Good calf prices?

[cowman]

Consider this? In the fall of 2003 our dollar was worth around 63 cents US? Today our dollar is worth around 81 cents US? A 28.57% increase?
Now if you could have got $1.28/lb. for your 600 lb. steers last year you would have been fairly happy, right?
So today when you sell that 600 lb. steer for $1/lb you are in fact recieving $1.28 in 2003 Canadian dollars! So be happy.

[whiteface]

Yes, cowman, be happy for a change. Try not to analyze it to death. People know if they're making their mortgage payments or if they're not. Thought you were getting out. Did you change your mind now that the calf prices are not quite as miserable as you had predicted? Glad to have you around, just don't need a lot of the misery most of the time. Life is good. Enjoy it! Have a good day!

[cowman]

No, still getting out. Never had to do with BSE, more of a health issue. And guess what I'm selling my cows for? ZERO dollars!
Seems I have a reputation as a naysayer here and am not a happy camper. Which I will agree is true when it comes to agriculture. It truly is a dog!
However the oil business is booming and the royalty checks are becoming profitable. My little partnership in a concession stand was a winner and looking forward to getting another one on the road.
Lately involved in a proposed bio-digestor and looking forward to working on that! Still intend to get away with my SO to Thailand this winter for a month, so I guees things are going okay for me.
I'm sorry if I don't go along with some of the opinions on this site! And if I try to share how I see how poor of a return agriculture is, I hope I haven't offended anyone? We all see the world through different lenses I guess?

[kpb]

cowman, you are completely correct when it comes to calf prices--the rising Cdn. dollar has a huge impact that people do not generally consider. I'm surprised that fat prices are as high as they are. I really don't understand why, when there are so few bidders, the price isn't about 40 cents less so the packers can maximize their profits. It seems like a basic law of supply and demand to me. Any thoughts?

[pandiana]

Unfortunately, it is not the dollars that go in the pocket but the dollars that stay in the pocket that determine whether the prices are good enough to sustain your enterprise. The rise in the cost of doing business and the cost of living will insure that profits will be marginal to non existant.

[jensend]

kpb - consider calf prices south of the line now and you'll see that the rising canadian dollar would have been largely offset by the inflation in american prices. this is what is going to be the hangover from all of this: our dollar is going against us and we have missed out on what may well be the highest calf prices ever. we're going to go down without having seen the top. montana calf markets could have carried our calves at the same prices as two years ago even with the dollar.

[grassfarmer]

Don't you see the irony of your post Cowman? Telling us that current calf prices aren't too bad if we adjust them against the US$? At a time when the US border being closed has instumental in causing this price slump. Using yesterdays figures from Alberta Ag. a 700lb steer in Nebraska is bringing $1000 Cdn where one in Alberta is bringing $630 - enough reason for us not to be happy. So much for the ABP/CCA bs of us all being one big integrated happy marketplace.

[bombay_43]

I personally, like to hear from you Cowman. Some may see you as a "naysayer", but I think you are a realist! Why paint a rosy picture in agriculture, if it just is not there?

I know that people on this forum see me as a pesimist, but I too call it as I see it.

As Grassfarmer says, it is an ironic post, when we think of the great money calf prices as bring in US dollars, and us being locked out, but I think your post did exactly what you intended it to do.... make us all think!

Keep posting cowman, I don't like to wear the rose colored glasses either!

[bombay_43]

cowman, one thing that I think we have to take into account is the high cost of operating. Fuel bills, electricity etc. are considerably higher than when the dollar was 63 cents.

[cowman]

I see there are alot of different views on this issue of the Canadian dollar. I will confess that whole exchange thing confuses me at times! I guess the ideal situation would be if Canada and the US had a common currency?
And while defacto we are getting more "American dollars" for our calves this year than last, it doesn't necessarily convert into more buying power? I suspect someone is making one hell of a lot more money due to this change in the value of the dollar?
Now using my formula for calves/Canadian dollar and moving it the other way on gasoline you would see instead of paying 80 cents/liter in 2004 C dollars we are paying $1.02/liter in 2003 C dollars. I believe in 2003 gas was in that 63 cent range? So this is a huge increase?
Lost in all this mix is how is our currency doing in comparison to the other currencies? The pound, the yen, and the mark? Is our dollars rise due to our economic performance and good government or is it due to America crashing? I think we should all understand that America has been sort of in a downward spiral economically due to their little "adventure" in Iraq? You don't take that many billions of dollars out of the economy without consequences?
And lastly kpb: I don't have the answers to why the packers have kept prices at the level they have. Perhaps they realize they need to finesse this thing a bit if they want to have any kind of cattle industry left in Canada? They need to keep that producer, producing! If they throw him out of business, eventually they too are out of business?
I guess the trick is to grind the producer down as hard as they can without killing him?