Possible Mad Cow Case In USA

[farmers_son]

The probabality that this cow actually has BSE is higher than the two previous instances when a U.S. cow tested non-negative last June. Since then the USDA changed its reporting protocols so that now the announcement is not made until the suspect cow has failed two rapid tests. This cow still could be proven negative by the third gold standard test but it is less likely. This cow already has had two strikes, third strike she's out and we are in a new ball game.

I take some small comfort that Veneman has apparently indicated the cow has no links to Canada. Otherwise we should have CFIA people in the U.S. right now monitoring the situation.

[jensend]

i'm not counting on anything right now. i have to wonder if veneman's statement said no indication of canadian link 'at this time' or some other noncommital sort of assurance. if it's a positive there will be some volatility at least for a while.

[grassfarmer]

farmers_son, did we have CFIA people in the US last December or was it all done and dusted before any Canadian had any input?

[farmers_son]

If I recall the timeline for the Holstein in Washington last December, the cow tested positive early in December but there was no announcement of a conclusive result until just before Christmas. After two or three days of limit down moves on the CME there is an announcement that the cow had a Canadian tag in her ear. My understanding was that the CFIA became involved only after that time. Given that past experience I would hope that this time either Canada was ruled out immediately or the CFIA is down in the U.S. checking out that cows ear to make sure she doesn’t get a Canadian passport post-mortem.

Shirley McClellan said so far there is no evidence to suggest the suspected case originated in a cow from Canada.
"There has been no suggestion of Canadian involvement. None," she said. According to the USDA, steps have been taken to trace where the animal came from and to identify other animals that may have been in the same herd. Obviously if this latest cow had a Canadian tag in her ear that is very important information. Given the demonstrated inability of the U.S. industry to trace the origin of any of their livestock, the U.S. was "very fortunate" to have been able to pin that last cow on Canada.

Perhaps it is a non-issue "At this point in time our gut reaction is it is 50/50 for a positive (result)," said Jim Robb, agriculture economist at the Livestock Marketing Information Center. But luck will not be on the beef industry’s side every time. Eventually the U.S., maybe Canada is going to find another conclusive positive BSE cow. Without wishing ill on anyone, next time it is the Americans turn. Given the laws of probability it should be the Americans turn about the next 7 to 10 times.

[cowman]

Why is this a surprize? We knew it was probably going to happen?
Hopefully we will all act in a rational manner and not go crazy, like the last couple of cases? Sooner or later we have to start treating this thing like a fact of life and deal with it?
About the last thing we need right now is some half baked moron babbling away about how it is a "Canadian problem" or for that matter that it is an "American problem"?
The fact is we(North America) have a problem? And we need to deal with it?
If the test works then fine lets do the bloody test! $20 does not seem like a big price to pay to get things back to normal? And if Cargill/IBP are too cheap to do the test, or the federal government is too cheap to do the test....then fine I'll pay for the bloody test! This crap has gone on for too lomg! This whole thing is insane?

[kato]

I agree.

What's 20 bucks if it makes your 250 dollar cow into a 750 dollar cow?

[cowman]

A guy told me yesterday he heard that the cow is in Texas and she was born there. So I don't know if that matters or not? It still doesn't alter the fact that we have BSE in our continental cow herd. The only positive thing that might come out of it is the Americans will now have to get onside instead of trying to blame Canada?

[farmers_son]

While I agree cowman that it is a North American problem it is the Canadian producer who has been taking the hit in the pocket book.

If this cow were to test positive it doesn't become a testing issue but the fear and concern among Canadian producers is it will become a further delay the opening of the border issue.

I have seen comments by American producers actually hoping the cow is positive because they believe that would keep our live cattle out of their market for longer, thereby supporting their prices.

At least this time they kept the animal out of the food chain. And both Canada and the U.S. have been removing SRMs so there is no food safety issue. Keeping my fingers crossed that she is negative. That would be best for all.

[InAHurry]

What's 20 bucks if it makes your 250 dollar cow into a 750 dollar cow?

Honest question here, how is the test going to make the cow worth more? Until we see more (domestic) slaughter capacity developed I can't see it helping. First, slaughter capacity then perhaps testing IF it helps sell-export more beef. I also don't see any opportunity in the near future, to send it south then directly back north in sealed trucks.
How is our current system handling the ground meat - where/what are we using to blend with the trimmings of our fat cattle? In other words are we processing enough lean cattle to use in this blend or is it being imported? Have our cull processing lines been slowed down (compared to pre-BSE) as they are being more selective of the cuts/trim to work domestically with the product demand? Has the processing shifted to grind up more of the poorer cuts (ex-chuck) of a younger fat to be used for ground trim blend with overfat ground? I'm still trying to grasp how the processing system is working with the absence (or at least fewer number) of the older, cull product.

[tojo]

Just read a commentary by cbc reporter Laura Rance that may be of some interest. Re: US Protectionism in Hog/beef industries...... Check out www://farmcentre.com/english/cbc/index.htm?id=310. Should generate some discussion !!!!