cellucci041021.html

Important to the discussion is the possibility that Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle may not be reelected. From South Dakota, Daschle led the Democrats move to keep Canadian live cattle and beef out of the U.S.

I note the Canadian focus on the U.S. election when it may be very possible that Canada may have another federal election before there is any movement on normalizing beef trade with Canada, regardless of which candidate is elected President of the U.S.

[Willowcreek]

Just my two bits worth again from south of the border. I'm not sure if the Presidental election will make that much difference- Bush is more protrade and big business (multinational packers)- Kerry is more US jobs, but is such a flip flopper and made so many commitments that he can't keep half of them, that no one can figure out what he will do. If Daschle loses- that will mean a big supporter of the border closure out-but the rest of the Congressmen are getting extreme pressure, too.

But from what I gather talking to a lot of cattlemen (members of all organizations) much of this will not depend on who is elected. Its almost a given that no one wants old live cattle to come south for several years- under 30 month slaughter cattle may in the next year or two if Canada and USDA can come up with a plan- USDA needs to implement a US mandatory ID and a permanent marking system (hot brand, tattoo, spaying)for imported cattle to make sure they don't enter the US breeding herd. Anything short of that will be fought and possibly tied up in court for years.

Its tough to get support for the Canadian rancher when the US rancher is selling $700 calves and record high cull cows and bulls. Like one fellow at the salebarn today said- in stead of us getting these prices once every 10 years, we should have been getting them every year for the last 10.

[kpb]

The last comment is exactly why we need to have a plan in Canada to deal with the border being closed for a long time. As I said before it does no good to be wishing and hoping for things that are not going to happen in the near future. It does not matter who is elected in the U.S.---whoever it is will KNOW very soon that the ranchers of the U.S. do not want the border open.
And the plain fact is is that one American rancher who does not want the border open is worth more to an American politician than all the ranchers in Canada who do want it open.
I wish we could face up to this reality. We've spent 18 months trying to get the border open--does anyone really think we're closer now than we were at the start? We need to start working right now to protect our own interests.

[jensend]

willowcreek - do any of these guys at the salebarn ever stop to consider your imports are higher than ever and your exports are down but the prices are still where they are? the border is an obvious factor but i think it's been a pretty easy thing for r-calf to jump up and say look what we did for you when the border hasn't been nearly as significant as it appears at first glance. i think a lot of american ranchers have been suckered by r-calf and one day will find out the true motives of the people who founded it.

[farmers_son]

I appreciate Willowcreeks comments and they echo what I have been hearing from those U.S. cattlemen I have talked to.

Still what actually happens may or may not be exactly what the U.S. cattleman wants just like it may not be what the Canadian cattleman wants. I do believe there will be no movement of live OTM cattle for years but we will see movement of live fat cattle sooner than Willowcreek suggests but it will be direct to a U.S. packer eliminating any concerns or need for brands, spaying etc.

As Willowcreek mentions, it will make little difference which leader is elected as President.

[Cattleman]

That is sort of what I felt, I don't think it matters who wins, we'll just have to pick up on the signals, once the president is decided.
Jensend, I agree 100% with you, these high prices because of the border closure is a bunch of bull, the North American market is short of cattle, and thats it. BSE has also maybe pointed out how strong the demand for beef is and we are able to extract more out of the market with the low supply of beef.
If r-calf and producers will think prices will stay like this they are crazy too, border open or not. These record prices will eventually cause the cattle herd to expand and causing an oversupply of cattle again, whiping out these margins, too much greed in the system to let these markets continue!!

[Willowcreek]

jensend- In answer to your question- I'm not sure that many people are aware of the amount of boxed beef coming across the border- and the amount of beef being imported totally into the US-- unless you follow it closely on these web sites or in some of the Ag publications, it isn't that big of a public story. Packers don't go out and advertise imported beef- instead they pass it all off as a US product.
I also get the feeling that most cattlemen in my area are aware that there are several factors influencing the calf and cow prices- but the closed border is the most visible and dominant one. Its more of a tangible you can see, where everything else is theory.